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The Great Collapse: Day 979
15 years ago
General
I don't know why I'm writing this. Perhaps it is because I feel the need to record the thoughts that plague me throughout the day.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not depressed. Not at all. I've got a good job, a great community, and in general nothing to complain about, but I can't help but feel like I should be doing something more-- something greater with my life. It's not that I want greater personal accomplishment,(I do, but it's not something that greatly bothers me at the moment) it's more that I feel I need to work much harder to prepare myself and my friends for what's about to happen in society.
I am not referencing any 2012 apocalyptic prophecy bullshit here. What I'm referring to is a global economic collapse(and the ensuing social chaos left in its wake) that will be caused by a credit collapse that looks to be larger than the one that triggered the Great Depression. I started writing what I thought was a brief explanation of my views and how I reached them, but it rapidly turned into a novel and I realized there was no way I was going to get all my ideas out tonight.
For now, suffice to say that debt extension creates bubbles, and bubbles pop. Since debt extension causes the entire global economy to boom, a debt bubble collapse causes the entire global economy to crash. Furthermore, the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP has remained constant throughout most of the 20th century. There are only two time periods since the year 1900 where this ratio has bubbled(and this is made strikingly clear in the data) : 1921-1932, and 1982-present. This bubble has lasted over twice as long as the one that caused the Great Depression, and gone 3 times as high. What's more, while it's stopped growing over the past few years, it hasn't even really started to collapse yet. Based on this alone, I predict one thing for the economy in the coming years: PAIN.
Don't let politicians fool you-- there's not really anything that can be done about this now. The bubble should never have been allowed to get that big in the first place. In the mean time, I'm trying to figure out how best to approach what I fully expect to be a far worse economic period than the great depression. I don't really have enough money to make myself safe, so I'll try to stay mobile and keep up with the latest news. Hopefully I can avoid the worst of it.
But that's not good enough. I want to do more. Just because the financial system is grinding to a halt doesn't mean the economic activity supported by it has to. It just needs a new source of support. And yes, I'm well aware of how difficult it's going to be to develop and implement a completely new approach to the economic system, but as near as I can tell, right now nobody's even trying. Very few people even seem to realize what the economy is in the process of doing, and most of the people who do realize blame the wrong causes(usually in support of some political ideal or other).
This isn't really the venue for this type of discussion, I suppose, but I had to get my ideas out somewhere. I don't miss college, but I do miss having informed people from different fields around me to bounce ideas off of. I'll be back to regular posts later, I've just been thinking way too much about this NOT to post about it.
(Believe it or not, that was the radically shortened version of what I had originally wanted to post. Maybe I'll touch on the details in the future. Or maybe I should just never mention this again.)
Don't get me wrong, I'm not depressed. Not at all. I've got a good job, a great community, and in general nothing to complain about, but I can't help but feel like I should be doing something more-- something greater with my life. It's not that I want greater personal accomplishment,(I do, but it's not something that greatly bothers me at the moment) it's more that I feel I need to work much harder to prepare myself and my friends for what's about to happen in society.
I am not referencing any 2012 apocalyptic prophecy bullshit here. What I'm referring to is a global economic collapse(and the ensuing social chaos left in its wake) that will be caused by a credit collapse that looks to be larger than the one that triggered the Great Depression. I started writing what I thought was a brief explanation of my views and how I reached them, but it rapidly turned into a novel and I realized there was no way I was going to get all my ideas out tonight.
For now, suffice to say that debt extension creates bubbles, and bubbles pop. Since debt extension causes the entire global economy to boom, a debt bubble collapse causes the entire global economy to crash. Furthermore, the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP has remained constant throughout most of the 20th century. There are only two time periods since the year 1900 where this ratio has bubbled(and this is made strikingly clear in the data) : 1921-1932, and 1982-present. This bubble has lasted over twice as long as the one that caused the Great Depression, and gone 3 times as high. What's more, while it's stopped growing over the past few years, it hasn't even really started to collapse yet. Based on this alone, I predict one thing for the economy in the coming years: PAIN.
Don't let politicians fool you-- there's not really anything that can be done about this now. The bubble should never have been allowed to get that big in the first place. In the mean time, I'm trying to figure out how best to approach what I fully expect to be a far worse economic period than the great depression. I don't really have enough money to make myself safe, so I'll try to stay mobile and keep up with the latest news. Hopefully I can avoid the worst of it.
But that's not good enough. I want to do more. Just because the financial system is grinding to a halt doesn't mean the economic activity supported by it has to. It just needs a new source of support. And yes, I'm well aware of how difficult it's going to be to develop and implement a completely new approach to the economic system, but as near as I can tell, right now nobody's even trying. Very few people even seem to realize what the economy is in the process of doing, and most of the people who do realize blame the wrong causes(usually in support of some political ideal or other).
This isn't really the venue for this type of discussion, I suppose, but I had to get my ideas out somewhere. I don't miss college, but I do miss having informed people from different fields around me to bounce ideas off of. I'll be back to regular posts later, I've just been thinking way too much about this NOT to post about it.
(Believe it or not, that was the radically shortened version of what I had originally wanted to post. Maybe I'll touch on the details in the future. Or maybe I should just never mention this again.)
Portability is a good thing. Stability is another. The former I define as the ability to quickly get up and move and/or adapt and create or find new resources. The latter I define as the ability to stand strong where you are at and exploit the resources you have already.
With many of my friends talking about heading to the hills when all heck breaks loose, I've decided I'm better of staying where I'm at. I have land -- I can grow crops. Though I have a certain level of credit card debt that will take a few years to pay off, I have the ability to juggle funds between resources to manage it and I own my house outright. I still need to work on my storage systems -- like dig a root cellar, install a wood burning stove and stock up on solid fuels so I can do without power. I already have a supply of dry foods that will see me through the first few months of adversity and I have a stock of liquid fuels for cooking.
I have guns for hunting and other guns for self defense. I have silver for barter and I have skills I can offer to my neighbors in exchange for their cooperation, support and protection. Everyone will be heading into the hills -- especially those with favorite local hunting spots and I just see that as becoming a disaster as so many find each other on what each one thinks of as their "turf".
I also have books. History books new and old, from "both sides" so that our now fictionalized history cannot be electronically changed and that the original history and intent can be preserved.
How's that?
My less rational side says I should be willing to risk whatever I have to to prevent those sort of political consequences from affecting my community, even though I know I'll probably have no effect. And yet-- I feel like I've got to try, because if enough people do try, they will have an effect. An economic collapse doesn't have to devastate a state's political landscape if people don't lose their heads over it. And I know I'd be fighting an uphill-- possibly a hopeless --battle trying to keep people level-headed and organized while the basic supply chain that supports their community is breaking down, but I feel a moral obligation to try. There's no reason we have to revert back to some form of dictatorial government and/or start wars during all of this, but that will be what fear tends to encourage people to do, and that's what will happen if people stop acting to prevent it.