So much to report!

I've been learning horse riding (finally) and have done five lessons so far. I'm in the process of learning the rising and sitting trot. My lesson horse is named Charlie, a Belgian/Standardbred cross, a mostly calm but occasionally stubborn gelding. He likes to try and pull the reins out of my hands lol
My co-worker won the lottery in late January and I just saw him for the first time since, this week. He had an Irish tan from being in Barbados.
And I'm dating again; I'm going out with a lovely young woman about my age. We've gone out five times and it's still rather casual, but it's a new record for me lol

The future - hitting up New York at the end of April! Got tickets booked for Wicked and Jersey Boys (Book of Mormon was sold out :( ). Was hoping to get tickets for David Letterman as well, but haven't heard anything back from them. I'm also hoping to find "New York's hottest club..." ;)

July - HOPEFULLY heading to Anthrocon once again; just waiting for clarity from  animalgirl79  elysium and  Twisterhusky .. Hotel room is booked in any case.

And Congratulations to Australia's, Zairianara who is going to be doing a term of school in Ottawa! Some weekend this fall, I'm hoping to meet up with her in Montreal for culture, museums and Montreal Canadiens hockey! :)

Just really needed a new journal and this seems to be a popular meme.

Ask me absolutely anything (though if it's too personal, I may answer privately)

The year long campaign is over and Obama is victorious!! What a great way to transition into the holiday season.

http://www.furaffinity.net/journal/4008624/

 dustythemare is holding an art raffle


As for my own art (of the holiday kind), I have no big ideas for this year.. Whatever I do will probably be by request only. Feel free to send me any requests or ideas!

These past four years, I know that I at least have grown wiser as a person. I’ve completed a professional degree, held the same job for over two years now and observed much human suffering in the course of that job, trying my best to respond with empathy and do what good I can. Above all, I am dedicated to evidence-based medicine and using facts and data to promote health. Yet it sometimes seems that the wider world does not share my love of facts and science and indeed many people are openly hostile to them. In discussing this US election, I shall focus mainly on environmental policy, since this is all that really matters in the end. Concern about economics and deficits and even jobs are all well and good, but I think we will find them to be nothing but smoke and mirrors once there is no food and our homes are under water. I will also take a view of the parties and candidates through the lens of realpolitik; that is, the politics of reality, not ideality. We must work for improvement within the framework of the way things are, not what we imagine they should be. If I had my way, a ticket featuring Bill Maher and Michael Moore would win the White House. But that is not going to happen.

I will start by mentioning how my own perceptions have shifted slightly over the past four years. In that time I read two of the most important books for any student of history and politics: A People’s History of the United States by Howard Zinn and Manufacturing Consent by Noam Chomsky. The former lays out a narrative of American history from 1492 until a few years ago. It does not tell the story from the point of view of politicians or generals, but rather explains was life was like for regular people. The answer: very bad for a long time, and still difficult for many even to this day. The other take home message of that text is the treacherous nature of the two-party political system. Through pretty much all of American history, there have been two parties; first the Democrats and the Whigs, then the Democrats and Republicans. There was often very little meaningful difference between them; having them both merely provided the illusion of choice. Whether by design or not, everything done by politicians had the effect of maintaining the status quo and the wide gap between rich and poor. Zinn also concluded that real change only occurs through people’s movements (strikes and massive protests) when people threaten outright revolt of either the violent or non-violent kind. Probably the most encouraging political development of the last four years was not brought about by any politician, but was the emergence of Occupy Wall Street, a true people’s movement as evidenced by the fact that the mainstream media ignored them until it was no longer possible to do so. Howard Zinn would be very proud, I think.

Does this ‘illusion of choice’ dynamic still apply to modern Democrats and Republicans? Yes and no. To answer this fully, I’d like to start by going back to the controversial 2000 election. I remember seeing Al Gore on David Letterman, talking about his plan for the environment. It really struck me how this was seemingly the only American with any power who would stand up to polluters and who understood climate science. He also talked to people as if they were reasonable adults, a decidedly rare trait among politicians. The contrast with his opponent could not have been starker. George W. Bush: this rube, this cracker, this “Cowboy from Toy Story” as Bill Maher would later describe him. Yet through a series of unfortunate events Bush became president, to the detriment of all. As a smart guy, it really vexed me that that contest could ever have been close, let alone go the way it did. That election remains as the greatest historical ‘What if,’ of my lifetime and it was what really politicized me as a person in my formative years. What would the world have been like if Gore had claimed the Presidency? It’s easy to throw out utopian scenarios, but the reality would have likely been more complicated. 9/11 may or may not have still happened (Gore was notably fastidious on security and would likely have paid more attention to the memo titled ‘Bin Laden determined to attack inside the US.’ Had the attacks still happened, he certainly wouldn’t have played Bin Laden’s game quite so readily as Bush did and there would have been no Iraq War). Often it is said, however, that you cannot change the system; the system changes you. Could Gore as President have maintained the moral clarity and dedication to reason and evidence-based policy that became the hallmark of his post-political career? As C.S. Lewis wrote, “No one is ever told what would have happened.”

