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Bellwether Counties
13 years ago
If you ask people from either the Obama camp or Romney camp, they will tell you this upcoming election will come down to 9 states. Romney has 191 electoral votes locked up, including Missouri, Arizona, and Indiana. As for Obama, 237 electoral votes are his. Ignore any claims that Michigan, Minnesota, or Pennsylvania are swing states as Romney hasn't spent ad money in any of those states since before the RNC Convention. This leaves 9 states that will decide who will be sworn into office come January.
Millions upon millions of Americans will tune in on the night of November 6 to see who wins what state. Watching the votes come in can be misleading. An example would be if the votes in rural Pennsylvania start coming in before the votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, and State College, it could look like the Keystone State could possibly break for Governor Romney. It's unwise to think that with 10% of the districts reporting from rural parts of the state can be an accurate sample of the state as a whole. The same could happen for President Obama in Missouri if votes from St. Louis and Kansas City are reported before the southern part of the Show Me State.
The solution: Look at bellwether counties in these 9 swing states when the polls close. They will give you a much better idea of how the state will go since they are a better indicator historically. Here are some of the important bellweather counties from these 9 swing states.
Colorado - Jefferson County
In 2008, Obama won the Rocky Mountain State by almost 9 points while Bush took Colorado by 4.7% in 2004. Jefferson County, just west of Denver, showed very similar numbers to the state as a whole in both elections. In 2008, Obama won the county by 9% and Bush won by 5.2% in 2004. Another county to look at is Ouray County in the southwest part of the state. Its numbers are in-line with the state as a whole, but its small population of 3,700 may cause concern.
Florida - Flagler County
Florida may be the toughest state to do this analysis for. In 2004, Oscoela County was a very good sample for the rest of the state. But in 2008, it gave 59% of its votes to Obama, who only won 52% throughout the rest of the Sunshine State. Flagler County isn't perfect, but it was one of 3 counties to go from red to blue between the '04 and '08 elections. In a state with constantly shifting populations, the area north of Daytona Beach is the best place to look for an idea of how the rest of the state will go.
Iowa - Marshall County
When Iowa switched from red to blue between 04 and 08, it took a ton of counties with it. So, you could theoritically throw a dart at map of Iowa and find a bellwether county. However, Marshall County is the most reliable. In the best two elections, it has never been off by more than 0.2% for any of the major candidates. Plus, with 20,000 voters, it makes it more reliable than Cedar County which is about half its size.
Nevada - Washoe County
This was pretty easy. Only one county changed colors between 2004 and 2008. While Washoe County includes the urban center of Reno, it also stretches all the way to the Oregon border, covering plenty of rural area. This makes Washoe County, the ideal bellwether county in the Silver State.
New Hampshire - Carroll County
Honestly, none of New Hampshire's 10 counties are good for guessing how the state will vote as a whole. However, of the 9 swings state, only New Hampshire and Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004. It's safe to assume that the Granite State is Obama's to lose. If Carroll County is close or in Romney's favor on election night, then it will require more attention from both campaigns.
North Carolina – Lenior County
Over 21% of the population in the Tar Heel State is African-American. In 2008, they came out in force for Obama, helping him carry traditional Republican strongholds like North Carolina on his way to the presidency. However, North Carolina went to Obama by a mere 0.3%, or 14,000 votes. Lenior County did not go for Obama in 2008. He lost the county by 23 votes. That being said, this is the county to watch this November. If Lenior County is close, it will spell danger for the Romney campaign.
Ohio – Sandusky County
The Buckeye State has been important in each and every presidential election since it became a state in 1803. In 2008, there was a major shift to the left, all concentrated in northwestern Ohio around Toledo, while the rest of the state stayed mostly moderate. Sandusky County was 1 of 6 counties to go for Bush in ’04, then switch to Obama in ’08. Plus, Sandusky County gets enough influence from Toledo and from rural northern Ohio to make it an ideal swing county within the ultimate swing state.
Virginia – King and Queen County
Can you believe that two counties in the Commonwealth voted for Kerry in ’04 and McCain in ’08? Me neither. But, that tells you how important of an issue coal is in the Cumberland Plateau. However, we will go to the eastern part of the Commonwealth for the bellwether county. King and Queen County, despite its small population of under 7,000, was only off the statewide results by 1% in 2008 and 0.5% in 2004. Though, the city of Winchester was even closer to the statewide results and should be used instead.
Wisconsin – Price County
You have to believe that the swing state status of Wisconsin was one of the reasons that Governor Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate. After the announcement in August, the Romney/Ryan gained a 4-point bounce in the Badger State. The Ryan factor makes it even more difficult to pick a bellwether county. Historically, Price County in the Highlands is the bellwether county in Wisconsin. However, if Ryan’s district in southeastern Wisconsin swings heavily for Romney, Price County could go slightly to the left and Obama could still lose the state.
