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The last of the video game Consoles
9 years ago
General
The last video game Console will be a PC
"Hey! You have PlayStation on this thing?" Scott shouted, having seen the black computer tower and maze of wires passing through the desk and branching out to the monitors and peripherals a desktop computer needs.
"Yea, and the Nintendo one too," Mike replied after appearing in the door way, "All of them are on there, got a lotta games too."
Now, this is a snapshot of the future of gaming, any gaming. Microsoft, Sony and perhaps even Nintendo will just be a mouse click away from jumping into the latest title games and an extensive library behind them from the past. There will be no more 'console' or 'pc' gamers, however fret not, the childish rivalry of what 'platform' is best will still remain. So the flame wars will still continue.
Now, the important question of 'Why will there be no consoles?'
That is easily explained through a bit of a history lesson, current news and a little bit of thought. So let us dive in with a bit of history of consoles of the past and the available PC's of the time for a reference towards how both have evolved, and that is an important part.
The history of the consoles from the beginning, and covering all the consoles is a large task and has been done with much more effort and passion than I am willing to type here. However, the Nintendo/Famicom is a good place to start as any.
Nintendo/Famicom home entertainment system. I use this as a jumping off point as it is the most recognizable console and the most wide-spread 'install base' of previous generations. While the Nintendo/Famicom was the beginning of the 3rd generation, it brought awareness that home gaming was now part of the culture.
Now, onto the meat of the argument, the specifications of the Nintendo and an average PC at the time:
1983) The 3r'd Generation
Nintendo
1.7mhz CPU core
2.5kb Memory (Total)
0Mb Hard drive (No storage options, cartridge only)
IBM Personal Computer XT
4.77MHz CPU core
128kb Memory
10Mb Hard drive
These are general specs for computers, as multiple were available and higher price ranges with more power were as well. I chose a 'standard' popular model of the time.
The PC core is 4 times faster, the memory is 42 times more and the hard disk space is close to 100 times better, as some games had no memory and the storage required of games with saves barely went over the kilobyte range.
The numbers show that the PC has the better specifications. It does not mean the PC is better, but do take notice in the size differences. The PC out performs on any numerical level, and is on average, a rough average 48 times more than the console's hardware offerings. Yet the Nintendo system was more popular than the PC for gaming.
1990) The 4th Generation.
Super Nintendo
3.58MHz CPU core
192kb Memory
0Mb Hard drive (No storage options, cartridge only)
Intel
25MHz CPU core (average)
4Mb Memory
100Mb Hard drive
Again. the numbers based on averages; CPU in the PC is 6 times better, the Memory is 20 times better and the storage is 100 times better. On average, the PC is 42 times better technically.
We begin to see, in a 10 year period that the 'average' console -(The Sega was technically 'better', but not as popular as the Nintendo) has become to catch up with the advance of technology, dropping 6 points of average specs compared to the PC.
Let's jump ahead 10 years, to the 6'th generation. I will be using the X-box versus the PC:
2001) The 6'th generation
X-box
733MHz CPU core
64Mb Memory
8Gb Hard drive
PC
1.2GHz CPU core
512Mb Ram
10Gb Hard drive (20Gb and higher were available)
Just 10 years later we see vastly improved hardware between the two. The PC still out-steps the consoles with 2 times better CPU's, 8 times better memory and 1.25 times better hard drive storage. These numbers knock the hardware discrepancy down alot, making the PC just 3.75 times better.
I find this very interesting. Empirical evidence that the performance gap between PC's and Consoles is closing. The PS2 was a bit behind tech wise, but on average, PC's and Consoles are getting closer.
Now, we are going to jump through time again, to 2017-2018. To the release of the X-box 'Scorpio' as it is now dubbed and let's compare my PC specs to what we know of the Scorpio.
2017-2018) The 9th Generation
While the specifics of the Scorpio are still under wraps, we will now move onto speculation based from what we DO know about the new Console:
The XBox-Sc (Scorpio) boasts that it is 4.5 times powerful than the Xbox One. Meaning:
Xbox One Specs
1.75Ghz 8 Core CPU
853Mhz GPU (Graphics card)
8Gb Memory
1Tb hard drive
Now, the question is do we multiply these specs by 4.5 times EACH, or that the system will be 4.5 times more powerful than the Xbox One as a total? We would be seeing a Console that looks like this, with each spec multiplied individually:
Xbox-Sc (Scorpio) [SPECULATION, NOT OFFICIAL!]