But here we are, over a decade later… a decade of pointless wars, economic collapse and continued environmental degradation. After four years Obama has successfully ended one war and is in the process of ending the other. His progress on the other two areas has been more modest. But back to the original question: is there a significant difference between the two parties? Let’s look at the demographics of the parties. The Democrats are a coalition of large majorities of Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Gays and Secularists, along with Whites ranging from working class to cosmopolitan. The Republican coalition is far more monolithic: simply put, the pale Germanic hordes, ranging from poor to mega-rich. It is fundamentally more difficult, what the Democrats do; their party is far more diverse and as a result they need to serve the values of many different types of people. As a result, Democratic politicians range in views from liberal to moderately conservative. This is why, even when Obama had a super-majority in the senate, it was difficult to make sweeping reforms; he had senators from places like Montana who were not eager to vote with the center of the party. The GOP has no such range to worry about; their extremism on social issues is somewhat variable and may change over time, but they are almost universally dedicated to unreasonable far-right economics, which have resulted in the continued redistribution of wealth upward, through upper-class tax cuts and corporate welfare. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the middle-class is squeezed as well.

As a result, I blame America’s problems on a combination of extremist Republicans and the nature of the system itself. To hear them talk, the two parties (and especially their voters) have never been more different. And to a great extent, it isn’t even a matter of Left and Right, but one of Reality versus Insanity. Simply put, the GOP is now dominated by the views of its most irrational constituents. Racist conspiracy theories abound; everything President Obama attempts to do is resisted without regard to merit. This behavior is most obviously exemplified by the Tea Party, which may have started in earnest as a grassroots movement, but has long since become “Astroturf” a pseudo-people’s movement; a cadre of useful idiots, lobbying for the interests of the 1%. Unlike Occupy Wall Street, they were fawned over by the mainstream media almost since the beginning. With all the wealth and hate of the powers that be set against him, President Obama has found it difficult to get legislation passed. The US system, with it’s multiple branches and ‘checks and balances’ is very useful for stopping nefarious leaders from going too far, but it also slows the progress that can be made under decent ones to a crawl. I think Obama’s biggest mistake, especially early in his term, was continually bending over backwards trying to ‘reach across the aisle’ to people who hate him and will never support him on anything. He should instead “welcome their contempt,” (as Franklin Roosevelt put it) as a sign that he is doing his job. As a result of this stagnation, there has been a return to the ‘Plague on both your houses”’ political apathy that was felt before 9/11. Some people have sworn off the two parties in favor of equally toxic (albeit in a different way) so-called “Libertarians” (they are nothing of the sort). On a side note, I do think that it is a very interesting debate as to whether a Mitt Romney or a Ron Paul presidency would be a bigger disaster – one that I hope remains purely theoretical forever and ever.

Some criticisms of President Obama, from both detractors and supporters:
1. He has tried to use the death of Osama bin Laden for political gain… a little bit, yes, but a laughable accusation coming from the GOP. If it had been Bush in 2004 he would have dismembered the corpse and sent a chunk to every swing state.
2. His Affordable Care Act is a “government takeover of health care” – It is nothing of the sort; it involved continued use of private insurance and didn’t even include the much sought-after public option.
3. Foreign policy: He has been criticized (absurdly) by the Right for being weak… He has also been criticized by the Left for continuing violent actions similar to Republican administrations. This criticism is not without merit. He has conducted drone strikes against perceived threats and there are probably all kinds of bad things that we don’t even hear about. He is not Gandhi, but remember that if we are to think in terms of realpolitik, we know that the US will not elect a Gandhi anytime soon. There are only two possibilities as to who will be president and Obama is the best they will ever do for the foreseeable future. It is also morally imbecilic to equate the relatively surgical strikes and covert operations under Obama, with the Republicans who started a war without provocation: bombed and occupied a country and killed upwards of half a million people according to some estimates.

Now to the main crux of my discussion. The summer of 2012 may well be viewed historically as the beginning of the end for sustainable human civilization as we know it. Heat records were smashed all over North America and the world and Arctic ice cover reached its lowest level in recorded history. This year will conclude as the hottest year ever, something I have experienced an unnatural number of times in my lifetime. Here’s a typical CNN article on the heat wave. http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/20/us/us.....her/index.html Notice that while the article comments on the unusual nature of the weather, it makes no specific reference to the root cause: greenhouse gases produced mostly by human activity. This is an extremely obvious connection for anyone who doesn’t have their head in the sand (or up their own ass). Yet even as evidence builds and builds, talk about it the mainstream press seems to have decreased steadily over the past few years, “a conspiracy of silence” as Al Gore called it. There has been depressingly little talk of it on the campaign (it got a few sentences in Obama’s acceptance speech, but not a single specific mention in either of the first two debates). The media is often accused of having a ‘liberal bias’ (read Manufacturing Consent to understand what a Big Lie that is). It seems the real problem nowadays is the media’s lack of bias, or rather, lack of discernment. They utterly fail in their job of making judgments and explaining them. In the interest of ‘fairness’ they create all manner of false equivalencies in their narrative, giving equal time to scientists and every madman on the street corner. They also have a tendency to avoid creating discomfort by calling a spade a spade. Case in point, there have been at least three domestic terrorist attacks by conservative Caucasians in the United States in the last four years, but you’ll seldom hear them referred to as such. I could go on and on about the media, but this is getting long and I want to summarize.

