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Oscar picks 2009
16 years ago
General
Been doing this on facebook for a few years; might as well post it here too.
The third time around, I’m better prepared than ever to offer valid opinions on the Oscar nominees, if not any more likely to improve my accuracy in predicting the winners. Indeed, I will be hard pressed to do better than the 84% I managed last year. All the acting awards seem pretty obvious, but beyond that there are quite a few tricky ones. In any case, I’ve done as much homework as possible, having seen 7 of the 10 (that’s right 10) Best Picture nominees.
And that is the biggest novelty of this year’s awards – the expanded Best Picture field. This is the first time this has been done since the ceremony for 1943, in which the top award went to Casablanca. The idea behind this was to improve Oscar’s appeal to the masses by allowing more populist films to make the cut. Ironically, this year two quite popular films (Avatar and Inglourious Basterds) would have been nominated to a field of five anyway. The rest just seems watered down. One of the results of this move has been the second-ever animated feature nominated for Best Picture… Up? Really? Up? I love animation, it is well known, but in the decade that gave us Chicken Run, Shrek and Happy Feet it seems pretty anti-climatic that this drought should be broken by a totally decent, but often meandering and cookie-cutter sentimental Pixar product. Even this year, there was another much more deserving candidate – more on that later.
The genesis of the Best Picture expansion (art-house vs populist) also plays out in the two top contenders for Best Picture and Director. We have the highly regarded The Hurt Locker and the mega-blockbuster Avatar – the highest grossing film of all time both domestically and internationally. Avatar fans may well tune in and be disappointed to see a film they’ve never seen or heard of steal the top prizes. It should be an interesting night, to say the least. Once again, for reference I’ve included tomatometer percentages and IMDB weighted mean votes for each film. These reflect critical and popular opinion, respectively.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Blind Side 70% 7.8
District 9 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire 91% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4
Up in the Air 90% 7.9
First, I should mention the ‘instant runoff’ form of balloting that will be used in this (and only this) category. Instead of voting for one film, voters list out the 10 in order of preference. For example, my ballot (so far) would read:
1.Inglourious Basterds
2.District 9
3.Avatar
4.The Hurt Locker
5.A Serious Man
6.Up
7.An Education
If one film gets a majority of first place votes, then it wins. If not, the last place film is dropped and its backers have their second place votes counted. This goes on until something has over 50% of the votes. This highly favors The Hurt Locker (and possibly Inglourious Basterds) over Avatar. Avatar is a polarizing film that is seen by some all spectacle and no substance. It is more likely than the other two to get a large number of 8th, 9th and 10th place votes, which hurt its chances. Personally of those two, I prefer Avatar. Not that I generally like blockbusters over small films, but I just thought it was better. Go figure.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – this one would solve the dilemma of art vs populism as it is high in both entertainment and literary merit. Absolutely brilliant - both a study in and an example of film as historical propaganda (He who controls the past controls the present). It’s not about war – it’s about movies! And might just be a dark horse in this category.
BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, 'Avatar' 82% 8.5
Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0
Quentin Tarantino, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4
Lee Daniels, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Jason Reitman, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
You can think of these as the five ‘real’ best pic nominees. Two Canadians, a woman, a black guy and Quentin Tarantino make up this interesting field. Like Best Picture, it could go either way between ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow. Tarantino is a dark horse.
Prediction: Katherine Bigelow – Oscar loves to shatter glass ceilings and The Hurt Locker is seen as good enough to warrant that. Avatar was quite an achievement, but Cameron has one already and his movie is seen as trivial (it’s James Joyce compared to Titanic, but never mind…)
Should win: Quentin Tarantino – not his best work but good enough that he deserves this award. He may have to settle with another one for writing, though.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
George Clooney, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Colin Firth, 'A Single Man' 85% 8.1
Morgan Freeman, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Jeremy Renner, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0
I’ve only seen Renner in The Hurt Locker, so not much personal opinion here. Freeman looks perfect as Nelson Mandella.
Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart – he’s been winning everything else
Should win: Don’t know
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side' 70% 7.8
Helen Mirren, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Carey Mulligan, 'An Education' 95% 7.7
Gabourey Sidibe, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia 75% 7.3
Meryl Streep did a good impression of Julia Childs. Mulligan’s performance was highly regarded, but I thought she was miscast. She’s 24 playing a 16-year-old, but she looks to me to be in her early 30s at least.
Prediction: Sandra Bullock – haven’t seen The Blind Side yet, but it’s got all the buzz here. This is just an example of statistical determinism…. If you appear in 3000 movies, eventually you win an Oscar! This will also the biggest victory of the night for populism.
