FA+
Shop
North Korea: a PHONY threat
15 years ago
General
Have you seen the latest Chicken Littleism on the news about North Korea lately?;
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2010112.....20101123092327
Don't fall for the hype. They do this kind of stuff to each other every couple of months or so --- they HAVE been officially and functionally AT WAR, non-stop, for the past 50 years after all.
Furthermore, North Korea is no threat to South Korea. It's the biggest fake threat of the 20th century;
http://www.fff.org/comment/com0906h.asp
http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm
Half of their SRBMs and Cruise Missiles are duds, as demonstrated by their OWN live-fire testing, and their nukes and ICBMs don't work;
http://www.cdi.org/pdfs/NKMissileTe.....ine7.16.09.pdf
North Korea is one of the weakest regional naval powers in the world --- they struggle to keep a pair of bubba'd Kola class Frigates and a dozen short-ranged subs in the water. Meanwhile, South Korea has the 4th-largest(!) navy in the world, and their Frigates, Corvettes, and Destroyers are among the newest and most-advanced anywhere. They even build their own indigenous AEGIS Destroyers;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KDX-III
...and a f***ing AICRAFT CARRIER;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dokdo_.....s_assault_ship
Then you have ROKAF, which operates 60 F-15E Strike Eagles, 180 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 68 F-4E Phantom IIs, 174 F-5E Tiger IIs, and the indigenous F/A-50 Tactical Fighter under development.
Also, South Korea is developing 5th Generation Air Superiority Fighter with honest-to-goodness Stealth Capability;
http://weapons.technology.youngeste.....uth-korea.html
...and they've joined the development team for the F-15SE Silent Eagle;
http://www.dailytech.com/Boeing+F15.....ticle18968.htm
Also, don't forget ROKA's 90 AH-1 Cobras.
Compare THAT to the KPAAF;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean.....%27s_Air_Force
And what of ROKA's armor, you ask? It includes 1400 K1 MBTs, 35 T-80 MBTs (that's NOT a Typo --- ROKA operates T-80s!), 880 M48 Pattons, 70 BMP-3 Troikas, 1700 KIFVs, 60 K21 IFVs, 190 AAAV-7 Amtracks, and 400 M113 Gavins.
The KPA has barely 1000 tanks and 2500 IFVs in "service", most of which aren't serviceable (and some of which are irreparably worn-out).
The KPA's artillery consists of some 6000 individual pieces, but these include mortars, infantry guns, mountain guns, coastal artillery, built-in bunker weapons, World War 2-era stuff, and non-serviceable equipment of all sorts.
In stark contrast, ROKA operates 100 175mm M107s, 100 203mm M110s, 532 155mm K9 Thunders, 1180 K55s, 130+ K136 MLRS', 60+ KM270 MLRS', 500 155mm KM114A2s, and 1000+ 155mm KH-179s --- this does NOT include light artillery, mortars, coastal guns, etc.
But China will save the day for North Korea once again, just like they did in the 1950s... right?
WRONG!
North Korea is a never-ending pain in the ass for China. Their saber-rattling constantly disrupts regional stability (and with it, Chinese foreign trade), and China does business with South Korea --- and has BILLIONS of $$$ invested in Seoul --- rather than the North, which has poor industry, commerce, and agriculture (literally MILLIONS of North Koreans die of famine every decade).
In fact, China is so overrun by illegal aliens from NK, that they actually build a military-operated border wall along thier border with NK, to keep the trespassers out;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chines.....n_border_fence
Think about that for a moment; these people are risking certain death by fleeing into China, to ESCAPE dictatorship...
Don't count on Russia to come to Pyongyang's aid, either --- they business with the South rather than the North these days, for the same reasons (remember all those T-80s and BMP-3s ROKA has?). If the North manages to get the Russians involved, they'll regret it VERY quickly.
And then there's Japan, who (to make a long story short) will clean Kim Jong Il's clock if he sucks Japan into the war. The JSDF doesn't play around.
Don't forget that the US military has a sizable presence in South Korea, too. XD
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2010112.....20101123092327
Don't fall for the hype. They do this kind of stuff to each other every couple of months or so --- they HAVE been officially and functionally AT WAR, non-stop, for the past 50 years after all.