There are occasional exceptions to the rule of an ineffective media, like this excellent article by Bill McKibben in the Rolling Stone this past summer. http://www.rollingstone.com/politic.....-math-20120719 He explained the situation very clearly: to avoid a disastrous and irreversible 2’C increase in global temperatures we must limit the amount of fossil fuels we burn to less than 20% of what is currently estimated to exist. In my estimation, it will take a World War II level of mobilization to accomplish this and we are fast running out of time. Has President Obama made progress on this front? He has made some, which is admirable, but predictably also inadequate. He has invested $90 Billion (mostly successfully) in renewable energy. He had mandated vast improvement fuel efficiency for new automobiles. He has set limits to carbon pollution that new power plants can create. He has set new standards for mercury emissions from coal-fired plants. All of this would have been very helpful 25 years ago; as it is, it may be too little too late. What does the future hold? You can bet that a Romney presidency would do little and less on the issue; his policy states as much (though he does admit that global warming is theoretically real, which is more than most Republicans will). Romney has also been shown to be a callous animal abuser, so it seems unlikely that any of this wiould be a priotiy for him. Can Obama turn things around in a second term? Impossible to say for sure, but he has shown a knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. He beat presumptive nominee Hilary Clinton in the Democratic primary. He passed health care reform when many thought he couldn’t. He resisted tremendous pressure to approve the doomsday Keystone XL pipeline, which will hopefully kill the project altogether. That decision gives me some confidence that he understands the reality of the situation and has a plan of some sort. So Obama represents our only hope, the hope against hope and without his reelection, all may be lost. I’m reminded of Lando Calrissian’s words about Han Solo’s mission on the Endor: “We’ve got to give him more time!”

George Orwell wrote that, “if there is hope it is with the proles.” In the US, I say that if there is hope it is with the Latinos. The electoral landscape has shifted in the last 8-12 years from fundamentally favoring Republicans to fundamentally favoring Democrats. This is mainly due to growing Hispanic populations, especially in the southwest. New Mexico seems solidly blue and even Arizona had Obama leading by 2 points in one recent poll. At the Democratic Convention, they were even talking about turning Texas purple and then blue over the next few election cycles. So unless the GOP drastically changes their attitude toward Hispanics, every given election will be harder for them in the future. Still, this election is incredibly important as the world, both economically and environmentally, simply cannot afford four years of GOP rule at this point.

I reread The Fellowship of the Ring this past summer, an incredibly elegant book, full of excellent quotes. One lesser known one struck a chord with me. After the apparent death of Gandalf, Aragorn says, “We must do without hope… At least we may yet be avenged.” One more reason to support or root for the President – just to spite his most fanatical, hysterical enemies! Namely, the ones with Confederate flags and more guns than teeth. I can’t imagine anything that would drive them more insane than another four years of Obama. Should I have more sympathy of these people? After all, they are manipulated by the 1% and the corporate media to vote against their own interests. “Only a pawn in their game,” if you will. We may all be pawns, but that doesn’t mean that certain pawns aren’t more greedy, ignorant and cruel than others. Through policy, I would treat them better than they would ever treat me; that is allowance enough.

So there are two possible endings. To use literary metaphors, there is the JRR Tolkien ending in which Obama prevails and with the power of hope and free will and maybe a little deus ex machina the world is maybe (a big maybe) saved. Or there’s the George R.R. Martin ending, in which Obama loses all and the plot goes off in another unknown, and likely tragic, direction. It is debatable which constitutes more interesting literature, but for real life, I’d like to stick with the former.

http://www.furaffinity.net/journal/3813680

Check out his art!

Also, been on FA over three years now!

First off, Anthrocon was amazing, as I've already discussed with many interested parties. If anyone has any more questions, just ask me!

Now for another meme, or a modification of one I saw somewhere. Just a listing of the watchers/watchees and other furs on FA whom you've actually met, either in person, or in some meaningful way online.

Met in person:
~ Alexruu
~ chipcaramel
~ D6016
~ Data_Husky
~ drakelizard
~ DymphnaWolf
~ Ethanu
~ Grimy
~ izziebear
~ LowLow64
~ nekokittenpurrs
~ sona_asoka
~ Bella_Coyote*
~ Chip_Freakhound
~ Hakoge
~ izziebear
~ n-n-nails
~ TaniDaReal*
~ wakeham
~ Draces*
~ Stew*
~ Damage-inc.
~ Jager_Wolf
~ Shads
~ Morticia*
~ SerenFey
~ Lamper*
* Met at AC 2012 (all others local obviously)

Know online (facebook, MSN etc.) but not in person

~ AnimalGirl79
~ Diti
~ DustyTheMare
~ elysium
~ metalx69
~ SaphireTheFortunate
~ TwisterHusky
~ Shippofoxboy

Anyone omitted please tell me!

