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The Electoral System and Third Parties
5 years ago
General
Disclaimer: Much like my other journal, thoughtful debate and discussion is encouraged. Comments intended to demean, insult, threaten, and inflame will not be tolerated and will be dealt with in the appropriate fashion depending on the severity of the comments.
With the posting of this Journal, we are now less than a week away from determining if we'll finally have a path of reprieve to mend the divisions in this country...or suffer another 4 years of lies, corruption, division, hate, and deceit.
The opening line should be a pretty clear sign where I stand - I utterly despise Donald Trump and the Republican (GOP) Party, both of whom engaging in blatantly open and corrupt practices to subvert our right to vote and then some, being "Higher Than Thou" Hypocrites about the whole thing, and at such levels that Nixon wished he could've gotten away with...but I digress. My personal opinion has no merit on established facts...and the facts are that our current election system is broken and open to exploits similar to what we're seeing right now, and what can be done to fix it.
The first and foremost thing about the US Election System is that it doesn't go by a direct Popular Vote (PV), but instead, uses something called The Electoral College (EC), where Electoral Votes (EVs) are given to the one who wins the majority of votes in that state, regardless if they win by a landslide or half-plus-one (51%). However, almost all the states use a complicated, messy system comprised of 2 key parts. First is that they use First Past the Post, where whoever wins the majority of the PV wins in that contest; however, not all states don't do run-off elections if no one gets over 50% of the vote and will give victory to whoever wins the plurality (highest count under 50%). Second is that most states use a Winner Take All system where in any of the aforementioned scenarios, a candidate wins ALL of the EVs from that state. Because of that, it is open to the very unlikely but EXTREMELY dangerous possibility of a candidate winning 270 EVs with not even 33% of the PV. As such, the EC tends to give more power to the lesser populated rural states, who more often than not tend to vote Republican, resulting in 4 elections since 1876 resulting in a Republican winning the Presidency with a minority vote. Even if a candidate wins a clear majority of the PV and EC, there's still the chance the result could be flipped on its head if enough Faithless Electors decide "Yeah, this guy clearly won, but we're voting for the other guy instead". About a month after Election Day, 538 Electors are chosen by the States to then cast their votes for the next President of the United States, where they could very easily flip their vote, though I must point out that there has never been a time where enough Faithless Electors have flip-flopped to change the outcome of the election, but the concern has been raised for this election given the current actions being taken by the GOP.
So you might be asking, "How do third party candidates fit into this?"...well, recall FPtP. Most states run elections (not just the Presidential Election) that use a FPtP system that don't condition a runoff if there's no clear winner of the majority of the PV, giving the election to the one who wins the plurality of the vote; Wisconsin where I live is one such state, as our current governor won by edging out enough of the vote to win the plurality of votes but not over 50%. FPtP systems are notorious in that they have what's called "The Spoiler Effect", where enough votes are peeled off from one of the major candidates that hurt them enough that the other major candidate wins; more often than not, the candidate that is the preferred winner by the majority is the one that loses because of the Spoiler Effect. Some say that's one of the main reasons Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 Election. Until our system is improved--which I'll get to in a moment--Third Party candidates are something we cannot consider...and with the 2020 election being considered by many as the one that will decide the fate of democracy in the United States, wasting a vote on a Third Party Candidate or a Write-In is a massive mistake. Hell, if you can't even get high enough in the polls to be in a debate to argue your points, your running for high office is a waste of time and resources; just pull out and compromise on one of the candidates that'll help lay the groundwork...