Furthermore, North Korea is no threat to South Korea. It's the biggest fake threat of the 20th century;
http://www.fff.org/comment/com0906h.asp
http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm
Half of their SRBMs and Cruise Missiles are duds, as demonstrated by their OWN live-fire testing, and their nukes and ICBMs don't work;
http://www.cdi.org/pdfs/NKMissileTe.....ine7.16.09.pdf
North Korea is one of the weakest regional naval powers in the world --- they struggle to keep a pair of bubba'd Kola class Frigates and a dozen short-ranged subs in the water. Meanwhile, South Korea has the 4th-largest(!) navy in the world, and their Frigates, Corvettes, and Destroyers are among the newest and most-advanced anywhere. They even build their own indigenous AEGIS Destroyers;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KDX-III
...and a f***ing AICRAFT CARRIER;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dokdo_.....s_assault_ship
Then you have ROKAF, which operates 60 F-15E Strike Eagles, 180 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 68 F-4E Phantom IIs, 174 F-5E Tiger IIs, and the indigenous F/A-50 Tactical Fighter under development.
Also, South Korea is developing 5th Generation Air Superiority Fighter with honest-to-goodness Stealth Capability;
http://weapons.technology.youngeste.....uth-korea.html
...and they've joined the development team for the F-15SE Silent Eagle;
http://www.dailytech.com/Boeing+F15.....ticle18968.htm
Also, don't forget ROKA's 90 AH-1 Cobras.
Compare THAT to the KPAAF;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean.....%27s_Air_Force
And what of ROKA's armor, you ask? It includes 1400 K1 MBTs, 35 T-80 MBTs (that's NOT a Typo --- ROKA operates T-80s!), 880 M48 Pattons, 70 BMP-3 Troikas, 1700 KIFVs, 60 K21 IFVs, 190 AAAV-7 Amtracks, and 400 M113 Gavins.
The KPA has barely 1000 tanks and 2500 IFVs in "service", most of which aren't serviceable (and some of which are irreparably worn-out).
The KPA's artillery consists of some 6000 individual pieces, but these include mortars, infantry guns, mountain guns, coastal artillery, built-in bunker weapons, World War 2-era stuff, and non-serviceable equipment of all sorts.
In stark contrast, ROKA operates 100 175mm M107s, 100 203mm M110s, 532 155mm K9 Thunders, 1180 K55s, 130+ K136 MLRS', 60+ KM270 MLRS', 500 155mm KM114A2s, and 1000+ 155mm KH-179s --- this does NOT include light artillery, mortars, coastal guns, etc.
But China will save the day for North Korea once again, just like they did in the 1950s... right?
WRONG!
North Korea is a never-ending pain in the ass for China. Their saber-rattling constantly disrupts regional stability (and with it, Chinese foreign trade), and China does business with South Korea --- and has BILLIONS of $$$ invested in Seoul --- rather than the North, which has poor industry, commerce, and agriculture (literally MILLIONS of North Koreans die of famine every decade).
In fact, China is so overrun by illegal aliens from NK, that they actually build a military-operated border wall along thier border with NK, to keep the trespassers out;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chines.....n_border_fence
Think about that for a moment; these people are risking certain death by fleeing into China, to ESCAPE dictatorship...
Don't count on Russia to come to Pyongyang's aid, either --- they business with the South rather than the North these days, for the same reasons (remember all those T-80s and BMP-3s ROKA has?). If the North manages to get the Russians involved, they'll regret it VERY quickly.
And then there's Japan, who (to make a long story short) will clean Kim Jong Il's clock if he sucks Japan into the war. The JSDF doesn't play around.
Don't forget that the US military has a sizable presence in South Korea, too. XD
"North Korea just tested it's first nuclear bomb. Congratulations! Now they just need to spend another decade to build a catapult large enough to lob it to Seoul." ;3
http://www.patriotfiles.com/forum/s.....d.php?t=109722
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_Wheel_Tank
http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/.....und-clearance/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsa-bV7m2WM
There aren't a lot of people who consider that North Korea doesn't even have enough money to feed itself, or that they have half of South Korea's armor and no navy; or that South Korea's equipment is some of the best and newest in service anywhere, while almost all of North Korea's equipment is some of the worst and oldest.
Or, that North Korea's "super weapons" don't work. XD
It's a bit like a cheap zerg rush against an enemy base specially built to withstand it.
The recent artillery strikes are not the worst cases of the DPRK's childish lashing out, I take it more as the despotic 'governments' attempts to bargain more aid or get similar concessions...the best responce would be to do nothing...isolation and withdraw aid; which the South is doing. If a military responce was really called for then I pray that it'd be special forces destroying said artillery sites (I REALLY! wanna know how the S.K return fire fared in counter artillery fire) or 'gunboat diplomacy' like we did in Bierut flying armed bombers unhindered through territory though not actually dropping them, the image of a SK F-15 doing rolls over pyongyang would certain get the message across!
