So, 2024 primaries have been interesting n some ways. In some ways predictable and in some ways a few surprises. I could comment about the Republican field winnowing down quickly and the shocking amounts of money spent on candidates like DeSantis (honestly seems more efficient to just incinerate piles of cash).

To me Trump winning the primaries was not assured. Likely perhaps but not assured. At this point the former President seems likely to have secured the delegates but if you had asked me in 2023 I would have said it was likely but any number of events could have interrupted it that are hard to predict.

I do think a comment could be made about the egregious amounts of money flowing into these primary campaigns. The very wealthy donors willing to put this money in raises an eyebrow or two. No one though will be hailed a genius for saying at least a few of these campaigns are scams for over priced consultants to rake in money. 2024 in the primaries does feel like an example of that so far. Honestly though more power to some of these consultants making bank off gullible wealthy people who can’t see the obvious. There is also much to say abut the vanishingly small numbers of people going to the primaries and caucuses compared to the last few decades.

As I have said many times before to me primaries and caucuses are more a measurement of the organizational skill of a campaign, the interest of highly motivated supporters, donor interest, and a testing ground for various talking points and defensive arguments. It is folly to extrapolate too far from primaries as they all have very small pools of people in them and historically the turn out in raw numbers of people in a primary rarely reflects the general election turn out. A primary is great for knowing where dedicated interested people are in an election. The people who will volunteer for campaigns, who will convince others to vote, and who will donate. It rarely tells you much about the general voting population (most of who won’t be paying real attention until September or October 2024.

Still, I won’t dismiss out of hand some of the naddering after South Carolina for the Republicans. I wouldn’t build a narrative from the results but I’d at least say they’re noteworthy and worth conversation. If I worked on a campaign I’d be paying closer attention and looking if it confirmed some trends.

We’ll see how Michigan does tonight with their primary. With the GOP of Michigan in a very public and messy internal dispute and reports of cash flow issues that certainly raises an eyebrow on what might happen. Trump is going to do well enough and likely better then South Carolina but I do have questions about how delegates will be handled and what happens.

Biden meanwhile has been walking with a very strong finish in every primary. Again, like the Republicans, turn out has been anemic. However, Biden is the incumbent so that is much more normal. His major challenger in the Democratic party is Dean Phillips who clearly has no understanding of the critiques against Biden within the Democratic party

There is a push in Michigan to vote in the Democratic Primary as Uncommitted as a protest against Biden’s handling of the current events in Israel and the brutal assaults on Palestinian civilians caught between the terrorist organization of Hamas and the criminally incompetent Netanyahu regime in Israel. I think that is a valid protest in a state with a very significant Palestinian population. It has clearly gotten a lot of national attention with NPR, MSNBC, and other news orgs covering the story and the protest votes. I’d honestly call that a win for those organizers raising the profile of their cause. We will see what the turn out numbers and results are, I’d be very hesitant to assign a percentile number (because very small turn out numbers make that hard). Obama in 2012 got 10.69% of the Democratic Primary as Uncommitted (20,000 + votes). As I said just getting the news coverage is pretty much the best scenario.

I also think this uncommitted plan was enacted a bit too late. To organize a protest vote like this you need people educated on how to do it because voting Uncommitted is atypical behavior and needs some level of training. People have to know how to request the ballot they will use and how to fill it out. Relatively easy but it needs training.

I think the news media will find a way to chew on this story. You can’t write Trump and Biden still winning majorities, that’s boring and wont get attention. Chaos in the local party is one headline. Another is the Uncommitted protest. Much like Trump “only” getting 61% in South Carolina it is noteworthy but very easy to exaggerate the proportional importance.

We’ll see what happens.