From  bella_coyote

Conventions Name:
ANTHROCON - A Midsummer Night's Dream

Website:
http://www.anthrocon.org/

Transportation type:
Plane

Hotel you're staying at:
The Doubletree

Dates:
6/13/12 Wednesday - 6/18/12 Monday

Rooming with: Mom and Dad tagging along to do their own thing in the city.


Gender:
Male

Description (out of suit):
6'5" fair hair, reddish beard

Fursuit(s):
Pat Patriksson (Bay horse partial)

Relationship Status:
Single - probably

Relationship Type:
?

Who you will be with a majority of the time:
We'll see what happens! I do know at least one person attending.. one of the first furries I ever met online  stew

Main purpose for attending:
To experience an event like this before I turn 30

Where you usually eat:
I've never eaten there... we'll see!

Parties:
We'll see

Fursuiting:
YES

Daily activities:
Whatever tickles my interest

Nightly Activities:
The dances look pretty fun

What time I usually go to bed and get up:
No idea

Do you talk out of suit:
Yes...

Do you talk in suit:
I'm inconsistent lol

Rules of engagement out of suit:
Like you would any stranger

Rules of engagements in suit:
Hugs are fine lol

How far is too far:
The fact that I'm uncomfortable even filling this out should clue you in..

Can I dance with you:
Sure, why not?

Can I take pictures with you:
Absolutely

Can I buy you things:
That's a little weird..

Best communication medium to reach you:
Facebook me, though I can't guarantee I'll have time or opportunity to answer.

http://www.furaffinity.net/journal/3242319/

Go here to express your opinion for a psyche survey.

Big announcement:
I will be attending Anthrocon this June in Pittsburgh. I have pre-registered and have a hotel room booked at the DoubleTree a few blocks away. I really liked this year's theme: "A Midsummer Night's Dream." I have this image of hanging out in the lobby, eating grapes and drinking wine, with unicorns and satyrs all about XD I'll have to read that play before I go as well.

The only question remaining is, who is going to go with me? Whether it'll be someone in the local fandom, some other friend or if I'll have to bribe a family member remains to be seen lol

Anyway, should be a good time!

Cheers

29 years old today...

This meme has been around for a while, but it's worth updating for this past year.

1. What did you do in 2011 that you'd never done before?
Went to Montreal, got a tattoo, kissed a girl, went to a sci-fi convention


2. Did you keep your new years' resolutions, and will you make more for next year?
Some of them, so I'll just have to stay with the holdovers from last year haha


3. How will you be spending New Year's Eve?
At home.. watched Lorenzo's Oil

4. Did anyone close to you die?
Not super-close, though there was a tragedy where one of the women who worked in our front store died in a car accident

5. What countries did you visit?
No new countries. Just Montreal for the U2 concert!


6. What would you like to have in 2012 that you lacked in 2011?
The discipline to sit down and write/edit.

7. What date from 2011 will remain etched upon your memory, and why?
July 9th - U2 concert at the Hippodrome de Montreal!


8. What was your biggest achievement of the year?
Hmmm.. I held the same job for the full year for the first time ever. And got a raise along the way!


9. What was your biggest failure?
Not moving enough on the publishing of my book.

10. Did you suffer illness or injury?
Had what might have been strep through for a day or so, but certainly nothing serious.

11. What was the best thing you bought?
Dancing Erik!! XD


12. Where did most of your money go?
Montreal... and rent and car insurance lol

13. What song will always remind you of 2011?
That one that goes.. Everyday I'm shufflin... XD And The Creep!

14. What do you wish you'd done more of?
Writing!

15. What do you wish you'd done less of?
Procrastinating on internet like this XD


16. What was your favorite TV program?
Still The Simpsons... and discovered Breaking Bad and Battlestar Galactica as well.


17. Do you hate anyone now that you didn't hate this time last year?
Don't think so...



18. What was the best book you read?
A Dance with Dragons (fiction) and Manufacturing Consent (non-fiction)


19. What was your greatest musical discovery?
Umm.. maybe Gordon Lightfoot's "Carefree Highway"
'And this thing that I call living is just being satisfied and knowing I've got no one left to blame' <3


20. What was your favorite film of this year?
Gotta go with Happy Feet Two

21. What did you do on your birthday, and how old were you?
28 and I worked


22. What kept you sane?
My job and my friends and family

23. Who did you miss?
Lee, though I finally got to see him again at MUN Medicine Monte Carlo night.


24. Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2011
A year goes by really fast, so don't waste your time!

First of all, a very solemn 11/11/11 to you all. It's been nearly a Century since 'The War to End all Wars' Let's not only remember the past, but also try to stop similar events in the future.