China is embarassed with this latest case, and Japan is chomping at the bit to show how tough it is after being humiliated by China and Russia over desputed territories...their responce was very predictable, especially given to the DPRK's military's prefferation to kill foreign troops (infact that is now the only card the DPRK has left to play to get aid (bar the horrific thought of holding Seoul hostage with hidden WMD/Chemical weapons)) - it'd be hugely difficult to kill USKOR forces in a border clash - US troops have been pulled out of FOP's along the DMZ to prevent just that...it'd be more easier for them to kill Japaneese, since they - according to the Nork properganda - are just as bad as the 'US Imperialists'...and thats perhaps the main conclusion from this latest episode; the only 'next big thing' the norks can do now is damage/destroy/kill 'western' or japaneese.
lol! I could waffle on and on over the DPRK, its a big personal interest of mine; here are a few blogs you'd find VERY interesting;
http://freekorea.us/googleearth (this is his google earth observations, go to the frontpage for his thoughts on the current situation)
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29 (the best general info on Koreas armed forces, he has several other guides, Taiwan, china, russia and Iran amongst others, couldn't reccomend him more than I could!)
http://www.dailynk.com/english/index.php (a news site run and informed by Nork defectors and resources within the hermit kingdom)
hopefully after reading all these and the others linked on said pages, you'll have a greater understanding on the subject...lol rather than say
Most of that artillery isn't serviceable, and bombarding civilians as "morale targets" doesn't work. It didn't work on Britain in either of the World Wars, 3 years of it didn't make the Japanese surrender (it took nukes, a blockade, and the threat of invasion to do that), it didn't work on North Vietnam, and it didn't work on Serbia in 1999.
"...also nuclear weapons which we let them develop."
All TWO of them, and they were both duds --- so are all the ICBMs they've ever tested. Contaminating 3 city blocks with fallout isn't going to impress the South Koreans.
"The recent artillery strikes are not the worst cases of the DPRK's childish lashing out, I take it more as the despotic 'governments' attempts to bargain more aid or get similar concessions..."
If you ask me, it seems more like Pyongyang is trying to act-out to get attention. As we gave them plenty of that, all we can expect in the future is that when the rest of thew world starts to ignore them again, their next move will be even more grandiose.
"If a military responce was really called for then I pray that it'd be special forces destroying said artillery sites (I REALLY! wanna know how the S.K return fire fared in counter artillery fire)..."
That info is probably classified, but the 155mm K9 Thunder has given the KPA a LOT to worry about in that respect. Here's the performance data for the K9;
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milit.....k/k9-specs.htm
Also, South Korea has an indigenous Cruise Missile in the same class as the Tomahawk;
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/w...../chonryong.htm
...and a Quasi-Ballistic Missile based upon the Nike-Hercules;
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milit.....ok/hyunmoo.htm
So, North Korea doesn't have a "missile monopoly", either.
"...or 'gunboat diplomacy' like we did in Bierut flying armed bombers unhindered through territory though not actually dropping them..."
That's a possibility, but the best approach to take with an ineffectual dystopia is to shun them.
"...the image of a SK F-15 doing rolls over pyongyang would certain get the message across!"
Even better, imagine the KPAAF trying to scramble those rusted parts they call "aircraft" hulks in response. XD
"...it'd be more easier for them to kill Japaneese, since they - according to the Nork properganda - are just as bad as the 'US Imperialists'..."
Well, they can TRY... >:D
"[i]lol! I could waffle on and on over the DPRK, its a big personal interest of mine; here are a few blogs you'd find VERY interesting;
http://freekorea.us/googleearth (this is his google earth observations, go to the frontpage for his thoughts on the current situation)[/i]"
That's a LOT of stuff to go through --- I'm gonna have to bookmark it!
"http://www.militaryphotos.net/forum.....es!-%282009%29 (the best general info on Koreas armed forces, he has several other guides, Taiwan, china, russia and Iran amongst others, couldn't reccomend him more than I could!)"
That's an interesting analysis, but anything you find on militaryphotos.com should be taken with a grain of salt. The big, high-profile forums are populated mostly by --- and run ENTIRELY by --- promoters of and/or members of the status-quo, who tend to ban, delete posts from, and tolerate organized bullying against those who think outside the box (their idea of a "forum").
For one example, anyone saying anything good about the M113 or bad about the Stryker, outside of a privileged inner circle, is branded a "Sparky", then systematically mass-harassed, banned, and has all their posts and threads deleted.
"http://www.dailynk.com/english/index.php (a news site run and informed by Nork defectors and resources within the hermit kingdom)"
Defectors aren't a reliable source of information, because the tend to;
1- ...exaggerate and/or fabricate stories, in the hop that a high drama factor will keep them from being deported back.
2- ...be spies or other operatives posing as defectors, in order to infiltrate more easily.
"hopefully after reading all these and the others linked on said pages, you'll have a greater understanding on the subject...lol rather than say..."
When you look at both the numbers AND consider how much of them matter, it's clear that South Korea is holding all the cards.
