Syria
12 years ago
General
Getting very disappointed with the white house about the situation in Syria. There is an overwhelming lack of evidence to warrant military operations over these chemical weapons attacks.
The 'red line' hasn't just been crossed. It was crossed months ago, but maybe not by the Al Assad regime. The first cases of the deployment of what we now believe to be Sarin nerve agent came in March, 5 months ago when the government of Syria wrote the United Nations stating that rebels had used a chemical weapon resulting in the deaths of about 30 people, soldiers included. Syria REQUESTED that the UN send a team of weapons inspectors into the country. Several isolated incidents of chemical weapons being deployed are reported over the following months. UN weapons inspectors arrived earlier this month on the 18th; three days later the latest massive chemical attacks occurred resulting in a large number of civilian deaths with few reported losses on the side of the military and rebels.
The facts around these incidents are murky. Adding to the confusion is a report in May that senior personnel at the UN had strong suspicions that rebel groups, not the Syrian military, had been using chemical weapons. Indeed, over the past several months the rebels have been losing ground in the conflict as the Syrian military continues to take and hold ground. With the tide in the favor of Al Assad it seems unlikely that he would have anything to gain by deploying chemical weapons and a lot to lose by provoking the ire of the international community.
Could the Syrian military have been behind the chemical weapons attacks? Absolutely, but the rebels may very well have had the capabilities to conduct these attacks and would have far more motive to do so. Not nearly enough facts exist to warrant international military action; especially considering that the effects of this civil war have largely remained inside the country's borders. The white house is pandering to war mongers on the right (Like McCain who visited a group of terrorists in Syria responsible for the kidnapping of Lebanese civilians) and trying not to look soft on war. This is a mistake with massive potential to explode in our faces.
A few related links:
link 1
link 2
link 3
The 'red line' hasn't just been crossed. It was crossed months ago, but maybe not by the Al Assad regime. The first cases of the deployment of what we now believe to be Sarin nerve agent came in March, 5 months ago when the government of Syria wrote the United Nations stating that rebels had used a chemical weapon resulting in the deaths of about 30 people, soldiers included. Syria REQUESTED that the UN send a team of weapons inspectors into the country. Several isolated incidents of chemical weapons being deployed are reported over the following months. UN weapons inspectors arrived earlier this month on the 18th; three days later the latest massive chemical attacks occurred resulting in a large number of civilian deaths with few reported losses on the side of the military and rebels.
The facts around these incidents are murky. Adding to the confusion is a report in May that senior personnel at the UN had strong suspicions that rebel groups, not the Syrian military, had been using chemical weapons. Indeed, over the past several months the rebels have been losing ground in the conflict as the Syrian military continues to take and hold ground. With the tide in the favor of Al Assad it seems unlikely that he would have anything to gain by deploying chemical weapons and a lot to lose by provoking the ire of the international community.
Could the Syrian military have been behind the chemical weapons attacks? Absolutely, but the rebels may very well have had the capabilities to conduct these attacks and would have far more motive to do so. Not nearly enough facts exist to warrant international military action; especially considering that the effects of this civil war have largely remained inside the country's borders. The white house is pandering to war mongers on the right (Like McCain who visited a group of terrorists in Syria responsible for the kidnapping of Lebanese civilians) and trying not to look soft on war. This is a mistake with massive potential to explode in our faces.
A few related links:
link 1
link 2
link 3
FA+

Civilian injuries in the affected region are consistent with a nerve agent attack ("neurologic syndrome" is a hallmark of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors such as G-series nerve agents like Sarin as well as VX). More terrifying is that there are several large weapons depots where considerable stockpiles of chemical agents are known to be stored - and in the wake of a deteriorating Assad regime security at these installations may fail and allow those weapons to fall into the hands of terrorists capable of launching an attack on US/Western assets in the region or possibly in their home countries.
I don't want to see the USA involved in another ground war - we've already lost too many US, allied, and civilian lives in Iraq and Afghanistan in failed attempts at regime change - to say nothing of the cost of another war which the already over-extended US budget cannot handle. Unfortunately, our hand is being forced on the matter by some yet-to-be-determined player who has clearly demonstrated a capability and willingness to deploy CBRN weapons against civilian targets. That, combined with current credible threats from Islamist terror cells against US assets at home and abroad constitutes a necessity for swift and decisive action to neutralize the chemical weapons stockpiles before any more attacks can be carried out. Every moment we delay gives malevolent factions more time to acquire and deploy chemical weapons, and that is reason enough to act.
...personally I'd say just drop a few kilotons of napalm on the weapons depots and be done with it. Heat to that degree will render chemical agents harmless (by means of disintegration) and will sharply reduce the risk of another chemical attack with minimal risk to US and Allied personnel. Barring that, a quick snatch-and-grab invasion (by a true multinational task force like NATO) to seize and destroy the chemical weapons stockpiles will help to reduce civilian casualties and reduce the risk that terrorist groups will obtain any WMDs amid the chaos.
The Syrian people in their right to self-determination can feel free to slug it out until they're content with their country, but the use of chemical weapons by anyone under any circumstances is absolutely unacceptable. CBRN weapons are a threat to all of humanity, and it is the duty of all able sovereign states to curtail their use.
It's not as simple as an air-attack or SF snatch&go. We're not going to get all of the sites, that's just the reality of the situation. We also can't conduct strikes on the weapons sites without taking out other government and military structures in the process. We're talking about an operation which would tip the balance in the favor of the rebels- the rebels who are the very islamic terrorists you worry about. We're setting outselves up for a repeat of Soviet Afghanistan by taking out a strong secular gov't to be replaced by a deeply islamic state. At which point those weapons we couldn't hit would no longer be in the hands of a national strong-man trying to keep in power, but a weak muslim state which may seek to export jihad.
This isn't just about the risk of CBRN weapons being deployed today, this is about who is going to be in power to use what's left of those weapons tomorrow. We can't force our way in to scoop up the bombs. Syria has been cooperating with, and even calling upon the UN for assistance. Instead of planning to force our military in there agaist Al Assad we should seek to put blue-helmets on the ground to guard these weapon sites and help stabilize the government.
The main issue is to eliminate the CBRN weapons threat, since use of these weapons by ANY side is unacceptable. If destroying Assad's chemical arsenal compromises his regime, so be it - it's better than letting him gas his own people. The longer those depots remain standing, the greater the likelihood of another chemical attack - whether its Assad gassing his own people again or the rebels using it on perceived government supporters or a third party like Al Qaeda gaining access to the chemical stockpile and using those weapons against us or our allies. We need to take the CBRN stockpiles off the playing field immediately or they're going to be used again by someone.
And it might not need to be a Special Forces operation. We send Assad an ultimatum to surrender the weapons depots to the UN and international forces for disposal. If he refuses, an international coalition would storm the depots from bases in Turkey and Lebanon or with an amphibious assault from ships in the Mediterranean, supported by airstrikes and cruise missiles to clear the way to the sites. Any non-coalition military forces along the path, government or rebel, can either throw down their weapons and surrender or be destroyed. We move in quickly, accomplish our objectives, and then leave entirely - just like an improved version of Desert Storm.
With the chemical weapons stockpiles neutralized, the Syrians can fight it out on their own. We just need to ensure that no more chemical attacks occur.