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Thoughts on a Trump Presidency (1/3)
9 years ago
My first thought upon learning who will be our next President was that the stupidity of the American electorate apparently is impossible to underestimate. On second thought, however, I decided that Americans simply didn't learn from the Brexit. I'm pretty sure that a lot of people weren't so much voting for Trump as they were voting against Hillary, or against professional politicians in general. Protest votes are okay, but they only work if they come close to winning. They're supposed to show that you want this person out of office, and you're willing to put almost anyone in there in their place. Even someone who isn't really qualified. If they actually win... well, they're as legally binding as any other vote, and you just elected that unqualified boob.
I don't know that's true, but it makes me feel better to think so.
That said... it's been over a week, now, and I've had time to give the matter still further attention. I'm dividing my thoughts into three posts. In this one, I'm going to go down what I think the consequences are going to be. This particular post isn't meant to be what we can expect from Trump as president; this is stuff that I think will come to pass simply because he won the election.
1. Hillary Clinton's presidential asperations are done. And possibly her chances at any lower office, as well. She lost to someone who is not a politician; who is a blatant bigot, hypocrite, and fearmonger; who just plain doesn't play by the rules of politics or, really, polite society. If she lost against him, her chances of ever winning are nil.
2. Don't expect that tax loophole to be closed. If Hillary had won, then whatever tax law he used to avoid paying taxes for the last however-long-it's-been would probably have been closed. It might even have been made so he'd have to pay back taxes on it. As it is, though, his election shows that people didn't care enough to take him to task over it. And with Trump himself in the White House and his party in control of Congress, any legislation to close that hole isn't going to go anywhere.
3. Expect American politics to get much nastier. After all, it's been shown that it works. People apparently will forgive some things now that in the past would absolutely kill a campaign. It's possible that this is a one-time thing -- that protest vote again -- but that won't be assured until people reject the next candidate who has an ugly past and runs an ugly campaign. So for the next few elections -- at least the next few, mind you -- expect some very unconventional candidates to run with some very unconventional campaigns. And if they win, too... oh dear.
4. There will be a resurgence of the Right Wing. Being a major businessman, and being elected on a campaign based on repealing Obamacare and deporting and nonadmittance of a select group of people, right-wing politicians are going to feel empowered. And they probably should.
5. Congress is largely going to rubber-stamp Trump's policies. This is the only one on this list I'd label as probable, not all-but-certain. A lot of Republicans were against Trump as he ran, thanks to what he was saying on the campaign trail, but now that he's won a lot of them are going to decide that was a mistake. They're going to do what they can to show they can be trusted, that they're good Party members, and they'll do that by approving of much of what he does. And with Republicans are in charge of both houses of Congress, that means a lot of what Trump says is going to go through unchallenged.
The reason this is not as certain is that some of what Trump has proposed is really, really out there, as far as American policy is concerned. It's possible some of it might be outrageous enough to make even his fellow party members realize it's a bad idea. But there's already people who derided Trump being proposed for his cabinet, and presumably they knew about it beforehand and didn't turn it down. Other Republicans who were against him before the election are quoted as saying they "trust his judgment". So I'm far from certain Trump will face much opposition from Congress to his proposals.
6. It's going to be an interesting four years. Not necessarily a good four years. But certainly interesting.
My next post will, hopefully, be my thoughts on what Trump may or may not do as President.
I don't know that's true, but it makes me feel better to think so.
That said... it's been over a week, now, and I've had time to give the matter still further attention. I'm dividing my thoughts into three posts. In this one, I'm going to go down what I think the consequences are going to be. This particular post isn't meant to be what we can expect from Trump as president; this is stuff that I think will come to pass simply because he won the election.
1. Hillary Clinton's presidential asperations are done. And possibly her chances at any lower office, as well. She lost to someone who is not a politician; who is a blatant bigot, hypocrite, and fearmonger; who just plain doesn't play by the rules of politics or, really, polite society. If she lost against him, her chances of ever winning are nil.
2. Don't expect that tax loophole to be closed. If Hillary had won, then whatever tax law he used to avoid paying taxes for the last however-long-it's-been would probably have been closed. It might even have been made so he'd have to pay back taxes on it. As it is, though, his election shows that people didn't care enough to take him to task over it. And with Trump himself in the White House and his party in control of Congress, any legislation to close that hole isn't going to go anywhere.
3. Expect American politics to get much nastier. After all, it's been shown that it works. People apparently will forgive some things now that in the past would absolutely kill a campaign. It's possible that this is a one-time thing -- that protest vote again -- but that won't be assured until people reject the next candidate who has an ugly past and runs an ugly campaign. So for the next few elections -- at least the next few, mind you -- expect some very unconventional candidates to run with some very unconventional campaigns. And if they win, too... oh dear.
4. There will be a resurgence of the Right Wing. Being a major businessman, and being elected on a campaign based on repealing Obamacare and deporting and nonadmittance of a select group of people, right-wing politicians are going to feel empowered. And they probably should.
5. Congress is largely going to rubber-stamp Trump's policies. This is the only one on this list I'd label as probable, not all-but-certain. A lot of Republicans were against Trump as he ran, thanks to what he was saying on the campaign trail, but now that he's won a lot of them are going to decide that was a mistake. They're going to do what they can to show they can be trusted, that they're good Party members, and they'll do that by approving of much of what he does. And with Republicans are in charge of both houses of Congress, that means a lot of what Trump says is going to go through unchallenged.
The reason this is not as certain is that some of what Trump has proposed is really, really out there, as far as American policy is concerned. It's possible some of it might be outrageous enough to make even his fellow party members realize it's a bad idea. But there's already people who derided Trump being proposed for his cabinet, and presumably they knew about it beforehand and didn't turn it down. Other Republicans who were against him before the election are quoted as saying they "trust his judgment". So I'm far from certain Trump will face much opposition from Congress to his proposals.
6. It's going to be an interesting four years. Not necessarily a good four years. But certainly interesting.
My next post will, hopefully, be my thoughts on what Trump may or may not do as President.