A quick overview;
Airpower
SK: 280+ warplanes and 90 attack choppers; all operational, all world-class designs.
NK: ~400 warplanes and 24 attack choppers; most are both obsolete and inoperable, and some are irreparable.
Artillery
SK: 3500+ pieces, all mobile, modern and operational
NK: 6000 pieces, most World War 2-era or stationary, and many inoperable.
Naval Power
SK: 1 Aircraft Carrier, 11 Destroyers, 9 Frigates, 12 Subs, 25 Patrol Boats; all are operational
NK: 2 Frigates, ~12 Subs, ~100 Patrol Boats; all are obsolete and badly-outclassed, most are inoperable, and some are irreparable.
Armor
SK: 2300 MBTs, 2300+ APCs and IFVs; all are operational.
NK: 1000 MBTs, 2500 APCs and IFVs; all are obsolete and badly-outclassed, and most are unserviceable.
Army Personnel
SK: 700000 Active, 5 Million Reserve; does not include national police or paramilitary.
NK: 500000 Active, 500000 Reserve (including national police and paramilitary).
National Population
SK: 48.875 Million
NK: 24 Million
Nominal GDP
SK: $986.256 Billion total, $20,165 per-capita.
NK: $28.2 billion total, $1,244 per-capita.
Or, to put it another way, one of these countries has mostly current equipment and all of it is in-service, their troops are all fully-trained to the highest standards in the world, always active, and regularly perform training exercises, plus they a navy, allies, a massive war chest, and foreign trade; all while maintaining prosperity --- and the other doesn't, while 1/20th of it's population starves to death every year, because the whole country isn't worth enough money to buy enough food to feed itself.
I know which country I would bet money on.
That's an interesting analysis, but anything you find on militaryphotos.com should be taken with a grain of salt.
indeed but not Planeman ^^ fantastic work, many hours of work put into it... coupled with 'onefreekorea' its the best info out there since janes is long since out of date. Dont let your experiance with waffling over an old armour issue sway you...infact, he has his own blog where he creates them, that forum is just one of the places he posts them...
NK.net is actually one of the best news-feeds and resources about NK there is, from the leadership to the general mood of the masses, I am not impressed by you so simply shunning it - along with 'freekorea' which also places an analytical eye on NK.net reports, its the best info out there...and I certainly wouldn't say through my research and whats clearly evident on all sites linked that most defectors arent over-exaggerating the famine, death-squads, Concentration/work/'re-education' camps either...Not to mention China's actions to nork defectors... Sure it could be infiltrated, but what would 'spies' learn from being in there or shelving out dissinformation? With the Internet being so vast in info...hell opsec is mostly useless thanks to such sites with people sharing info on almost anything.
While you'll bet on who wins, maybe its best to bet on how many deaths would result from an armed incursion? No, it cant happen as easy as most people here will think, check out freekorea's 'Plan B' and if you have anything to contribute; contribute to those sites...lol FA is deffo not the place XD
If you care to debate this more then please use the Note function :3 As I said, FA is not the place XD
If they do, they'll regret it. Quickly.
"I know that makes me a bad person but things are so bad that when/if war breaks out, either A) the civilians living there will revolt or B) they'll take up arms with their military and it'll make things just a whole lot easier."
A revolution is by far the biggest fear of the North Korea government, which is the main reason why it's such an insanely over the top dictatorship. In fact, 10% of it's population is already in jail --- just look at the links that Yellow07 posted in his comment above!
It' important to remember that job No.1 of Pyongyang is Regime Survival. They don't really care about unification, national defense, or even communism.
"I have no respect for them and I do keep hearing about how China will defend N. Korea but I also keep hearing about how every time they do shit like this, China gets into emergency talks with N. Korea, not on their behalf but to tell them to fucking stop it!"
China's patience is indeed wearing thin --- mine would be too, if a neighbors' feuds brought the cops over every day.
Check out the link in my journal on the Border Wall China's building on their border with North Korea.
And even MORE amusing, look at Yellow07's links showing where North Korea's military bases are, in relation to China; their northern frontier is virtually unguarded!
For a country that spends more on cheap military than to feed its own populace, losing the one thing they are so obsessed about would turn the regime inside out.
People die, revolution comes, and NK turns into a shaky, poor democracy that has to start from scratch.
In the long perspective, it's better for them to have a painful yet short war and rise from the ashes than for the poor masses to suffer a fraction of eternity in pain under a thuggish hipocritical regime.
Hmm. I might get flamed for this, but I actually can't wait for a war to start, for the situation to recieve an utter tabula rasa, for a spark to set fire to new events, be they positive or negative.
Any fear it could turn into a mess is justified, yes.