Millions upon millions of Americans will tune in on the night of November 6 to see who wins what state. Watching the votes come in can be misleading. An example would be if the votes in rural Pennsylvania start coming in before the votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, and State College, it could look like the Keystone State could possibly break for Governor Romney. It's unwise to think that with 10% of the districts reporting from rural parts of the state can be an accurate sample of the state as a whole. The same could happen for President Obama in Missouri if votes from St. Louis and Kansas City are reported before the southern part of the Show Me State.
The solution: Look at bellwether counties in these 9 swing states when the polls close. They will give you a much better idea of how the state will go since they are a better indicator historically. Here are some of the important bellweather counties from these 9 swing states.
Colorado - Jefferson County
In 2008, Obama won the Rocky Mountain State by almost 9 points while Bush took Colorado by 4.7% in 2004. Jefferson County, just west of Denver, showed very similar numbers to the state as a whole in both elections. In 2008, Obama won the county by 9% and Bush won by 5.2% in 2004. Another county to look at is Ouray County in the southwest part of the state. Its numbers are in-line with the state as a whole, but its small population of 3,700 may cause concern.
Florida - Flagler County
Florida may be the toughest state to do this analysis for. In 2004, Oscoela County was a very good sample for the rest of the state. But in 2008, it gave 59% of its votes to Obama, who only won 52% throughout the rest of the Sunshine State. Flagler County isn't perfect, but it was one of 3 counties to go from red to blue between the '04 and '08 elections. In a state with constantly shifting populations, the area north of Daytona Beach is the best place to look for an idea of how the rest of the state will go.
Iowa - Marshall County
When Iowa switched from red to blue between 04 and 08, it took a ton of counties with it. So, you could theoritically throw a dart at map of Iowa and find a bellwether county. However, Marshall County is the most reliable. In the best two elections, it has never been off by more than 0.2% for any of the major candidates. Plus, with 20,000 voters, it makes it more reliable than Cedar County which is about half its size.
Nevada - Washoe County
This was pretty easy. Only one county changed colors between 2004 and 2008. While Washoe County includes the urban center of Reno, it also stretches all the way to the Oregon border, covering plenty of rural area. This makes Washoe County, the ideal bellwether county in the Silver State.
New Hampshire - Carroll County
Honestly, none of New Hampshire's 10 counties are good for guessing how the state will vote as a whole. However, of the 9 swings state, only New Hampshire and Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004. It's safe to assume that the Granite State is Obama's to lose. If Carroll County is close or in Romney's favor on election night, then it will require more attention from both campaigns.
North Carolina – Lenior County
Over 21% of the population in the Tar Heel State is African-American. In 2008, they came out in force for Obama, helping him carry traditional Republican strongholds like North Carolina on his way to the presidency. However, North Carolina went to Obama by a mere 0.3%, or 14,000 votes. Lenior County did not go for Obama in 2008. He lost the county by 23 votes. That being said, this is the county to watch this November. If Lenior County is close, it will spell danger for the Romney campaign.
Ohio – Sandusky County
The Buckeye State has been important in each and every presidential election since it became a state in 1803. In 2008, there was a major shift to the left, all concentrated in northwestern Ohio around Toledo, while the rest of the state stayed mostly moderate. Sandusky County was 1 of 6 counties to go for Bush in ’04, then switch to Obama in ’08. Plus, Sandusky County gets enough influence from Toledo and from rural northern Ohio to make it an ideal swing county within the ultimate swing state.
Virginia – King and Queen County
Can you believe that two counties in the Commonwealth voted for Kerry in ’04 and McCain in ’08? Me neither. But, that tells you how important of an issue coal is in the Cumberland Plateau. However, we will go to the eastern part of the Commonwealth for the bellwether county. King and Queen County, despite its small population of under 7,000, was only off the statewide results by 1% in 2008 and 0.5% in 2004. Though, the city of Winchester was even closer to the statewide results and should be used instead.
Wisconsin – Price County
You have to believe that the swing state status of Wisconsin was one of the reasons that Governor Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate. After the announcement in August, the Romney/Ryan gained a 4-point bounce in the Badger State. The Ryan factor makes it even more difficult to pick a bellwether county. Historically, Price County in the Highlands is the bellwether county in Wisconsin. However, if Ryan’s district in southeastern Wisconsin swings heavily for Romney, Price County could go slightly to the left and Obama could still lose the state.
I'll watch these counties closely. I'm also following InTrade, given my newfound curiosity of market pricing! :D
I love your tipping point thing as well. One thing I think is amazing is how no matter how you do it, by itself New Hampshire is useless. When you take away all of the states and start adding them according to the polls I start Obama's base as the incumbent with the Kerry states plus New Mexico, then I start adding them according to the polls. So first is Nevada, I believe that of all the swing states carried by Obama in '08 he has the least chance of losing that one. The conflict for me is that the next one would seem to be Ohio which is typically more republican than it has been polling. So when you add those two Obama get 271. New Hampshire would most likely be next though it has been trending more Romney the past few weeks. Thing is no matter how you look at it, it is not helpful by itself.