On a much lighter note, we're now down to one week until George Miller's Happy Feet Two hits North American cinemas. Some of you may know this (and some may not), but the original has been one of the most important movies in my life and is the very reason I am posting on this site! Basically, I joined the Happy Feet Fan forum just over three years ago and on that site, I met some very good friends, many of whom happened to be furries. I suppose I had always been a furry at heart, but that site gave me an excuse to interact with those members, despite the stigma sometimes attached to the fandom; and it's been just about three years since I first identified as one of them.

So yeah, really excited about this new movie. Hope it's at least as good as the first, and given the talent behind it, it just might be!

I've been on this site over two years now...

Fursuit is still work in progress: Here's a pic from the June furmeet, if you didn't see it. http://www.furaffinity.net/view/6004445

Had an amazing time in Montreal in July

And last week got a tattoo of my fursona done. http://www.furaffinity.net/view/6392810

Sorry for being sparse on the details.. it's late at night XD

"The first 10 artists who comment on this journal will be featured here, along with three pictures chosen from their gallery by myself!

If you answer, you'll have to do the same in your journal, putting me on the first place, completing the list with 10 other people.

This is a very cool meme that offers the possibility of exposure for artists of all skill levels who might not be that well-known.

Starting with  dustythemare
Realistic DustyxCerros http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5173968/
Dark Head shot http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5363963/
New Badge Style (Couple Version) http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5267630/

The 1st
Penguin brother  elysium
First ever flying Flipper Bird http://www.furaffinity.net/view/1814305 (photo)
Birds of a Feather http://www.furaffinity.net/view/3159424 (story)
A Special Birthday http://www.furaffinity.net/view/2718976 (story)

Plug for art raffle.

http://www.furaffinity.net/journal/2549750/

I will be attending our first local furmeet of the summer this Saturday in Bowring Park. Should be a good time and, for me, a bit less nerve-wracking than last year since I now know a few local furs. :)

Also, might have parts of my fursuit ready for Saturday! As of last night,  chip_freakhound had the foam sketeton of the head pretty much finished, meaning it has only to be furred.

This is Chip's design for the head.
http://www.furaffinity.net/view/4029294

Here is Chip's drawing of the head and schematic designs of the feet and hand-hooves. http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5793721

UPDATE from last night: http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5983931 This is a shot captured (and drawn upon a bit lol) from Chip's stream last night.

Officially announcing (though some of you already know) that I am delving ever deeper into the depths of furriness... that is to say, I've commissioned a full fursuit that will hopefully be done within a few months time! The costume is being made by the incredible  chip_freakhound

Update: the fur has all been here for some time and construction of the head has officially begun! We're now looking to have a partial done in time for the next local furmeet.

This is Chip's design for the head at this point: http://www.furaffinity.net/view/4029294
More art and updates to come. Stay tuned!

Another update: Here is Chip's drawing of the head and schematic designs of the feet and hand-hooves. http://www.furaffinity.net/view/5793721

From :dustythemare:

Few artists are man/woman enough to openly answer any and all questions thrown at them. Are you? Prove it. Copy/Paste this as a new journal entry and answer every question you get.

The rules are simple:

-You must answer every question you get no matter what it's about and you must do so honestly.

-There are no questions that can not be asked as long as they are within reason. They can be personal, about oc's, and every thing in between.

Stolen from  lowlow64

COMMENT AND I'LL:

1. Tell you something I'll learn about you by looking at your FA page for 13 seconds.
2. Tell you which color you remind me of.
3. Tell you my first memory of you.
4. Tell you what pokemon you remind me of.
5. Ask you something I've always wondered about you, and your answer has to be as vague as possible to keep the suspense.
6. Tell you my favorite thing about you.
7. Give you a weird nickname
8. Tell you what's on my shirt right now.
9. Challenge you to post this on your journal

Just now, I noticed I've been on Furaffinity for exactly one year now. Where does the time go? I've seen some nice art and even put up a bit of my own. A big thank you to all my watchers and all those I watch! *whinnies happily*

As of Monday this week, I am officially a Pharmacist! Much hard work lies ahead, but I am pretty much set for life. Hurray!

http://www.furaffinity.net/journal/1492249/

Advertising this person's contest. Follow the link.

1. If your fursona had to be a primate, it'd be a...
Gorilla

2. If your fursona had to be a feline, it'd be a...
Snow Leopard

3. If your fursona had to be a canine it's be a...
half-wolf, half-husky, half-fox

4. If your fursona had to be a hoofed animal, it'd be a...
Icelandic horse... which it is already

5. If your fursona had to be a rodent, it'd be a...
Squirrel

6. If your fursona had to be reptile, it'd be a...
Komodo dragon

7. If your fursona had to be a marsupial, it'd be a...
Wallaby

8. If your fursona had to be a fully aquatic animal, it'd be a...
Orca

9. If your fursona had to be an amphibian animal it'd be a...
Poison arrow frog... the deadliest of them all XD

10. If your fursona had to be an avian/bird, it'd be a...
Emperor Penguin.. should make my friends happy

11. If your fursona had to be a creepy crawly, it'd be a...
roach... just like Franz Kafka lol

12. If your fursona had to be a real or unreal hybrid, it'd be a...
Zorse

13. If your fursona had to be a mythical creature, it'd be a...
Unicorn

14. If your fursona had to be a Pokemon/Digimon...
I dunno... Rapidash?

15. If your fursona had to be a vehicle, it'd be a...
Saturn EV

Been doing this on facebook for a few years; might as well post it here too.