Should win: Don’t know
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Woody Harrelson, 'The Messenger' 90% 7.6
Christopher Plummer, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Stanley Tucci, 'The Lovely Bones' 32% 6.7
Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4
Would have loved to see Jackie Earle Hayley in Watchmen among these… oh well.
Prediction: Christoph Waltz – a lock. Creepy, eccentric, weirdly charming, the banality of Evil personified… and great in 4 different languages. That’s a bingo!
Should win: Waltz – the only one I’ve seen, but again, so great. It will be a three-peat for Pure Evil in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, 'Nine' 37% 6.4
Vera Farmiga, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Maggie Gyllenhaal, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
Anna Kendrick, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Mo'nique, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
I’ve seen none of these, but by all accounts Mo’nique is as big a lock as Waltz
Prediction: Mo’nique in Precious – she only needs one name; that’s how confident she is.
Should win: Can’t say.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Coraline 89% 7.9
Fantastic Mr. Fox 93% 8.2
The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
The Secret of Kells 100% 7.6
Up 98% 8.4
This was a strong year for animation. Even with five nominees, many notable films didn’t make the cut including Miyazakis’s Ponyo, the mega-blockbuster Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, the visually innovative Monsters vs. Aliens, the popular Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, and Robert Zemeckis’ uncanny adaptation of A Christmas Carol. For the first time, two animated films (Up and Coraline) made the AFI’s top ten list. However, neither of these deserves to win, in my opinion.
Prediction: Up – a Best Picture nominee and has won most major predictors… Up winning this award is the global warming of the Oscars – a disaster that I can see coming perfectly well, but just can’t seem to do anything about.
Should win: Fantastic Mr. Fox – one of the best movies of the year and my favorite from Wes Anderson. Unique, very funny and leaves you feeling great. This should have got Best Picture and adapted screenplay nominations as well. It could be a spoiler, but its only chance is if the voters are as Pixar-fatigued as I am. Another very dark horse is The Secret of Kells – if it was good enough to get a completely unexpected nomination once voters had seen it, could it be good enough to get a completely unexpected win? Finally, I haven’t seen The Princess and the Frog, but I’ve heard good things.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar 82% 8.5
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 83% 7.4
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglorious Basterds 89% 8.4
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1
This is interesting. With its use of 3-D, Avatar is a possibility, but is problematic because so much of it is completely computer generated. If it wins, we risk redefining what cinematography is. I, for one, think it should involve an actual camera.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker – I think Avatar will get its due in the visual effects category.
Should win: Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds
WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
The Messenger 90% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4
Avatar (like Titanic) fails to get even a nomination for screenplay. This one is between Inglourious Basterds and The Hurt Locker and will be much closer than it should be.
Prediction: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds: Brilliant writing in four different languages; it actually uses language as a plot device in a few places. You really have to know the nuances of English, French, German, (and a bit of Italian) to get the most out of this movie.
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – would be a travesty if it didn’t. There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the writing in Hurt Locker
WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9 - 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
In the Loop 93% 7.7
Precious 91% 7.6
Up in the Air 90% 7.9
Terrible snubs here include, Watchmen (“Beneath me, this awful city, it screams like an abattoir full of retarded children”) and Fantastic Mr. Fox (“If what I think is happening, is happening, it better not be.”)
Prediction: Up in the Air
Should win: It’s the only one I’ve seen, but I’ll say District 9. A very accurate depiction of the Republic of South Africa (if it had aliens), I’m told, and utilizes a lot of local dialects effectively.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Almost There” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Down in New Orleans” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Loin de Paname” - Paris 36 - 59% 6.4
“Take It All” - Nine 37% 6.4
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart”) - Crazy Heart 92% 7.8
No live performances this year, so we won’t get to see Randy Newman singing his pair of nominated song from The Princess and the Frog. I would like to have seen there commenting on the show as it went a la Family Guy ;)
Prediction: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Should win: None of these really wowed me, but Down in New Orleans was pretty good.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Avatar – James Horner 82% 8.5
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat 93% 8.2
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders 97% 8.0
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer 69% 7.6
Up - Michael Giacchino 98% 8.4
Prediction: Up – Michael Giacchino of LOST fame seems to be winning a lot of awards for this one.
Should win: Anything for Fantastic Mr. Fox will be good in my view; it definitely has a great soundtrack overall.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 - 90% 8.3
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Seen ‘em all.
Prediction: Avatar maybe?
