Looks like we've got a chance for significant tornadoes today north of the I-44 corridor in OK, KS, and MO. The main area of activity is likely to be focused along the dryline in far northern OK into southeast KS, but a second area of severe/tornado development could be possible in central MO along the warm front.

Another day shaping up to be much like yesterday, just a little farther south and west. Again, crap moisture and weak shear should keep the tornado threat to a minimum, except near the surface low/dryline interface in central OK. SPC has issued a moderate risk for large hail today along the I-44 corridor in northeast OK. Storms should start out discrete, but quickly evolve into a somewhat linear cluster as the cold front moves in from the northwest.

After a nearly record slow start to the 2015 severe weather season, it looks like today will be the first round. SPC has placed southwest Missouri in an "enhanced" risk for severe. The risk is mainly for large hail. Low-ish dewpoints today, and weak helicity could prevent more surface based storms from occuring, keeping the tornado threat minimal. However, it should not be ruled out completely. Those in the Springfield/Branson MO area should keep an eye on the weather as the afternoon progresses.

http://youtu.be/1JC79gzZykU

It's a fascinating watch.

Looks like after the horrific evening that Arkansas endured, conditions are setting up for a repeat. Both the Nashville and Birmingham NWS offices revealed a "loaded gun" sounding this morning (http://www.theweatherprediction.com.....soundings/gun/), and models suggest the development of a surface low in northern Alabama as the afternoon progresses. This is definitely a situation to pay attention to. Anyone living between Nashville, TN and Birmingham, AL should be on the alert. If you have friends in that region, you might want to give them a poke.

In particular, Sunday through SW Missouri into Arkansas. This could potentially be our first significant tornado event for this year. Folks living in that area will probably want to stay alert and pay attention to local media for weather info.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...../day3otlk.html

Behind schedule, and colder than usual for a lot of us, but it looks like spring may finally be here. And it looks like a few days of severe weather across the eastern plains. No widespread outbreaks are expected, but a tornado or two are certainly not out of the question. I wish I had more time to look over the details, but the combination of work and school pretty much only leaves me time for a few hours of sleep each day, and nothing else.

Time for.... winter 2.0.
A rex block looks to be setting up in the SW CONUS. That will keep the eastern trough stagnant for the next 8-10 days. Overall, I expect this spring to be much like last year.... practically nonexistent. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong, but I've seen little to indicate otherwise.

Got my time off work approved for the last week of May, woooooo!
Right now the plan is to go solo this season. Hopefully nature will cooperate, though that can be a lot to ask of her.

After a brutally cold and snowy winter for the midwest, we start to get a taste of spring. With that, the Storm Prediction Center has placed western Missouri and eastern Kansas in a small slight risk area today. Tomorrow the threat area increases considerably, as a large squall line is expected to sweep from west to east from the Ohio Valley down to the gulf coast. Tornado threat is minimal, but those in the affected areas should still keep an eye out. The system then picks back up along the east coast on Friday. Afterward a return to cold for several days, but nowhere near the record setting deep freeze we experienced in January.

This is a serious day for the Ohio Valley. Shear profiles are perfect for long track, violent tornadoes over a widespread area today. CAPE values will be fairly low, but pure amount of forcing and turning with height is all that will be needed to get things going. No cap in place, so these storms are going to go up very fast, possibly a line of supercells across the threatened area. Anyone living in Indiana needs to keep a close eye on the weather today. These storms will be moving very fast, as high 60 or 70 mph so you have a great deal of lead time.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...../day1otlk.html

For those of you that can read soundings, the following are central Illinois and southwest Ohio, respectively at 0z.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sound.....00_OBS/ILX.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sound.....00_OBS/ILN.gif

Looks like another trough is crossing the central plains. This one seems to have a neutral tilt and a much weaker surface low associated with it. Shear looks decent enough, but moisture is severely lacking.
This does not look like a tornado setup at all, and probably only a limited QLCS threat. What does develop will likely be limited to western KS/NE.

For those interested in chasing, this is probably one to sit out.

Two robust supercells developed along the Nebraska/Iowa border today, producing multiple giant tornadoes. Several exceeding a mile wide. Damage reported around Wayne, Macy NE as well as Sloan, Quimby IA.

Tomorrow's severe threat is farther east, across Illinois and Indiana, and appears less significant.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...../day2otlk.html

There's a fair chance for supercells/tornadoes along the IA/MN border tomorrow afternoon and evening, followed by a squall line along the cold front down through KS/MO. Extent and severity may depend on if there's a cap early in the day. Right now NAM shows no cap, which could mean storms go up early. That could reduce potential severity.

Hi folks, I've had a busy few months with an out of state move, changing jobs and such.
Ironically the process of moving occurred during the brief burst of violent tornado activity in late May. As many know, Moore OK was dealt another horrible blow. Every bit as bad as the May 3 1999 tornado. Not long after that, the chasing community lost one of it's most respected members, his son, and a colleague. What's remarkable is that this is the first storm chaser death directly related to a tornado since chasing began half a century ago. Here's hoping it's another 40-50 years before it happens again.

In spite of the news-making violent tornadoes across Oklahoma, this year is shaping up to be a record low in total number of tornadoes. As well, hurricane season has been incredibly slow. I'm sure this a big relief to many living along the coasts.

Hopefully I can start making regular updates again now that things are settling.

We're looking at the possibility of the first large scale severe weather event of the spring. So far models have consistently shown an active pattern moving in Monday, and likely to remain persistent through Wednesday. The SPC is now on board with their outlook as well. The text goes into more detail:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

NWS has given us their outlook for the spring season. Largely falls in line with what many of us armchair forecasters were supposing.
http://i.imgur.com/z0wwAxe.png
Drought conditions may keep typical plains activity down, while the Ohio Valley may see an increase in activity, with more moist conditions as well as riding a large temperature/moisture boundary from east to west. Time will tell ultimately how it all plays out.

Severe thunderstorms and occasional tornadoes are making their way across the Ohio and Mississippi valleys tonight, following a powerful cold front that will plunge many of us midwesterners back into bitter cold. However, this burst of early severe storms may be a sign of the spring to come, as long range forecasts suggest a significant warmup come March, after the nasty cold we're likely to continue to see through February. Deep layers of cold air aloft are the playground for convective weather, as are the significant low pressure systems we've been seeing lately. The gulf of Mexico is already showing a warming trend as well, which is where our surface heat/humidity is drawn in from these low pressure systems. The question now is will the jet stream play along, or will it retreat into Canada early like it did last year?

What a busy Christmas this is!
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/.....zard%20Warning
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/.....ornado%20Watch

Hope everyone in the affected areas are staying alert through their holiday festivities.

Severe weather doesn't just mean tornadoes and hurricanes. Blizzards, Nor'easters, and ice storms can also be very significant. They can be huge traffic hazards, and knock out power for long periods. That can really suck when it's freezing cold. Be sure to stay safe on the roads this season and have plans to stay safe and warm if severe winter weather threatens your area.