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Current state of the election (esp. for my non-US friends...
5 years ago
Alioth FoxPlease read my terms of service before approaching me for a commission!Commission status, prices, and offerings can be found here. So I have had several non-US people ask me about where the election currently stands. If the election has been officially called in Biden's favor, why is Trump still fighting? What happens if Trump refuses to conceded? What kind of legal challenges can Trump mount to prevent Biden from taking office? Let me give as clear of an answer as I can to some of the questions I've been getting. (For those of you who aren't aware, I teach history and political science, which is one reason I'm getting a lot of these questions.)
Has Biden officially won the election?
No, Biden has not yet "officially" won the election. All the major media networks have announced Biden as the projected winner, but there's nothing "official" or legally binding about that. All that means is that all of the media networks have declared that based on all available data, Biden is the presumed winner. It's extremely rare for media networks to call an election and then be wrong (it's not unprecedented, mind; most of you have probably seen the famous photo of President Truman holding up the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline). That said, based on all of the data available, Biden is the winner of this election by a fairly comfortable margin even in the most closely-contested states. The election results become official as soon as they are certified, for all practical purposes. I'll get to that in a minute.
Why is there so much emphasis on the individual states?
In the United States, we do not elect our president simply by popular vote. We have what is known as the Electoral College (a term a few of you have probably seen tossed around but may not understand). Each state has a certain number of people known as electors. The number of electors in a state depends on the state's population (California, the most populous state, has 55 electors, while Wyoming, the least populous state, only has 3). On Election Day, voters cast their ballot for which presidential candidate they want their state to vote for, and (with a few exceptions), the winner of that state's popular vote gets all of that state's electoral votes. This is why "battleground states" like Georgia are so important. Georgia (for instance) has 16 electors. If Biden wins Georgia's popular vote, he gets all 16 of those electors, no matter how slim his margin of victory is; it's not split up as "9 Georgia electors for Biden, 7 for Trump." That's not how it works. In all states (except Maine and Nebraska), the electoral contest is a "winner takes all" affair. This is why, in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election even though ~3 million more people voted for her than they did for Trump.
On what grounds can Trump legally contest the election results?
Since the news of Biden's victory, Trump has launched a fusillade of legal challenges to the election results. Their goal seems to be to delay the certification of the results, though it's unclear to me what they hope to accomplish by doing so other than possibly make things rocky for the transition team so that Biden comes in with more of a political challenge to overcome, which puts Trump's party (potentially) on more solid footing in 2024. Realistically, Trump's current strategy seems more akin to a tenant trashing his apartment after receiving an eviction notice. Republicans are basically content to publicly "let things play out" while privately congratulating Biden. This is mainly because Trump (and his brand) will continue to be a force in US politics for years to come, and they fear his reprisal. Their hope is that by "letting the baby have his tantrum," so to speak, Trump will eventually realize that he has no path to victory and will back down.
As for the specific legal challenges, pretty much all of the leading legal experts (both conservative and liberal) have agreed that they are unlikely to accomplish anything for Trump. His main challenge at the moment is in Pennsylvania. The basis of his argument is that the process by which Pennsylvania receives and counts votes through mail-in ballots is not transparent enough and/or creates an opportunity for fraudulent voting. So basically, his goal is to have all of the mail-in ballots thrown out. Pretty much every legal expert agrees that this case is dead on arrival, for a number of reasons. First, the voting process Pennsylvania used was already well-known by both candidates in the weeks leading up to the election - Trump had plenty of time to challenge that process before the election and didn't, and the court is not going to go in after the fact and overturn thousands of ballots that were legally cast in good faith. Trump's margin of defeat in Pennsylvania is well outside of recount margins (he is behind by about 50 thousand votes), so overturning counted votes is his only option in Pennsylvania (and several other states). Even the most conservative courts are exceptionally unlikely to do this. So it's important to emphasize that these legal challenges have virtually no chance - even by the bizarre "Trump makes weird things happen" standards - of succeeding.
What about the recounts in Georgia and Arizona?
The margins of Biden's victory in those two states were slim enough that they are able to recount the votes to ensure that all ballots were counted correctly. There are two things to keep in mind about these recounts: one, they are unlikely to change those states' results. Recounts rarely ever change a state's election results because for the most part, they're pretty darn good at counting them correctly the first time. It might change the results by a few hundred votes in each state, but Biden is ahead by several thousand votes in both states at last count. Secondly, based on the current electoral map, Biden does not need either of those states' electoral votes to win the election; he has won 279 (a candidate needs 270 to win the election) electoral votes even without Arizona and Georgia.
So is it possible for Trump to change the election results?
Realistically, no. For the election to be decided in Trump's favor, his legal challenges in Pennsylvania and Michigan would have to succeed (which, again, stands virtually no chance of happening), and the recount would have to end up in his favor in both Arizona and Georgia (which, again, is very unlikely). These moves by Trump are a "Hail Mary" - just throwing stuff at the walls to see what sticks.
But what about Al Gore?
To put it simply, this election, despite the talk of "recounts," is nothing at all like the 2000 election that saw Al Gore lose to George W. Bush due to a recount. Gore was looking at a recount over a few hundred votes in one state. Trump is looking at a recount over a few thousand votes in several states - none of which matter if he loses his legal challenges in the states that are outside of recount margins, which is virtually certain to be the case.
What happens if Trump doesn't concede the election?
Nothing. There's no legal requirement for Trump to concede defeat; it's just based on two centuries of custom and courtesy (even Al Gore conceded to Bush before his recounts in Florida; this frees up resources for the incoming president's transition team to ensure a smooth transfer of power). But the simple reality is that with or without Trump's concession, Joe Biden will become the 46th president at noon on January 20.