ART DIRECTION
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
Sherlock Holmes 69% 7.6
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Avatar has the same problem here as the Star Wars prequels; so much of it is contrived. Still, this award covers both the conceptual aspects as well as the sets themselves and there aren’t really other strong contenders.
Prediction: Avatar
SOUND MIXING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 20% 6.1
This is the only category I haven’t yet predicted correctly. It should be obvious this time, but you never know… Why is Transformers 2 nominated? By all accounts that sound was one of the worst things about that reprehensible film – turned up on blast in the theaters, the shriek of steel on steel is quite harsh.
Prediction: Avatar
SOUND EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Up 98% 8.4
Sometimes these two split – sometimes they don’t. I’ll keep it simple.
Prediction: Avatar
Short Film (Live Action)
The Door 8.0
Instead of Abracadabra 7.9
Kavi 7.4
Miracle Fish 7.3
The New Tenants 7.8
????????????????????????????
Short Film (Animated)
French Roast 7.2
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty 6.5
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) 7.5
Logorama 7.9
A Matter of Loaf and Death 7.7
Don’t bet against Wallace and Gromit (the last one), but I’ll skip this one.
MAKEUP
Il Divo 92% 7.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Prediction: The popular Star Trek will pick one up here.
Foreign Language Film
Ajami 97% 6.9
El Secreto de Sus Ojos 8.4
The Milk of Sorrow 86% 7.0
Un Prophete 94% 8.1
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1
????????????????????????
FILM EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 – 90% 8.3
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious 91% 7.6
Prediction: The Hurt Locker – often the best picture winner gets this one
Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province 7.2
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant 6.6
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin 8.0
????????????????????????
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ 96% 8.0
The Cove 96% 8.6
Food, Inc. 97% 7.9
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers 100% 7.7
Which Way Home 100% 8.0
All of these look quite interesting actually. I’ve seen the two main contenders – The Cove and Food Inc. Both are about important isssues, but The Cove is easily the more cinematic of the two. A true story of a tremendously courageous people confronting unimaginable Evil and moral terror. What little criticism there is against it says that it is one-sided (in the way that Schindler’s List was one-sided, I guess). It’s a truly unique piece of cinema and one of the few movies that might just honestly make the world a better place. Maybe the most important movie of the year.
Prediction: The Cove
Should win: The Cove
COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star 83% 7.3
Coco before Chanel 64% 6.6
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Prediction: The Young Victoria – a popular period for this category
The third time around, I’m better prepared than ever to offer valid opinions on the Oscar nominees, if not any more likely to improve my accuracy in predicting the winners. Indeed, I will be hard pressed to do better than the 84% I managed last year. All the acting awards seem pretty obvious, but beyond that there are quite a few tricky ones. In any case, I’ve done as much homework as possible, having seen 7 of the 10 (that’s right 10) Best Picture nominees.
And that is the biggest novelty of this year’s awards – the expanded Best Picture field. This is the first time this has been done since the ceremony for 1943, in which the top award went to Casablanca. The idea behind this was to improve Oscar’s appeal to the masses by allowing more populist films to make the cut. Ironically, this year two quite popular films (Avatar and Inglourious Basterds) would have been nominated to a field of five anyway. The rest just seems watered down. One of the results of this move has been the second-ever animated feature nominated for Best Picture… Up? Really? Up? I love animation, it is well known, but in the decade that gave us Chicken Run, Shrek and Happy Feet it seems pretty anti-climatic that this drought should be broken by a totally decent, but often meandering and cookie-cutter sentimental Pixar product. Even this year, there was another much more deserving candidate – more on that later.
The genesis of the Best Picture expansion (art-house vs populist) also plays out in the two top contenders for Best Picture and Director. We have the highly regarded The Hurt Locker and the mega-blockbuster Avatar – the highest grossing film of all time both domestically and internationally. Avatar fans may well tune in and be disappointed to see a film they’ve never seen or heard of steal the top prizes. It should be an interesting night, to say the least. Once again, for reference I’ve included tomatometer percentages and IMDB weighted mean votes for each film. These reflect critical and popular opinion, respectively.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Blind Side 70% 7.8
District 9 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire 91% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4
Up in the Air 90% 7.9
First, I should mention the ‘instant runoff’ form of balloting that will be used in this (and only this) category. Instead of voting for one film, voters list out the 10 in order of preference. For example, my ballot (so far) would read:
1.Inglourious Basterds
2.District 9
3.Avatar
4.The Hurt Locker
5.A Serious Man
6.Up
7.An Education
If one film gets a majority of first place votes, then it wins. If not, the last place film is dropped and its backers have their second place votes counted. This goes on until something has over 50% of the votes. This highly favors The Hurt Locker (and possibly Inglourious Basterds) over Avatar. Avatar is a polarizing film that is seen by some all spectacle and no substance. It is more likely than the other two to get a large number of 8th, 9th and 10th place votes, which hurt its chances. Personally of those two, I prefer Avatar. Not that I generally like blockbusters over small films, but I just thought it was better. Go figure.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – this one would solve the dilemma of art vs populism as it is high in both entertainment and literary merit. Absolutely brilliant - both a study in and an example of film as historical propaganda (He who controls the past controls the present). It’s not about war – it’s about movies! And might just be a dark horse in this category.
BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, 'Avatar' 82% 8.5
Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0
Quentin Tarantino, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4
Lee Daniels, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Jason Reitman, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
You can think of these as the five ‘real’ best pic nominees. Two Canadians, a woman, a black guy and Quentin Tarantino make up this interesting field. Like Best Picture, it could go either way between ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow. Tarantino is a dark horse.
Prediction: Katherine Bigelow – Oscar loves to shatter glass ceilings and The Hurt Locker is seen as good enough to warrant that. Avatar was quite an achievement, but Cameron has one already and his movie is seen as trivial (it’s James Joyce compared to Titanic, but never mind…)
Should win: Quentin Tarantino – not his best work but good enough that he deserves this award. He may have to settle with another one for writing, though.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
George Clooney, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Colin Firth, 'A Single Man' 85% 8.1
Morgan Freeman, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Jeremy Renner, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0
I’ve only seen Renner in The Hurt Locker, so not much personal opinion here. Freeman looks perfect as Nelson Mandella.
Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart – he’s been winning everything else
Should win: Don’t know
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side' 70% 7.8
Helen Mirren, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Carey Mulligan, 'An Education' 95% 7.7
Gabourey Sidibe, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia 75% 7.3
Meryl Streep did a good impression of Julia Childs. Mulligan’s performance was highly regarded, but I thought she was miscast. She’s 24 playing a 16-year-old, but she looks to me to be in her early 30s at least.
Prediction: Sandra Bullock – haven’t seen The Blind Side yet, but it’s got all the buzz here. This is just an example of statistical determinism…. If you appear in 3000 movies, eventually you win an Oscar! This will also the biggest victory of the night for populism.
Should win: Don’t know
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Woody Harrelson, 'The Messenger' 90% 7.6
Christopher Plummer, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Stanley Tucci, 'The Lovely Bones' 32% 6.7
Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4
Would have loved to see Jackie Earle Hayley in Watchmen among these… oh well.
Prediction: Christoph Waltz – a lock. Creepy, eccentric, weirdly charming, the banality of Evil personified… and great in 4 different languages. That’s a bingo!
Should win: Waltz – the only one I’ve seen, but again, so great. It will be a three-peat for Pure Evil in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, 'Nine' 37% 6.4
Vera Farmiga, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Maggie Gyllenhaal, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
Anna Kendrick, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Mo'nique, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
I’ve seen none of these, but by all accounts Mo’nique is as big a lock as Waltz
Prediction: Mo’nique in Precious – she only needs one name; that’s how confident she is.
Should win: Can’t say.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Coraline 89% 7.9
Fantastic Mr. Fox 93% 8.2
The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
The Secret of Kells 100% 7.6
Up 98% 8.4
This was a strong year for animation. Even with five nominees, many notable films didn’t make the cut including Miyazakis’s Ponyo, the mega-blockbuster Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, the visually innovative Monsters vs. Aliens, the popular Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, and Robert Zemeckis’ uncanny adaptation of A Christmas Carol. For the first time, two animated films (Up and Coraline) made the AFI’s top ten list. However, neither of these deserves to win, in my opinion.
Prediction: Up – a Best Picture nominee and has won most major predictors… Up winning this award is the global warming of the Oscars – a disaster that I can see coming perfectly well, but just can’t seem to do anything about.
Should win: Fantastic Mr. Fox – one of the best movies of the year and my favorite from Wes Anderson. Unique, very funny and leaves you feeling great. This should have got Best Picture and adapted screenplay nominations as well. It could be a spoiler, but its only chance is if the voters are as Pixar-fatigued as I am. Another very dark horse is The Secret of Kells – if it was good enough to get a completely unexpected nomination once voters had seen it, could it be good enough to get a completely unexpected win? Finally, I haven’t seen The Princess and the Frog, but I’ve heard good things.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar 82% 8.5
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 83% 7.4
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglorious Basterds 89% 8.4
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1
This is interesting. With its use of 3-D, Avatar is a possibility, but is problematic because so much of it is completely computer generated. If it wins, we risk redefining what cinematography is. I, for one, think it should involve an actual camera.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker – I think Avatar will get its due in the visual effects category.