The third time around, I’m better prepared than ever to offer valid opinions on the Oscar nominees, if not any more likely to improve my accuracy in predicting the winners. Indeed, I will be hard pressed to do better than the 84% I managed last year. All the acting awards seem pretty obvious, but beyond that there are quite a few tricky ones. In any case, I’ve done as much homework as possible, having seen 7 of the 10 (that’s right 10) Best Picture nominees.

And that is the biggest novelty of this year’s awards – the expanded Best Picture field. This is the first time this has been done since the ceremony for 1943, in which the top award went to Casablanca. The idea behind this was to improve Oscar’s appeal to the masses by allowing more populist films to make the cut. Ironically, this year two quite popular films (Avatar and Inglourious Basterds) would have been nominated to a field of five anyway. The rest just seems watered down. One of the results of this move has been the second-ever animated feature nominated for Best Picture… Up? Really? Up? I love animation, it is well known, but in the decade that gave us Chicken Run, Shrek and Happy Feet it seems pretty anti-climatic that this drought should be broken by a totally decent, but often meandering and cookie-cutter sentimental Pixar product. Even this year, there was another much more deserving candidate – more on that later.

The genesis of the Best Picture expansion (art-house vs populist) also plays out in the two top contenders for Best Picture and Director. We have the highly regarded The Hurt Locker and the mega-blockbuster Avatar – the highest grossing film of all time both domestically and internationally. Avatar fans may well tune in and be disappointed to see a film they’ve never seen or heard of steal the top prizes. It should be an interesting night, to say the least. Once again, for reference I’ve included tomatometer percentages and IMDB weighted mean votes for each film. These reflect critical and popular opinion, respectively.

BEST PICTURE
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Blind Side 70% 7.8
District 9 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire 91% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4
Up in the Air 90% 7.9

First, I should mention the ‘instant runoff’ form of balloting that will be used in this (and only this) category. Instead of voting for one film, voters list out the 10 in order of preference. For example, my ballot (so far) would read:
1.Inglourious Basterds
2.District 9
3.Avatar
4.The Hurt Locker
5.A Serious Man
6.Up
7.An Education

If one film gets a majority of first place votes, then it wins. If not, the last place film is dropped and its backers have their second place votes counted. This goes on until something has over 50% of the votes. This highly favors The Hurt Locker (and possibly Inglourious Basterds) over Avatar. Avatar is a polarizing film that is seen by some all spectacle and no substance. It is more likely than the other two to get a large number of 8th, 9th and 10th place votes, which hurt its chances. Personally of those two, I prefer Avatar. Not that I generally like blockbusters over small films, but I just thought it was better. Go figure.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – this one would solve the dilemma of art vs populism as it is high in both entertainment and literary merit. Absolutely brilliant - both a study in and an example of film as historical propaganda (He who controls the past controls the present). It’s not about war – it’s about movies! And might just be a dark horse in this category.

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, 'Avatar' 82% 8.5
Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0
Quentin Tarantino, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4
Lee Daniels, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Jason Reitman, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9

You can think of these as the five ‘real’ best pic nominees. Two Canadians, a woman, a black guy and Quentin Tarantino make up this interesting field. Like Best Picture, it could go either way between ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow. Tarantino is a dark horse.

Prediction: Katherine Bigelow – Oscar loves to shatter glass ceilings and The Hurt Locker is seen as good enough to warrant that. Avatar was quite an achievement, but Cameron has one already and his movie is seen as trivial (it’s James Joyce compared to Titanic, but never mind…)
Should win: Quentin Tarantino – not his best work but good enough that he deserves this award. He may have to settle with another one for writing, though.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
George Clooney, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Colin Firth, 'A Single Man' 85% 8.1
Morgan Freeman, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Jeremy Renner, 'The Hurt Locker' 97% 8.0

I’ve only seen Renner in The Hurt Locker, so not much personal opinion here. Freeman looks perfect as Nelson Mandella.

Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart – he’s been winning everything else
Should win: Don’t know

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side' 70% 7.8
Helen Mirren, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Carey Mulligan, 'An Education' 95% 7.7
Gabourey Sidibe, 'Precious' 91% 7.6
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia 75% 7.3

Meryl Streep did a good impression of Julia Childs. Mulligan’s performance was highly regarded, but I thought she was miscast. She’s 24 playing a 16-year-old, but she looks to me to be in her early 30s at least.

Prediction: Sandra Bullock – haven’t seen The Blind Side yet, but it’s got all the buzz here. This is just an example of statistical determinism…. If you appear in 3000 movies, eventually you win an Oscar! This will also the biggest victory of the night for populism.
Should win: Don’t know

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, 'Invictus' 77% 7.5
Woody Harrelson, 'The Messenger' 90% 7.6
Christopher Plummer, 'The Last Station' 68% 7.3
Stanley Tucci, 'The Lovely Bones' 32% 6.7
Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds' 89% 8.4

Would have loved to see Jackie Earle Hayley in Watchmen among these… oh well.