4.5ghz 8 core CPU
1.5Ghz GPU (Graphics card)
32Gb Memory
1-2Tb Hard drive and more (upgrades possible)
My PC
4.2GHz 8 core CPU
1.2GHz GPU (Graphics card)
24Gb memory
3.5Tb Hard drive space (Multiple)
I sit in amazement at how close they are, and perhaps the Scorpio will be better than my current PC at the moment. A console in 2017 out pacing a 3 year old decent PC.
Now, with PC gaming, I am a few years behind, as it was built in 2014 and upgraded in early 2016 (New Graphics card and Ram). A console that could be better than a 3 year old PC that I call a 'low end, top tier PC'. Now, this is all just speculation, but clearly the Xbox-Sc will be NEAR or MORE powerful than my personal build PC circa '2015'.
Microsoft announced that Windows 10 will have support (Xbox Live) to play title released on both the Console and the PC. Eventually there will be cross-platform play with some titles, the console will have some exclusive titles, but as time moves on, the titles will be universally available on PC as well as the Xbox-Sc. Depending on how well the PC versions of the game sell, Sony may venture into a PC platform for games in a bit to reach a wider audience.
I've laid out how the PC and Consoles have matched up over time, how the technology gap is quickly closing and will eventually merge. Microsoft and Sony see this as a God-send, what it means for the future of gaming and their respective businesses and for their bottom line. The last nail in the coffin for consoles.
Microsoft and Sony pour billions of dollars into research for console development, what they need for specifications, cost and then development of the technology. Shipping, handling and tests. All of these things create a massive cost behind a console release.
Imagine that cost for development disappearing. They no longer have to spend billions on research for a system. Why, the technology they have developed for the Scorpio (and Sony equivalent) is JUST as good as a PC, perhaps better. Instead of spending Billions on research, let's give our friends at Nvidia/AMD/Intel/Seagate and see what bulk PC parts cost. It won't be billions of dollars in research, and a custom 'Xbox' case for all the parts isn't too hard to make. Why make new tech when you have the equivalent of what you would be making, ready to buy?
What ever comes in the 10th generation of gaming, though many years down the road, those 'Consoles' will be just PC's with Sony or Microsoft skins on them. I'd be willing to bet you could put more memory in them (Ram), perhaps change out the Graphics card. At that point, there is no difference between the 'Console' and the 'PC'.
The last Console will be a PC.
*PS
I have not mentioned a new Nintendo console (The 'NX') for a good reason. Nintendo sees this coming and that is why they have bowed out of the Console 'race'. The NX had been reported to be a hybrid hand-held and console, a transition to a market where they have a monopoly.
*PS-S
These are my thoughts, what I have seen and some of the logic I went through. But, I could be wrong, these are just my thoughts on the matter in regards to gaming perhaps less than a decade down the road.
I'd prefer not to limit my potential entertainment and fun by ordaining a hierarchy where once set of hardware and code is deemed 'better' than the rest. I want to have ALL the fun, not just fun 'over there'.
I don't give a shit about horse power and pretty graphics. I just want good games.
Within a decade, you'll be able to buy a PC that can play just about anything for less than a contemporary console. That's not "master race talk" that's just how technology works.
THAT BEING SAID: at present, limiting yourself to either consoles or PC is a great way to miss out on a lot of good games. Tons of great stuff on PS that'll never end up on PC, for example, and don't even get me started on all the amazing handheld games that'll never be on PC.
They DO make video game consoles.
And by making their console exclusives available on PC, they directly hurt their console business.
They do this because they understand the way things are evolving.
Eh, I'll pick up a Console Game 'Humble Bundle' when that comes out! XD
Hell, man, you art! I don't think they make GIMP for X-bone, y'know? XD
So yeah, not only do you have a much bigger library at your disposal (not even referring to your existing collection, just the sheer number of great free games available on PC is friggin' awesome), it's a utilitarian purchase as well!
Just look at cellphones and the MP3 players, they used to be separate devices, and now our phones can be a computer, music player, gaming (in the loosest sense of the word), calculator, map, compass, gps, clock, video recorder and hell, even a wallet with money in it.
Irrefutably there is evidence that technology merges as it advances, what used to be several devices has now become 1, as it's easier to produce a single device with many uses rather than several devices with one single use.