Hopefully this clears up any questions! Feel free to ask more below if you have any, and I'll answer them as well as I can. (If I haven't made it clear by now in previous journals, I'm just going to immediately hide comments that aren't being made in good faith, so don't waste your time.)
Has Biden officially won the election?
No, Biden has not yet "officially" won the election. All the major media networks have announced Biden as the projected winner, but there's nothing "official" or legally binding about that. All that means is that all of the media networks have declared that based on all available data, Biden is the presumed winner. It's extremely rare for media networks to call an election and then be wrong (it's not unprecedented, mind; most of you have probably seen the famous photo of President Truman holding up the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline). That said, based on all of the data available, Biden is the winner of this election by a fairly comfortable margin even in the most closely-contested states. The election results become official as soon as they are certified, for all practical purposes. I'll get to that in a minute.
Why is there so much emphasis on the individual states?
In the United States, we do not elect our president simply by popular vote. We have what is known as the Electoral College (a term a few of you have probably seen tossed around but may not understand). Each state has a certain number of people known as electors. The number of electors in a state depends on the state's population (California, the most populous state, has 55 electors, while Wyoming, the least populous state, only has 3). On Election Day, voters cast their ballot for which presidential candidate they want their state to vote for, and (with a few exceptions), the winner of that state's popular vote gets all of that state's electoral votes. This is why "battleground states" like Georgia are so important. Georgia (for instance) has 16 electors. If Biden wins Georgia's popular vote, he gets all 16 of those electors, no matter how slim his margin of victory is; it's not split up as "9 Georgia electors for Biden, 7 for Trump." That's not how it works. In all states (except Maine and Nebraska), the electoral contest is a "winner takes all" affair. This is why, in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election even though ~3 million more people voted for her than they did for Trump.
On what grounds can Trump legally contest the election results?
Since the news of Biden's victory, Trump has launched a fusillade of legal challenges to the election results. Their goal seems to be to delay the certification of the results, though it's unclear to me what they hope to accomplish by doing so other than possibly make things rocky for the transition team so that Biden comes in with more of a political challenge to overcome, which puts Trump's party (potentially) on more solid footing in 2024. Realistically, Trump's current strategy seems more akin to a tenant trashing his apartment after receiving an eviction notice. Republicans are basically content to publicly "let things play out" while privately congratulating Biden. This is mainly because Trump (and his brand) will continue to be a force in US politics for years to come, and they fear his reprisal. Their hope is that by "letting the baby have his tantrum," so to speak, Trump will eventually realize that he has no path to victory and will back down.
As for the specific legal challenges, pretty much all of the leading legal experts (both conservative and liberal) have agreed that they are unlikely to accomplish anything for Trump. His main challenge at the moment is in Pennsylvania. The basis of his argument is that the process by which Pennsylvania receives and counts votes through mail-in ballots is not transparent enough and/or creates an opportunity for fraudulent voting. So basically, his goal is to have all of the mail-in ballots thrown out. Pretty much every legal expert agrees that this case is dead on arrival, for a number of reasons. First, the voting process Pennsylvania used was already well-known by both candidates in the weeks leading up to the election - Trump had plenty of time to challenge that process before the election and didn't, and the court is not going to go in after the fact and overturn thousands of ballots that were legally cast in good faith. Trump's margin of defeat in Pennsylvania is well outside of recount margins (he is behind by about 50 thousand votes), so overturning counted votes is his only option in Pennsylvania (and several other states). Even the most conservative courts are exceptionally unlikely to do this. So it's important to emphasize that these legal challenges have virtually no chance - even by the bizarre "Trump makes weird things happen" standards - of succeeding.
What about the recounts in Georgia and Arizona?
The margins of Biden's victory in those two states were slim enough that they are able to recount the votes to ensure that all ballots were counted correctly. There are two things to keep in mind about these recounts: one, they are unlikely to change those states' results. Recounts rarely ever change a state's election results because for the most part, they're pretty darn good at counting them correctly the first time. It might change the results by a few hundred votes in each state, but Biden is ahead by several thousand votes in both states at last count. Secondly, based on the current electoral map, Biden does not need either of those states' electoral votes to win the election; he has won 279 (a candidate needs 270 to win the election) electoral votes even without Arizona and Georgia.
So is it possible for Trump to change the election results?
Realistically, no. For the election to be decided in Trump's favor, his legal challenges in Pennsylvania and Michigan would have to succeed (which, again, stands virtually no chance of happening), and the recount would have to end up in his favor in both Arizona and Georgia (which, again, is very unlikely). These moves by Trump are a "Hail Mary" - just throwing stuff at the walls to see what sticks.
But what about Al Gore?
To put it simply, this election, despite the talk of "recounts," is nothing at all like the 2000 election that saw Al Gore lose to George W. Bush due to a recount. Gore was looking at a recount over a few hundred votes in one state. Trump is looking at a recount over a few thousand votes in several states - none of which matter if he loses his legal challenges in the states that are outside of recount margins, which is virtually certain to be the case.
What happens if Trump doesn't concede the election?
Nothing. There's no legal requirement for Trump to concede defeat; it's just based on two centuries of custom and courtesy (even Al Gore conceded to Bush before his recounts in Florida; this frees up resources for the incoming president's transition team to ensure a smooth transfer of power). But the simple reality is that with or without Trump's concession, Joe Biden will become the 46th president at noon on January 20.
Hopefully this clears up any questions! Feel free to ask more below if you have any, and I'll answer them as well as I can. (If I haven't made it clear by now in previous journals, I'm just going to immediately hide comments that aren't being made in good faith, so don't waste your time.)
Just saying. :3
So I'm sure that also weighs in the balance.