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Professor Summer's NFL Week 4 Fairly Confident Guesses
9 years ago
Good morning sports fans! Today the big spandex clad men are back to concuss one another and shorten their life expectancies for your viewing enjoyment and my profit. Your favorite glasses and labcoat (and nothing else http://www.furaffinity.net/view/21125763/ new pic for 2016!
) wearing skunkette has studied the spreads, and is here to give you the tip.
Here we are in week 4, and certain patterns have begun to emerge. Primary among those patterns is that I am wrong with alarming frequency. I've been picking off little mini-wins on Monday nights (3-0 on the season there) and with college football, but since I don't publish those, they don't count! Today I'm going to apply my college strategy to the pros. I don't follow college football, let alone obscure games like yesterday's Akron Vs. Kent St matchup (that I won on). Instead I base my picks on the first inkling I have and run with it. In other words, el-oh-el looks good let's do it.
Game #1 Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+1)
pick: Jets +1
~Teams do not travel well from west to east. The same effect is on teams traveling from east to west, but playing a game 3 hours later isn't as upseting to routine as playing one 3 hours early. Apply that to your life. Would you rather do everything 3 hours later, or get up three hours earlier than you normally do and run your day from there? Anyway, the Seahawks are on my list of teams with good records that I don't believe in. I also think the Jets are going to be a pain in the ass, and if they're going to the playoffs this year, this is a game they win. Sooo, Jet's plus the tiebreaking bonus point.
RESULT NY Jets 17 (+1=18) Seahawks 24
LOSS
Game #2 Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
pick: Raiders +3.5
~Okay, all that stuff I said about teams traveling from west to east poorly? Fuck all that. The Raiders have an explosive offense, and while they're susceptible to the long pass, the Ravens do not throw deep often. The Ravens are also at the top of the previously mentioned list of teams with good records that are suspicious. Their 3-0 record involves slim wins over bad teams. Taking the Raiders here, who need this game to put themselves in the post-season hunt.
RESULT Raiders 28 (+3=31) Ravens 27
WIN
Game #3 Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
pick: Falcons +3
~Atlanta is at the top of my list of teams that might actually be better than people realize. Their offense is clicking, last Monday they scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions (cah-ching, falcons & over 57 points, tyvm) then held on to beat the Saints by pacing them score for score after that. Carolina is struggling, it's the same problems they had last year, only now coming home to roost. They only have one good receiver, the others being very prone to drops. Cam needs to get back to the hero mode that carried them through last year quickly, or the Panthers might not even make the playoffs. I like Atlanta to win this one straight-up, with three insurance points as a bonus.
RESULT Falcons 48 (+3=51) Panthers 33
WIN
State of Summer's Buffalo Bills
Well they won unexpectedly last week, that was good. That gives fans like myself a glimmer of hope. A win today against the New England Fuckbois puts them at 2-2- after the first 4 games, which is where I had hoped they'd be to keep playoff hopes alive. I've been a fan of this team for a long time, though. Usually these glimmers of hope exist only to make the disappointment of another loss that much more bitter. Vegas seems to know this. They've set the Bills as 7 point underdogs, even while as of this Sunday morning it's unknown which of NE's backup QB's will be playing. It doesn't matter, the experts say. The Bills will puke in their laps and blow their opportunity to get back in the thick of things. Still though, come on guys, let's get this one, eh?
RESULT Buffalo Bills get road shut out, win 16-0 Woo!
BONUS - WTF LINE - FIX IS ON OF THE WEEK.
~Last week, Buffalo vs. Arizona had a mind blowing spread of only 4 points. Arizona was good. Buffalo bad. Buffalo only being given 4 points seemed insane-o. I made a note of that, because usually when lines seem that exploitable, it's a trap. Sure enough, Buffalo wins big, and Vegas pockets the money of all those suckers.
This week's WTF line is Tampa Bay +3 against defending super bowl champion Denver. Denver has looked unbeatable. Tampa has looked shaky as fuck. This is my nomination for sucker line of the week, look for Tampa to get the upset.
