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[color=red]DON'T PANIC[/color]
9 years ago
General
Once upon a time...
There is a a lot of fear about what a Trump presidency will mean (or even a Pence one, given Trump is apparently facing several pending trials). Personally, I don't think it's going to be quite as horrible as people expect primarily because the Republicans will find they've dug their own graves if any of the scenarios I'm going to entail here play out.
Let's start at the worst case scenario and move down:
He'll turn the country into a dictatorship!
The Second Amendment (of which Republicans are so fond) is there specifically to prevent this. It is, basically, the absolute final resort - if all else fails, if every rule of law is somehow overturned, the people have the right to bear arms - and fight to win back their country. The Republicans would be absolutely doomed if they are responsible for causing a war. People might argue the government has the military. What people tend to forget is the military is pledged to serve and defend the Constitution, not the president. The idea that any of the Senators or Representatives are going to allow this to happen is simply listening to boundless fears.
He'll get rid of Affordable Health Care!
Republicans have been salivating over this ever since it was enacted. It may even come to pass. However, the Republicans had better have something to replace it with or they will be facing the wrath of millions of angry voters who are now suddenly without medical coverage. People do not like seeing their loved ones suffer or die from treatable illnesses and injuries because they couldn't afford to get medical help.
He'll dismantle consumer protections!
Again, it's possible but if it happens there will, again, be millions of angry voters who are upset they are no longer protected from predatory lenders and other such things. No one likes being swindled, and blame will fall squarely on the shoulders of those who let it happen.
He'll back out of climate agreements, dismantle the EPA, and open federally held lands to development!
Once again, a likely scenario, even more so than the above. However, the US isn't the only one in the climate pact (which, technically, is only an agreement anyway and not legally binding) and if the US is going to turn its back others might too - or they might not. If every other country in the world keeps to it, it'll just reduce the power of the US in world affairs - which might not be so bad overall. As for the EPA, the complaints are always about business costs for, basically, not putting pollutants in the air and water. Situations like in Flint, Michigan would probably become more common, but, again, people aren't going to sit idly by while their water becomes undrinkable and air becomes unbreathable. If the federal government won't ensure clean air and water, they'll demand their State do so. If the State refuses there's going to be a lot of anger and backlash. Similarly, opening of federal lands will cause problems short term, but people who like visiting national parks are going to get very angry if they are desecrated. This isn't even starting on Native American territories where the population isn't going to sit still for it.
They'll deport everyone!
Antidiscrimination laws and simple impracticality aside, you will still have lots and lots of people left who will now be very, very angry their friends/family/loved ones are no longer in this country.
They'll ban/brand Muslims or anyone that looks Muslim.
Unconstitutional. Even assuming a Conservative justice for the Supreme Court, it won't happen and if it does you, once again, end up with lots of angry people calling for Republican heads at the ballots.
They'll repeal Roe vs Wade!
It would take a case going to and being accepted by the Supreme Court to do this. Even if they manage to succeed (which would assume the Court takes up such a case and rules as they want), you will again face the wrath of many, many angry voters.
They'll repeal gay marriage!
Once again, it would take a case going to and being accepted by the Supreme Court to do this. And, again, even were they to succeed the disaster it would cause in terms of who's married and who's not married would not be worth it. Lots more people are accepting of same-sex relationships than even a decade ago, and there will (again) be lots and lots of angry voters upset that they no longer can share taxes or adopt kids or that their friends or loved ones can't do this. Plus, even if the federal law was struck down the State laws would still be in place.
In short, the Republicans need to thread very, very carefully now that they have full control of the government. Anything they do is going to be affect their voters somehow and if it affects them negatively they will pretty much guarantee that come midterm elections in 2018 their power is going to be in danger. They may not care about that or become smug about their majority, but if they aren't careful they can very easily lose their power.
Let's start at the worst case scenario and move down:
He'll turn the country into a dictatorship!
The Second Amendment (of which Republicans are so fond) is there specifically to prevent this. It is, basically, the absolute final resort - if all else fails, if every rule of law is somehow overturned, the people have the right to bear arms - and fight to win back their country. The Republicans would be absolutely doomed if they are responsible for causing a war. People might argue the government has the military. What people tend to forget is the military is pledged to serve and defend the Constitution, not the president. The idea that any of the Senators or Representatives are going to allow this to happen is simply listening to boundless fears.
He'll get rid of Affordable Health Care!
Republicans have been salivating over this ever since it was enacted. It may even come to pass. However, the Republicans had better have something to replace it with or they will be facing the wrath of millions of angry voters who are now suddenly without medical coverage. People do not like seeing their loved ones suffer or die from treatable illnesses and injuries because they couldn't afford to get medical help.
He'll dismantle consumer protections!
Again, it's possible but if it happens there will, again, be millions of angry voters who are upset they are no longer protected from predatory lenders and other such things. No one likes being swindled, and blame will fall squarely on the shoulders of those who let it happen.
He'll back out of climate agreements, dismantle the EPA, and open federally held lands to development!
Once again, a likely scenario, even more so than the above. However, the US isn't the only one in the climate pact (which, technically, is only an agreement anyway and not legally binding) and if the US is going to turn its back others might too - or they might not. If every other country in the world keeps to it, it'll just reduce the power of the US in world affairs - which might not be so bad overall. As for the EPA, the complaints are always about business costs for, basically, not putting pollutants in the air and water. Situations like in Flint, Michigan would probably become more common, but, again, people aren't going to sit idly by while their water becomes undrinkable and air becomes unbreathable. If the federal government won't ensure clean air and water, they'll demand their State do so. If the State refuses there's going to be a lot of anger and backlash. Similarly, opening of federal lands will cause problems short term, but people who like visiting national parks are going to get very angry if they are desecrated. This isn't even starting on Native American territories where the population isn't going to sit still for it.
They'll deport everyone!
Antidiscrimination laws and simple impracticality aside, you will still have lots and lots of people left who will now be very, very angry their friends/family/loved ones are no longer in this country.
They'll ban/brand Muslims or anyone that looks Muslim.
Unconstitutional. Even assuming a Conservative justice for the Supreme Court, it won't happen and if it does you, once again, end up with lots of angry people calling for Republican heads at the ballots.
They'll repeal Roe vs Wade!
It would take a case going to and being accepted by the Supreme Court to do this. Even if they manage to succeed (which would assume the Court takes up such a case and rules as they want), you will again face the wrath of many, many angry voters.
They'll repeal gay marriage!
Once again, it would take a case going to and being accepted by the Supreme Court to do this. And, again, even were they to succeed the disaster it would cause in terms of who's married and who's not married would not be worth it. Lots more people are accepting of same-sex relationships than even a decade ago, and there will (again) be lots and lots of angry voters upset that they no longer can share taxes or adopt kids or that their friends or loved ones can't do this. Plus, even if the federal law was struck down the State laws would still be in place.
In short, the Republicans need to thread very, very carefully now that they have full control of the government. Anything they do is going to be affect their voters somehow and if it affects them negatively they will pretty much guarantee that come midterm elections in 2018 their power is going to be in danger. They may not care about that or become smug about their majority, but if they aren't careful they can very easily lose their power.
Indagare
~indagare
OP
I fully expect him to remain in office the full four years. I just wanted to provide a list of reasons people may be panicking a wee bit early.
Indagare
~indagare
OP
*nods* I suspect things are going to be more 'business as usual' than 'end of the world'.
