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My predictions for the F-35 Lightning II JSF
15 years ago
General
I've been giving a lot of thought to the Joint Strike Fighter Debacle lately, and I can't help but wonder what disasters this project is a primer for.
Drawing upon my knowledge (some of which, I will admit, is limited) of aviation history and current fighter technology trends,
Why, you ask? Partly so that I can say "I told you so!", but mostly to show that when things go pear-shaped (and they WILL), there will be proof right here that the outcome was obvious all along --- and that if those who had a vested interest in the F-35 knew what was good for them, they would have listened.
These are 20 possibilities I see in the future for the F-35;
1- When it enters full production, the *actual* Unit Cost will be revealed to be over $400 Million.
2- Just the same as Lockheed's PROMISED "1600-mile" range proved to be only 850 miles, and it's PROMISED "22500lb" empty weight proved to be 29300lbs, the other attributes of the F-35 will all prove to be much weaker than the contract required. The 60000ft service ceiling, 50000ft/min climb rate, 13000lb payload, 50000lb maximum take-off weight, 150-mile scan range, and Mach 1.6 top speed will ALL prove to have been massive overestimates. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
3- Like the F-111D Raven, the enormous physical complexity, and all-purpose "tri-service" design (i.e., "all-singing and all-dancing") will result in maintenance demands so massive, they will be cannibalized for parts at a rate of one airframe-per-day. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
4- As the house of cards, FAKE positive image of the F-35 begins to collapse, at least 4 of the 9 participants in the JSF program will drop-out, and buy other aircraft made by other countries.
5- Like the F-22A Raptor before it, a number of additional variants of the F-35 will be proposed --- and also like the F-22A Raptor before it, none will ever be manufactured.
6- Just as with the F-111 Raven, the F-35 will prove to be one of the greatest humiliations in the history of the DoD --- and at the same time, no one responsible for it will get in trouble.
7- Either the F-35 will suffer massive losses in combat over a very short span of time (just like the F-111 Raven before it), or the DoD will find some excuse to keep it out of the combat in the first US war that begins after it officially enters service (like the B-1B Lancer, B-2A Spirit, and F-22A Raptor before it).
8- The first time the US military DOES use F-35s in combat, it will only be against an enemy with little or no fighter cover or SAM systems (or otherwise against an enemy who isn't competent enough to use them, like the B-1B Lancer and B-2A Spirit over Afghanistan and Iraq) so that the F-35 can't lose.
9- There will be a political s***storm when the F-35 fails the combat test in Close Air Support (the role of the A-10 Thunderbolt II that the F-35 is meant to replace).
10- The USAF brass will try to replace the F-15E Strike Eagle with more F-35As, as an excuse to siphon more funding to their future sugar daddies in Lockheed.
11- There will be a scandal when the vertical and horizontal stabilizers of the F-35 begin to demonstrate a tendency to suddenly snap-off during sharp maneuvers and/or high-speed flight. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
12- By the time the F-35 is fully established in the US military, the 6th Generation of Tactical Fighters will have proliferated into the air forces of multiple threat countries.
13- Many-times-cheaper T-50s, J-20s, and other highly advanced 5th-gen fighters will defeat the F-35 in every merit-based competition.
14- The F-35's wasteful engine, limited internal stowage capacity, lack of rear visibility, large size, and high wing loading will prove it to be poor in combat against fighters, while it's microscopic gun ammo capacity, delicate construction with NO ARMOR (despite being larger and heavier than an A-10!), poor payload, and few weapon stations will prove it ineffective in air-to-ground combat. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
15- The F-35's complexity, expenses, and hidden flaws will be it's undoing, but the DoD will propose a replacement that promises to be exponentially MORE complex, expensive, and flawed --- and Congress will pick your pocket to fund it. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
16- Of the 3000+ F-35s originally promised, less than 1000 will be built.