So then...what do we do? There are many ways to fix our system for the better. YouTuber CGP Grey has incredible videos on his channel that lay factually better options on the table, while making it much more entertaining than my grim, straight-to-the-point journal here. Solutions he propose including eliminating the EC, changing to a rank-based voting system, and doing a more fair approach to drawing out voting districts; some of which, if implemented correctly AND successfully, can give Third Party Candidates a very real shot for high office, to which I say when that happens, "Go ahead and vote how you please". Go check it out; you won't be disappointed - http://www.youtube.com/user/CGPGrey
Of course, to even have a remote chance of enacting such change, you need to first take advantage of the tools you have available to you to get people into office that will have a higher likelihood of enacting said changes. In this particular election cycle, the choice is clear - it's time to swallow our pride and reservations and vote Joe Biden and Democrats into office, since Trump and the GOP have clearly shown they don't care about the rules, norms, or your lives as long as they get their way. After all, if you're hoping for relief during this nightmare of a pandemic, you'll have to wait until AFTER the election since Mitch McConnell has adjourned the Senate until then.
Your best bet is to go directly to your polling place and vote, even if it means bringing your mail-in or absentee vote directly to the clerk to be counted. Between the GOP's lawsuits, the crippling of the USPS, and people setting fires to ballot boxes around the country, this is one election we cannot leave to chance with our vote...
With the posting of this Journal, we are now less than a week away from determining if we'll finally have a path of reprieve to mend the divisions in this country...or suffer another 4 years of lies, corruption, division, hate, and deceit.
The opening line should be a pretty clear sign where I stand - I utterly despise Donald Trump and the Republican (GOP) Party, both of whom engaging in blatantly open and corrupt practices to subvert our right to vote and then some, being "Higher Than Thou" Hypocrites about the whole thing, and at such levels that Nixon wished he could've gotten away with...but I digress. My personal opinion has no merit on established facts...and the facts are that our current election system is broken and open to exploits similar to what we're seeing right now, and what can be done to fix it.
The first and foremost thing about the US Election System is that it doesn't go by a direct Popular Vote (PV), but instead, uses something called The Electoral College (EC), where Electoral Votes (EVs) are given to the one who wins the majority of votes in that state, regardless if they win by a landslide or half-plus-one (51%). However, almost all the states use a complicated, messy system comprised of 2 key parts. First is that they use First Past the Post, where whoever wins the majority of the PV wins in that contest; however, not all states don't do run-off elections if no one gets over 50% of the vote and will give victory to whoever wins the plurality (highest count under 50%). Second is that most states use a Winner Take All system where in any of the aforementioned scenarios, a candidate wins ALL of the EVs from that state. Because of that, it is open to the very unlikely but EXTREMELY dangerous possibility of a candidate winning 270 EVs with not even 33% of the PV. As such, the EC tends to give more power to the lesser populated rural states, who more often than not tend to vote Republican, resulting in 4 elections since 1876 resulting in a Republican winning the Presidency with a minority vote. Even if a candidate wins a clear majority of the PV and EC, there's still the chance the result could be flipped on its head if enough Faithless Electors decide "Yeah, this guy clearly won, but we're voting for the other guy instead". About a month after Election Day, 538 Electors are chosen by the States to then cast their votes for the next President of the United States, where they could very easily flip their vote, though I must point out that there has never been a time where enough Faithless Electors have flip-flopped to change the outcome of the election, but the concern has been raised for this election given the current actions being taken by the GOP.
So you might be asking, "How do third party candidates fit into this?"...well, recall FPtP. Most states run elections (not just the Presidential Election) that use a FPtP system that don't condition a runoff if there's no clear winner of the majority of the PV, giving the election to the one who wins the plurality of the vote; Wisconsin where I live is one such state, as our current governor won by edging out enough of the vote to win the plurality of votes but not over 50%. FPtP systems are notorious in that they have what's called "The Spoiler Effect", where enough votes are peeled off from one of the major candidates that hurt them enough that the other major candidate wins; more often than not, the candidate that is the preferred winner by the majority is the one that loses because of the Spoiler Effect. Some say that's one of the main reasons Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 Election. Until our system is improved--which I'll get to in a moment--Third Party candidates are something we cannot consider...and with the 2020 election being considered by many as the one that will decide the fate of democracy in the United States, wasting a vote on a Third Party Candidate or a Write-In is a massive mistake. Hell, if you can't even get high enough in the polls to be in a debate to argue your points, your running for high office is a waste of time and resources; just pull out and compromise on one of the candidates that'll help lay the groundwork...