Should win: Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds
WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
The Messenger 90% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4
Avatar (like Titanic) fails to get even a nomination for screenplay. This one is between Inglourious Basterds and The Hurt Locker and will be much closer than it should be.
Prediction: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds: Brilliant writing in four different languages; it actually uses language as a plot device in a few places. You really have to know the nuances of English, French, German, (and a bit of Italian) to get the most out of this movie.
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – would be a travesty if it didn’t. There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the writing in Hurt Locker
WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9 - 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
In the Loop 93% 7.7
Precious 91% 7.6
Up in the Air 90% 7.9
Terrible snubs here include, Watchmen (“Beneath me, this awful city, it screams like an abattoir full of retarded children”) and Fantastic Mr. Fox (“If what I think is happening, is happening, it better not be.”)
Prediction: Up in the Air
Should win: It’s the only one I’ve seen, but I’ll say District 9. A very accurate depiction of the Republic of South Africa (if it had aliens), I’m told, and utilizes a lot of local dialects effectively.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Almost There” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Down in New Orleans” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Loin de Paname” - Paris 36 - 59% 6.4
“Take It All” - Nine 37% 6.4
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart”) - Crazy Heart 92% 7.8
No live performances this year, so we won’t get to see Randy Newman singing his pair of nominated song from The Princess and the Frog. I would like to have seen there commenting on the show as it went a la Family Guy ;)
Prediction: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Should win: None of these really wowed me, but Down in New Orleans was pretty good.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Avatar – James Horner 82% 8.5
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat 93% 8.2
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders 97% 8.0
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer 69% 7.6
Up - Michael Giacchino 98% 8.4
Prediction: Up – Michael Giacchino of LOST fame seems to be winning a lot of awards for this one.
Should win: Anything for Fantastic Mr. Fox will be good in my view; it definitely has a great soundtrack overall.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 - 90% 8.3
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Seen ‘em all.
Prediction: Avatar maybe?
ART DIRECTION
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
Sherlock Holmes 69% 7.6
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Avatar has the same problem here as the Star Wars prequels; so much of it is contrived. Still, this award covers both the conceptual aspects as well as the sets themselves and there aren’t really other strong contenders.
Prediction: Avatar
SOUND MIXING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 20% 6.1
This is the only category I haven’t yet predicted correctly. It should be obvious this time, but you never know… Why is Transformers 2 nominated? By all accounts that sound was one of the worst things about that reprehensible film – turned up on blast in the theaters, the shriek of steel on steel is quite harsh.
Prediction: Avatar
SOUND EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Up 98% 8.4
Sometimes these two split – sometimes they don’t. I’ll keep it simple.
Prediction: Avatar
Short Film (Live Action)
The Door 8.0
Instead of Abracadabra 7.9
Kavi 7.4
Miracle Fish 7.3
The New Tenants 7.8
????????????????????????????
Short Film (Animated)
French Roast 7.2
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty 6.5
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) 7.5
Logorama 7.9
A Matter of Loaf and Death 7.7
Don’t bet against Wallace and Gromit (the last one), but I’ll skip this one.
MAKEUP
Il Divo 92% 7.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Prediction: The popular Star Trek will pick one up here.
Foreign Language Film
Ajami 97% 6.9
El Secreto de Sus Ojos 8.4
The Milk of Sorrow 86% 7.0
Un Prophete 94% 8.1
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1
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FILM EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 – 90% 8.3
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious 91% 7.6
Prediction: The Hurt Locker – often the best picture winner gets this one
Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province 7.2
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant 6.6
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin 8.0
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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ 96% 8.0
The Cove 96% 8.6
Food, Inc. 97% 7.9
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers 100% 7.7
Which Way Home 100% 8.0
All of these look quite interesting actually. I’ve seen the two main contenders – The Cove and Food Inc. Both are about important isssues, but The Cove is easily the more cinematic of the two. A true story of a tremendously courageous people confronting unimaginable Evil and moral terror. What little criticism there is against it says that it is one-sided (in the way that Schindler’s List was one-sided, I guess). It’s a truly unique piece of cinema and one of the few movies that might just honestly make the world a better place. Maybe the most important movie of the year.
Prediction: The Cove
Should win: The Cove
COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star 83% 7.3
Coco before Chanel 64% 6.6
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Prediction: The Young Victoria – a popular period for this category