17- The poor performance of the F-35 in combat will quickly result in other fighters constantly supplementing it in combat --- for the USAF's F-35As, most of these will be the A-10s, F-15s, and F-16s it "replaced". No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
18- Just as the USAF will try to invent a new excuse to keep the failed F-35 program alive by proposing that they also replace the F-15 E Strike Eagle, the US Navy will soon try to push the F-35 as an F/A-18E Super Hornet replacement.
19- When it enters service, each F-35 variant will be heavier than they are now, and all will have shorter ranges. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
20- The because if it's sheer size and degraded Stealth technology (from the F-22), the F-35's Radar Cross Section will prove to be at best no smaller than the comparatively tiny F-16 is was meant to replace. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
I'll admit that I'm "shotgunning" it, but this is nowhere near Nostradamus' scheme of making THOUSANDS of predictions, so that at least a few could somehow come true.
So, if you read about any of these things happening in the future, remember that I said it was going to happen, way back on March 15th of 2011!
Drawing upon my knowledge (some of which, I will admit, is limited) of aviation history and current fighter technology trends,
Why, you ask? Partly so that I can say "I told you so!", but mostly to show that when things go pear-shaped (and they WILL), there will be proof right here that the outcome was obvious all along --- and that if those who had a vested interest in the F-35 knew what was good for them, they would have listened.
These are 20 possibilities I see in the future for the F-35;
1- When it enters full production, the *actual* Unit Cost will be revealed to be over $400 Million.
2- Just the same as Lockheed's PROMISED "1600-mile" range proved to be only 850 miles, and it's PROMISED "22500lb" empty weight proved to be 29300lbs, the other attributes of the F-35 will all prove to be much weaker than the contract required. The 60000ft service ceiling, 50000ft/min climb rate, 13000lb payload, 50000lb maximum take-off weight, 150-mile scan range, and Mach 1.6 top speed will ALL prove to have been massive overestimates. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
3- Like the F-111D Raven, the enormous physical complexity, and all-purpose "tri-service" design (i.e., "all-singing and all-dancing") will result in maintenance demands so massive, they will be cannibalized for parts at a rate of one airframe-per-day. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
4- As the house of cards, FAKE positive image of the F-35 begins to collapse, at least 4 of the 9 participants in the JSF program will drop-out, and buy other aircraft made by other countries.
5- Like the F-22A Raptor before it, a number of additional variants of the F-35 will be proposed --- and also like the F-22A Raptor before it, none will ever be manufactured.
6- Just as with the F-111 Raven, the F-35 will prove to be one of the greatest humiliations in the history of the DoD --- and at the same time, no one responsible for it will get in trouble.
7- Either the F-35 will suffer massive losses in combat over a very short span of time (just like the F-111 Raven before it), or the DoD will find some excuse to keep it out of the combat in the first US war that begins after it officially enters service (like the B-1B Lancer, B-2A Spirit, and F-22A Raptor before it).
8- The first time the US military DOES use F-35s in combat, it will only be against an enemy with little or no fighter cover or SAM systems (or otherwise against an enemy who isn't competent enough to use them, like the B-1B Lancer and B-2A Spirit over Afghanistan and Iraq) so that the F-35 can't lose.
9- There will be a political s***storm when the F-35 fails the combat test in Close Air Support (the role of the A-10 Thunderbolt II that the F-35 is meant to replace).
10- The USAF brass will try to replace the F-15E Strike Eagle with more F-35As, as an excuse to siphon more funding to their future sugar daddies in Lockheed.
11- There will be a scandal when the vertical and horizontal stabilizers of the F-35 begin to demonstrate a tendency to suddenly snap-off during sharp maneuvers and/or high-speed flight. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
12- By the time the F-35 is fully established in the US military, the 6th Generation of Tactical Fighters will have proliferated into the air forces of multiple threat countries.
13- Many-times-cheaper T-50s, J-20s, and other highly advanced 5th-gen fighters will defeat the F-35 in every merit-based competition.