So then...what do we do? There are many ways to fix our system for the better. YouTuber CGP Grey has incredible videos on his channel that lay factually better options on the table, while making it much more entertaining than my grim, straight-to-the-point journal here. Solutions he propose including eliminating the EC, changing to a rank-based voting system, and doing a more fair approach to drawing out voting districts; some of which, if implemented correctly AND successfully, can give Third Party Candidates a very real shot for high office, to which I say when that happens, "Go ahead and vote how you please". Go check it out; you won't be disappointed - http://www.youtube.com/user/CGPGrey
Of course, to even have a remote chance of enacting such change, you need to first take advantage of the tools you have available to you to get people into office that will have a higher likelihood of enacting said changes. In this particular election cycle, the choice is clear - it's time to swallow our pride and reservations and vote Joe Biden and Democrats into office, since Trump and the GOP have clearly shown they don't care about the rules, norms, or your lives as long as they get their way. After all, if you're hoping for relief during this nightmare of a pandemic, you'll have to wait until AFTER the election since Mitch McConnell has adjourned the Senate until then.
Your best bet is to go directly to your polling place and vote, even if it means bringing your mail-in or absentee vote directly to the clerk to be counted. Between the GOP's lawsuits, the crippling of the USPS, and people setting fires to ballot boxes around the country, this is one election we cannot leave to chance with our vote...
It's not the democrats who im worried about ((keep in mind that democrat and republican ideologies are just ideologies after all and don't really go away)) but it's mostly the Republican party that is being destroyed by Trump. I think most people who vote for Trump just want things to be back to the way it was, hence conservative stances on issues in this country. If Trump REALLY wanted my vote he would stop ignoring the current problems in this country AKA covid 19 and the blatant rise in racist events happening currently.
Until he actually does something(which he probably wont imo) i would vote democratic and if people knew how to stop and think for a moment they would do so as well.
Someone said, "You can hate Trump, but you can't hate his supporters"...which is a good stance to have, considering what you said - that people for some reason think bringing back the 1950s is a good thing, and somehow Trump is the best man for that.
...except that flies out the window when the GOP are actively trying to steal my one thing of ultimate value - my constitutional right to vote - by making it extremely hard to carry out that vote. When they try to do that to keep power to implement flagrantly unconstitutional policies that are opposed by over 60% of registered eligible voters and do nothing to fix clearly broken issues in this country, then I DO hate them. Yes, Democrats have their fair share of issues that give me pause, but the GOP has been the big problem the past couple of decades; even lifelong political analysts who have leveled justly fair criticism to both sides finally threw their arms up and said, "Let's face it; Republicans are the problem."
I'm trying not to hate the Trump voter this time around just like back in 2016, but after everything he's said and done and is doing right now, anyone that votes for Trump and the GOP is showing their true character...one that is willfully turning a blind eye to, or openly supports/practices (including, but not limited to):
-Racism
-Sexism
-Xenophobia
-Political/Religious Extremism
-Anti-LGBTQ+
-Anti-Abortion*
-Authoritarianism in All its Glory (Subversion of Rights, Jailing/Executing Political Opponents and Minorities, etc.)
-Propaganda Fueled by Hatred and Lies
-Utter Hypocrisy
...all that for what? To selfishly secure a few rights and privileges while ruining the lives of others and stomping on the morals that were taught to my generation and generations to follow? Hell is going to have a huge influx of newcomers with the rank hypocrisy going on in our government and the amount of people that say it's fine, even if its clearly wrong...with COVID-19 going crazy, they better hope it's not the Rapture.
*I list this because I view the "Pro-Life" stance as a total f***ing joke, shown clearly as such in light of terrible school shootings like at Sandy Hook in 2012, where they cared more about people having access to weapons (that quite frankly shouldn't be in the hands of average citizens) over the safety of children. They "care" about the life of the unborn as being "sacred", but once its out of the womb, all bets are off; true "pro-life" people would see to it that a child is supported to adulthood and the mother has the means to support them up to that point.