If you know what is coming, you can prepare yourself for what to buy in the coming days. We don't buy PS2's anymore but for sentimental value and playing the old favorites. No one is supporting them or making games for them anymore and that is how tech progresses. Eventually the old is amalgamated into a new device at a lower cost with more features, condensing down into a single device that would make McGuyver's head spin with the options.
We bicker about it now, but in 15 or so years, it will become normal. A new generation of people will begin playing and they'll just have one box to play it on. They won't know how it was when there were multiple options, as it never existed with consistency when they started gaming and they won't care. Everyone else will be slowly dragged along with them and we can tell tales of 'The X-box' and 'Play Station', to garner interest in playing the older systems. Hell, we may even see a re-production console down the road. "Re-live the classics, all loaded into the PS/Xbox-redux."
Here's the thing with hacking:
When hackers DDoS'd the Microsoft and the Sony servers, the servers that are made explicitly to support the console's online connection and market place, then they go down. The consoles have the Achilles heel you talk about, once central place that gets hacked and the entire network is down. That was what happened with the console services during Christmas. The PC will never get that. Consoles DEPEND SOLELY upon 1 place, 1 server to use online features. Essentially Microsoft and Sony 'controlling' your console, only getting online when they are online themselves.
On PC, there is no Central place, there is no 'One Stop Shop' for crippling the PC so it's unable to play any game at all. To cripple ALL of PC gaming with one blow, you'd have to attack the computer directly, individually on a 1 to 1 basis. A virus. Now, they can TRY to hit Steam, Origin ect, but they have counter measures to that, as they have been DDoS'd before. That hacking, the shutdown you are afraid of, only happens on consoles. If it happens on PC, it's 1-2 games, that's it.
Developers Port to PC all the time. Consoles and PC use a 'language', coding that has to be followed to get something to work. Going from PC to PC, you don't have to code anything differently, as PC's use several standard communication and code protocols that Devs code with anyway be default.
Consoles have a 'custom' code, one that devs have to learn and work with to get the game to work. A code that is different than a PC. Devs make the games on PC anyways, and have to do that 'stupid' porting you say, FOR the consoles, Not the PC. If a game has a problem being ported to the PC, you hired a shitty studio to put it on there... At the end of the day, Devs would rather do PC games than have to work with the insane coding and developer limits of a console.
Unfortunatly consoles have taken a rather odd turn in which they are trying to keep up with the pc's and this is what is inflating the price of the consoles and the games. One thing you did not do was do a price analysis, cost of the console unit and cost of the games. My first console was the Playstation, games back then was $15 to $25 and I believe the console was about $300. A PC at the time would be $1000 for a decent one. (win 95 pc cost about $1200 IMB from Circuit City yes I remember this well) Consoles were always cheaper than the PC but as technology advanced so did the cost of manufacture and eventually instead of being a cheaper alternative it ended up a race of who can provide the best gaming experience.
Pc ultimately will always have one of the best gaming experiences due to the modual format they have for changing components, consoles not as much. But this is also why PC gamer have to spend more money to get those experiences. Don't get me started on how Crysis was the biggest hit where even to this day is a bench mark at testing PC performance.
When you look at if from a marketing standpoint there will always be a market for both console and for games, high quality and high price or high quality and low price. Quality of the product differs slightly but are all equally impressive. When they try to cross bounds is where there is even a risk of destroying your product. You have to look not only at the core product but the augmented product. What is your products features that differentiate it from your competition?
Initial Augmented Product
*Can be played on the Television with larger screen, better sound.
*Small and Light,mobile
*Can play DVD's or BluRay
*games could be traded easily between friends
Your Actual Product would be what you already listed.
2001) The 6'th generation
X-box
733MHz CPU core
64Mb Memory
8Gb Hard drive
PC
1.2GHz CPU core
512Mb Ram
10Gb Hard drive (20Gb and higher were available)
When you start to blur the line between your actual product and you augmented product then you will only be risking damaging your product positioning and this is what has lead to the massive inflation of console systems and their games as we are not placing PC and Consoles together. And as you even highlighted will eventually seek the death of the console as these lines blur even more becoming merged.
There is still more convince is the console but a new contender is even rising up with not only the console but the pc as well. Mobile Gaming. But this is an article unto its own and for another time.
Thanks for reading.