14- The F-35's wasteful engine, limited internal stowage capacity, lack of rear visibility, large size, and high wing loading will prove it to be poor in combat against fighters, while it's microscopic gun ammo capacity, delicate construction with NO ARMOR (despite being larger and heavier than an A-10!), poor payload, and few weapon stations will prove it ineffective in air-to-ground combat. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
15- The F-35's complexity, expenses, and hidden flaws will be it's undoing, but the DoD will propose a replacement that promises to be exponentially MORE complex, expensive, and flawed --- and Congress will pick your pocket to fund it. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
16- Of the 3000+ F-35s originally promised, less than 1000 will be built.
17- The poor performance of the F-35 in combat will quickly result in other fighters constantly supplementing it in combat --- for the USAF's F-35As, most of these will be the A-10s, F-15s, and F-16s it "replaced". No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
18- Just as the USAF will try to invent a new excuse to keep the failed F-35 program alive by proposing that they also replace the F-15 E Strike Eagle, the US Navy will soon try to push the F-35 as an F/A-18E Super Hornet replacement.
19- When it enters service, each F-35 variant will be heavier than they are now, and all will have shorter ranges. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
20- The because if it's sheer size and degraded Stealth technology (from the F-22), the F-35's Radar Cross Section will prove to be at best no smaller than the comparatively tiny F-16 is was meant to replace. No one responsible for the F-35 will get in trouble for this.
I'll admit that I'm "shotgunning" it, but this is nowhere near Nostradamus' scheme of making THOUSANDS of predictions, so that at least a few could somehow come true.
So, if you read about any of these things happening in the future, remember that I said it was going to happen, way back on March 15th of 2011!
My take on it has been much simpler. "Can't have all your eggs in one basket". Most of the aircraft the F-35 were supposed to replace were specifically designed for their assigned roles. Like, for one example, you mentioned the A-10. Nothing is going to match the A-10's capabilities. And you sure as hell can't make something to replace the A-10 that will also do well in air to air combat. As for the F-16 - part of the allure of the '16 was that it was already very versatile and cheap (last time I looked up construction and operation costs, it was one-third of the cost of building and operating an F-15E).
But I have another beef with the F-35 that you didn't mention. Overuse of stealth technology? You mentioned its stealth technology is "degraded", but I think there's another aspect that needs to be considered. When the US had a small handful of aircraft with stealth technology, it was still a bitch to keep the aircraft and the technology under lock and key. Also, the enemy's desire to counter it was there but not overwhelming because they could still detect most of our other aircraft.
With the DoD's apparent desire to have every aircraft be stealth...maintenance costs are going to exponentially skyrocket, the technology is going to be in so many different places that it is going to leak out (again), and everybody and their mother is going to be developing counter technologies because it is going to be that much more important when you are dealing with 1,500 stealth aircraft, verses 55. It's the whole mouse verses mousetrap deal.
I got a bunch of more rants about the F-35, but you covered most of the rest of them anyway. TL;DR, shitsux and I've been saying it since the program was announced.
- The A-10, possibly the most heavily-armored aircraft ever flown, has a 4300lb-LIGHTER empty weight than the completely unarmored F-35.
- Despite carrying 8000lbs LESS fuel, the A-10's 1200 mile range is nearly 50% longer than the F-35's.
- The A-10's 49.4lb/ft2 Wing Loading is about 30% lower than the F-35A's 63.69lb/ft2 Wing Loading, making the A-10's ultimate potential for Maneuverability that much greater.
- The A-10 carry's twice as many Chaff & Flares.
- While the F-35A's GAU-22 has 3 seconds worth of 25mm shells, the A-10's GAU-8 has 16 seconds worth of 30mm shells.
And man, don't even get me STARTED on F-35A Vs. F-16C!
Also, the overuse of stealth technology is something I was discussing with a commenter over on DA.
Stealth is just the latest neurotic compulsion of the USAF. Back in the early 1950s, it was all about completely replacing all guns with rockets, and all bomber formations with nukes, both of which would have made the USAF completely *worthless* in every war it fought since.
In the late 1950s through late 1960s, it was all about speed and missiles --- that dogfighting would "never happen again", and that drones and missiles would replace ALL combat aircraft (sound familiar?). Then the Vietnam War happened, and proved it all wrong.
