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What Message Speaks the Drums?
2 weeks ago
Welcome to my thoughts! Watch your step!
Well . . . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G24_1FbBrbg
Poland scrambled F-35 and F-16 fighter jets last night as Russia sent about fourteen combat drones into its airspace by way of Ukraine. The drones are believed to be part of a massive strike package that hit civilian and infrastructure targets within Ukraine last night. One of the targets was reportedly a group of retirees gathering to pick up their pension payments.
Anyway.
The Polish government reports that all the drones were shot down, has lodged a formal protest in Moscow, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk states that Poland now stands at its closest to open conflict since World War Two started in 1939. This time, however, the Poles are members of NATO, so they can focus their attention in only one direction - the Russian Federation. There are also reports that Russian media are establishing a propaganda narrative against Finland, another NATO member.
So let's game this out a little.
Russia has lost over a million casualties since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Their once-vaunted armored columns have been ravaged, the Black Sea Fleet is generally afraid to sortie, and Ukraine is systematically attacking Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure targets in marked contrast to Russia's current strategy. Putin isn't completely crazy, former KGB or not, so why start provoking the Poles and making bellicose noises against the Finns and the Baltic republics?
Putin needs the West to stop supporting Ukraine so he can conquer that nation, and he's made no secret of his desire to expand Russia to its pre-1991 borders. Invasion of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would likely be next after Ukraine falls. What will happen to the Ukrainians under Russian rule doesn't bear thinking of; we've seen reports of what's going on in the occupied areas.
I don't see the Finns or the Baltic states rolling over for Putin; they've got their independence, and they mean to keep it.
Putin must also realize that he's in trouble. Russia before 2022 was an oil and gas exporter, and the sanctions hit their economy hard. Thanks to Ukraine targeting refineries and pipelines, there are now reports of lines at gas stations and supplies of some types of gasoline are not getting to businesses in eastern Siberia. If he stops the invasion and withdraws to the border, he would be unable to overcome the loss of face - and no Russian leader can afford to look weak. If he goes all in and orders a general mobilization, he runs the risk of the entire Russian economy collapsing as people are subtracted from the work force and inducted into the military (and we saw the exodus of young people of military age a couple years ago before Putin started combing through the prisons, hiring mercenaries from Africa, and concluding an agreement with North Korea to be supplied with artillery ammunition and KPA soldiers).
Now, this may have been a simple piloting error on the part of the drone operators. There are no reports of Polish casualties, so an apology or conciliatory statement might come from the Kremlin. Still, Poland and NATO's vigilance cannot afford to lapse. Eighty years ago, the world saw the consequences of being soft toward a dictator bent on a war of imperial expansion.
What message speaks the drums?
"Tread carefully."
Poland scrambled F-35 and F-16 fighter jets last night as Russia sent about fourteen combat drones into its airspace by way of Ukraine. The drones are believed to be part of a massive strike package that hit civilian and infrastructure targets within Ukraine last night. One of the targets was reportedly a group of retirees gathering to pick up their pension payments.
Anyway.
The Polish government reports that all the drones were shot down, has lodged a formal protest in Moscow, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk states that Poland now stands at its closest to open conflict since World War Two started in 1939. This time, however, the Poles are members of NATO, so they can focus their attention in only one direction - the Russian Federation. There are also reports that Russian media are establishing a propaganda narrative against Finland, another NATO member.
So let's game this out a little.
Russia has lost over a million casualties since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Their once-vaunted armored columns have been ravaged, the Black Sea Fleet is generally afraid to sortie, and Ukraine is systematically attacking Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure targets in marked contrast to Russia's current strategy. Putin isn't completely crazy, former KGB or not, so why start provoking the Poles and making bellicose noises against the Finns and the Baltic republics?
Putin needs the West to stop supporting Ukraine so he can conquer that nation, and he's made no secret of his desire to expand Russia to its pre-1991 borders. Invasion of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would likely be next after Ukraine falls. What will happen to the Ukrainians under Russian rule doesn't bear thinking of; we've seen reports of what's going on in the occupied areas.
I don't see the Finns or the Baltic states rolling over for Putin; they've got their independence, and they mean to keep it.
Putin must also realize that he's in trouble. Russia before 2022 was an oil and gas exporter, and the sanctions hit their economy hard. Thanks to Ukraine targeting refineries and pipelines, there are now reports of lines at gas stations and supplies of some types of gasoline are not getting to businesses in eastern Siberia. If he stops the invasion and withdraws to the border, he would be unable to overcome the loss of face - and no Russian leader can afford to look weak. If he goes all in and orders a general mobilization, he runs the risk of the entire Russian economy collapsing as people are subtracted from the work force and inducted into the military (and we saw the exodus of young people of military age a couple years ago before Putin started combing through the prisons, hiring mercenaries from Africa, and concluding an agreement with North Korea to be supplied with artillery ammunition and KPA soldiers).
Now, this may have been a simple piloting error on the part of the drone operators. There are no reports of Polish casualties, so an apology or conciliatory statement might come from the Kremlin. Still, Poland and NATO's vigilance cannot afford to lapse. Eighty years ago, the world saw the consequences of being soft toward a dictator bent on a war of imperial expansion.
What message speaks the drums?
"Tread carefully."
Vix
Vix
I'm seeing a gigantic 'House of card' built, and the forecast is for the next hurricane arriving anytime now.
Secure yourselves folks. If you refuse, then don't complain if/when you're caught short.
They seem to have severe issues with proper air traffic and air defense operations, including shooting down a couple civilian airliners traveling in normal air corridors. Compared to that level of "ooops", sending a flight of drones in the wrong direction is nothing.
Oops.