Prediction: Christoph Waltz – a lock. Creepy, eccentric, weirdly charming, the banality of Evil personified… and great in 4 different languages. That’s a bingo!
Should win: Waltz – the only one I’ve seen, but again, so great. It will be a three-peat for Pure Evil in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, 'Nine' 37% 6.4
Vera Farmiga, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Maggie Gyllenhaal, 'Crazy Heart' 92% 7.8
Anna Kendrick, 'Up in the Air' 90% 7.9
Mo'nique, 'Precious' 91% 7.6

I’ve seen none of these, but by all accounts Mo’nique is as big a lock as Waltz

Prediction: Mo’nique in Precious – she only needs one name; that’s how confident she is.
Should win: Can’t say.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Coraline 89% 7.9
Fantastic Mr. Fox 93% 8.2
The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
The Secret of Kells 100% 7.6
Up 98% 8.4

This was a strong year for animation. Even with five nominees, many notable films didn’t make the cut including Miyazakis’s Ponyo, the mega-blockbuster Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, the visually innovative Monsters vs. Aliens, the popular Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, and Robert Zemeckis’ uncanny adaptation of A Christmas Carol. For the first time, two animated films (Up and Coraline) made the AFI’s top ten list. However, neither of these deserves to win, in my opinion.

Prediction: Up – a Best Picture nominee and has won most major predictors… Up winning this award is the global warming of the Oscars – a disaster that I can see coming perfectly well, but just can’t seem to do anything about.
Should win: Fantastic Mr. Fox – one of the best movies of the year and my favorite from Wes Anderson. Unique, very funny and leaves you feeling great. This should have got Best Picture and adapted screenplay nominations as well. It could be a spoiler, but its only chance is if the voters are as Pixar-fatigued as I am. Another very dark horse is The Secret of Kells – if it was good enough to get a completely unexpected nomination once voters had seen it, could it be good enough to get a completely unexpected win? Finally, I haven’t seen The Princess and the Frog, but I’ve heard good things.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar 82% 8.5
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 83% 7.4
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglorious Basterds 89% 8.4
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1

This is interesting. With its use of 3-D, Avatar is a possibility, but is problematic because so much of it is completely computer generated. If it wins, we risk redefining what cinematography is. I, for one, think it should involve an actual camera.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker – I think Avatar will get its due in the visual effects category.
Should win: Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds

WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
The Messenger 90% 7.6
A Serious Man 87% 7.5
Up 98% 8.4

Avatar (like Titanic) fails to get even a nomination for screenplay. This one is between Inglourious Basterds and The Hurt Locker and will be much closer than it should be.

Prediction: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds: Brilliant writing in four different languages; it actually uses language as a plot device in a few places. You really have to know the nuances of English, French, German, (and a bit of Italian) to get the most out of this movie.
Should win: Inglourious Basterds – would be a travesty if it didn’t. There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the writing in Hurt Locker

WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9 - 90% 8.3
An Education 95% 7.7
In the Loop 93% 7.7
Precious 91% 7.6
Up in the Air 90% 7.9

Terrible snubs here include, Watchmen (“Beneath me, this awful city, it screams like an abattoir full of retarded children”) and Fantastic Mr. Fox (“If what I think is happening, is happening, it better not be.”)

Prediction: Up in the Air
Should win: It’s the only one I’ve seen, but I’ll say District 9. A very accurate depiction of the Republic of South Africa (if it had aliens), I’m told, and utilizes a lot of local dialects effectively.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Almost There” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Down in New Orleans” - The Princess and the Frog 85% 7.6
“Loin de Paname” - Paris 36 - 59% 6.4
“Take It All” - Nine 37% 6.4
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart”) - Crazy Heart 92% 7.8

No live performances this year, so we won’t get to see Randy Newman singing his pair of nominated song from The Princess and the Frog. I would like to have seen there commenting on the show as it went a la Family Guy ;)

Prediction: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Should win: None of these really wowed me, but Down in New Orleans was pretty good.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Avatar – James Horner 82% 8.5
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat 93% 8.2
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders 97% 8.0
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer 69% 7.6
Up - Michael Giacchino 98% 8.4

Prediction: Up – Michael Giacchino of LOST fame seems to be winning a lot of awards for this one.
Should win: Anything for Fantastic Mr. Fox will be good in my view; it definitely has a great soundtrack overall.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 - 90% 8.3
Star Trek 94% 8.2

Seen ‘em all.
Prediction: Avatar maybe?

ART DIRECTION
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
Sherlock Holmes 69% 7.6
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2

Avatar has the same problem here as the Star Wars prequels; so much of it is contrived. Still, this award covers both the conceptual aspects as well as the sets themselves and there aren’t really other strong contenders.