Also very revealing is that lessons-learned from past conflicts are being thrown-aside in the F-35. It has a no-rear-visibility "Clamshell" canopy --- NOT a bubble canopy --- just like US fighters had just before World War 2 (which resulted in the first bubble canopy). The USAF forgot those lessons AGAIN, and Clamshell canopies were the rule between 1950 and 1970... until Vietnam War experiences put Bubble canopies back onto US frighters, from the F-14 to up the F-20 and YF-23. Now, we're back at square one.
Furthermore, Korea proved that rockets were no substitute for internal guns, Vietnam proved that missiles and gunpods were no substitute for internal guns, and now --- lo and behold --- a gun was just BARELY squeezed into the F-35A, as an afterthought, and barely any ammo. In fact, the F-35B and F-35C don't even HAVE an internal gun; they've degenerated into the same pre-Vietnam folly, with external gunpods!
Also, ditto on the folly of trying to make EVERY fighter a stealth airframe. It reminds me of a retort I read once of a general who wanted every US Marine to be a "Commando" (apparently, he hadn't considered how much time, money, and material is required to train a Commando, versus amphibious assault troops).
Stealth isn't even all that useful, either.
During ODS, the F-117 only flew into and out of Iraq through a SINGLE air corridor, and only because it had been cleared of overlapping Iraqi radar scan areas. And F-117s weren't the ONLY Coalition aicraft that flew through this corridor --- so did B-52s, A-10s, F-15s, Tornadoes, F-111s, KC-135s, and RF-4s, just to name a few.
The "stealth" of the F-117 also failed to hide it from three British destroyers, whose E-band radar (the type most common in the 3rd World, and the primary radar of Iraq at the time as well) was able to track them in real time out to 80 miles away. The F-117's "stealth" also prevented it from being shot down by RADAR-guided missiles over Kosovo --- twice!
I've got more rants about the F-35 as well, but it takes forever and a day to type this stuff...
The airframe is versatile, the aircraft is cheap enough to manufacture, it's combat-proven, capable, and already ready exported to other countries.
I would like to see a change of pace in military thinking. Instead of military thinkers looking for the "next big thing" in military aircraft, what about looking for the next legendary aircraft? You know, the sort of aircraft that gets flown forever like the F-4. How long was the F-4 in use in the US? And isn't it still in use in some other countries? Maybe the F-16 could be the next legendary aircraft.
Also, stealth == overrated and cost-inefficient. EVERY generation of stealth technology had been successfully defeated so far:
F-117: Radar sensor grid
B-2: weather radar
F-22: weather radar/multiple-band radar
Good look trying to hide a huge turkey that has LESS stealth capabilities than the F-22, which is supposed to be the peak of stealth technology, yet it has been successfully intercepted when doing a fly-by damn close to russian territory. xD
"The man who designed the Spitfire looked into the summer sky and dreamed of eagles. When I look at that thing, all I can think of is 'Toad'."
- Hans von Hammer, regarding the Me-163 Komet
Stealth is SERIOUSLY overrated, just like speed and missiles were in the 1950s and 1960s.
These are also the very same people who said that the advent of the guided missile hailed the end of the dogfight --- to see how "right" they were, go to Youtube and enter "Dogfight, Vietnam" into it's search engine.
oh...the US already owes quite a lot anyway, so what does it matter of a few more zeros are added to it, but also the prestiege and image of the US aviation and defence indistry would be decimated.
Not to mention the future of the USAF, USMC and USN is rather pinned on it.
There is more than that in the balance, but that alone will ensure that the F-35 will go ahead, like it or not.
So much for the "Joint" Strike Fighter!
I had similar results comparing the F-22A Raptor to a great many other Air Superiority Fighters.
If you'd like to see the results of one of these comparisons in detail, PM me.
Also, I wouldn't regard the F-35 as the paragon of 5th generation fighters, in the same way that the Stryker isn't much of a model for contemporary APCs. The T-50 and KFX201, for example, promise some very formidable performance.
It's . . . not good.