RESULT LOL, okay yeah looks like things are legit after all. Broncos win easily.
Week 4 results - 2-1
Season Results 5-6-1
) wearing skunkette has studied the spreads, and is here to give you the tip.
Here we are in week 4, and certain patterns have begun to emerge. Primary among those patterns is that I am wrong with alarming frequency. I've been picking off little mini-wins on Monday nights (3-0 on the season there) and with college football, but since I don't publish those, they don't count! Today I'm going to apply my college strategy to the pros. I don't follow college football, let alone obscure games like yesterday's Akron Vs. Kent St matchup (that I won on). Instead I base my picks on the first inkling I have and run with it. In other words, el-oh-el looks good let's do it.
Game #1 Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+1)
pick: Jets +1
~Teams do not travel well from west to east. The same effect is on teams traveling from east to west, but playing a game 3 hours later isn't as upseting to routine as playing one 3 hours early. Apply that to your life. Would you rather do everything 3 hours later, or get up three hours earlier than you normally do and run your day from there? Anyway, the Seahawks are on my list of teams with good records that I don't believe in. I also think the Jets are going to be a pain in the ass, and if they're going to the playoffs this year, this is a game they win. Sooo, Jet's plus the tiebreaking bonus point.
RESULT NY Jets 17 (+1=18) Seahawks 24
LOSS
Game #2 Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
pick: Raiders +3.5
~Okay, all that stuff I said about teams traveling from west to east poorly? Fuck all that. The Raiders have an explosive offense, and while they're susceptible to the long pass, the Ravens do not throw deep often. The Ravens are also at the top of the previously mentioned list of teams with good records that are suspicious. Their 3-0 record involves slim wins over bad teams. Taking the Raiders here, who need this game to put themselves in the post-season hunt.
RESULT Raiders 28 (+3=31) Ravens 27
WIN
Game #3 Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
pick: Falcons +3
~Atlanta is at the top of my list of teams that might actually be better than people realize. Their offense is clicking, last Monday they scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions (cah-ching, falcons & over 57 points, tyvm) then held on to beat the Saints by pacing them score for score after that. Carolina is struggling, it's the same problems they had last year, only now coming home to roost. They only have one good receiver, the others being very prone to drops. Cam needs to get back to the hero mode that carried them through last year quickly, or the Panthers might not even make the playoffs. I like Atlanta to win this one straight-up, with three insurance points as a bonus.
RESULT Falcons 48 (+3=51) Panthers 33
WIN
State of Summer's Buffalo Bills
Well they won unexpectedly last week, that was good. That gives fans like myself a glimmer of hope. A win today against the New England Fuckbois puts them at 2-2- after the first 4 games, which is where I had hoped they'd be to keep playoff hopes alive. I've been a fan of this team for a long time, though. Usually these glimmers of hope exist only to make the disappointment of another loss that much more bitter. Vegas seems to know this. They've set the Bills as 7 point underdogs, even while as of this Sunday morning it's unknown which of NE's backup QB's will be playing. It doesn't matter, the experts say. The Bills will puke in their laps and blow their opportunity to get back in the thick of things. Still though, come on guys, let's get this one, eh?
RESULT Buffalo Bills get road shut out, win 16-0 Woo!
BONUS - WTF LINE - FIX IS ON OF THE WEEK.
~Last week, Buffalo vs. Arizona had a mind blowing spread of only 4 points. Arizona was good. Buffalo bad. Buffalo only being given 4 points seemed insane-o. I made a note of that, because usually when lines seem that exploitable, it's a trap. Sure enough, Buffalo wins big, and Vegas pockets the money of all those suckers.
This week's WTF line is Tampa Bay +3 against defending super bowl champion Denver. Denver has looked unbeatable. Tampa has looked shaky as fuck. This is my nomination for sucker line of the week, look for Tampa to get the upset.
RESULT LOL, okay yeah looks like things are legit after all. Broncos win easily.
Week 4 results - 2-1
Season Results 5-6-1
Hopefully they set the groundwork to defeating those dreaded Patriots.