Prediction: Avatar

SOUND MIXING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 20% 6.1

This is the only category I haven’t yet predicted correctly. It should be obvious this time, but you never know… Why is Transformers 2 nominated? By all accounts that sound was one of the worst things about that reprehensible film – turned up on blast in the theaters, the shriek of steel on steel is quite harsh.

Prediction: Avatar

SOUND EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
Up 98% 8.4
Sometimes these two split – sometimes they don’t. I’ll keep it simple.

Prediction: Avatar

Short Film (Live Action)
The Door 8.0
Instead of Abracadabra 7.9
Kavi 7.4
Miracle Fish 7.3
The New Tenants 7.8

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Short Film (Animated)
French Roast 7.2
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty 6.5
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) 7.5
Logorama 7.9
A Matter of Loaf and Death 7.7

Don’t bet against Wallace and Gromit (the last one), but I’ll skip this one.

MAKEUP
Il Divo 92% 7.4
Star Trek 94% 8.2
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2

Prediction: The popular Star Trek will pick one up here.

Foreign Language Film
Ajami 97% 6.9
El Secreto de Sus Ojos 8.4
The Milk of Sorrow 86% 7.0
Un Prophete 94% 8.1
The White Ribbon 83% 8.1

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FILM EDITING
Avatar 82% 8.5
District 9 – 90% 8.3
The Hurt Locker 97% 8.0
Inglourious Basterds 89% 8.4
Precious 91% 7.6

Prediction: The Hurt Locker – often the best picture winner gets this one

Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province 7.2
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant 6.6
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin 8.0

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ 96% 8.0
The Cove 96% 8.6
Food, Inc. 97% 7.9
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers 100% 7.7
Which Way Home 100% 8.0

All of these look quite interesting actually. I’ve seen the two main contenders – The Cove and Food Inc. Both are about important isssues, but The Cove is easily the more cinematic of the two. A true story of a tremendously courageous people confronting unimaginable Evil and moral terror. What little criticism there is against it says that it is one-sided (in the way that Schindler’s List was one-sided, I guess). It’s a truly unique piece of cinema and one of the few movies that might just honestly make the world a better place. Maybe the most important movie of the year.

Prediction: The Cove
Should win: The Cove

COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star 83% 7.3
Coco before Chanel 64% 6.6
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 66% 7.4
Nine 37% 6.4
The Young Victoria 75% 7.2
Prediction: The Young Victoria – a popular period for this category

Stolen from  saphirethefortunate

1. What did you do in 2009 that you'd never done before?
Danced with a giantess!

2. Did you keep your new years' resolutions, and will you make more for next year?
Not exactly because I've never seriously had one. Probably should give it a try.

3. How will you be spending New Year's Eve?
At home with the family.

4. Did anyone close to you die?
no,

5. What countries did you visit?
Mexico and mainland Canada

6. What would you like to have in 2010 that you lacked in 2009?
Permanent job and certificate

7. What date from 2009 will remain etched upon your memory, and why?
May 24 - first day of PEBCs

8. What was your biggest achievement of the year?
Graduated University (for the second time) AND finished novel!

9. What was your biggest failure?
OSCEs

10. Did you suffer illness or injury?
Other than sadness, nothing major...

11. What was the best thing you bought?
I dunno... new sneakers? (after 4 years)

12. Where did most of your money go?
Mexico and pharmacy licensing tests.

13. What song will always remind you of 2009?
Mostly terrible ones unfortunately: Waking up in Vegas, Boom Boom Pow, I Gotta Feeling

14. What do you wish you'd done more of?
Work
15. What do you wish you'd done less of?
Be lazy.

16. What was your favorite TV program?
The Simpsons (for the 20th consecutive year). xD

17. Do you hate anyone now that you didn't hate this time last year?
Nope..

18. What was the best book you read?
Our Choice by Al Gore (non-fiction) Watchmen by Alan Moore (graphic novel) Paradise Lost by John Milton (verse) A Clash of Kings by George R.R. Martin (novel)

19. What was your greatest musical discovery?
Run Through the Jungle by CCR is an awesome song (heard it in Tropic Thunder)

20. What was your favorite film of this year?
Watchmen, Inglourious Basterds, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Cove

21. What did you do on your birthday?
Thinking waaaay back... watched Kung Fu Panda, I think

22. What kept you sane?
Hope and various friends including  elysium and  saphirethefortunate

23. Who did you miss?
My friends from school (after grad)

24. Who was the best new person you met?
The technician Erica from work... and  lowlow64 and Dr. Pulla on facebook

25. Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2009
Never give up!

From  lowlow64
Basically, post and I'll answer these questions about you.

1. I'll respond with something random about you.
2. I'll tell you which song or movie you remind me of.
3. I'll pick a flavor of jello to wrestle you in.
4. I'll say something that only makes sense to you and me.
5. I'll tell you my first memory of you.
6. I'll tell you what animal you remind me of.
7. I'll ask you something I've always wondered about you.
8. I'll tell you my favorite thing about you.
9. I'll tell you my least favorite thing about you.
10. If you play, you SHOULD post this on yours. *not have to*