I also cannot conceptualize North Korea starting a real war. But bluffing is a mandatory part of preserving their society with its current resources. I just wonder what scenario existed in North Korea to make them feel like this was something they had to do.

There are some political theorists, both amateur and professional, that feel these tactics are a way for Kim Jong-un to prove to his military and party that he is just as serious and unpredictable as his father. There apparently was some doubt within the ranks about his competence as a leader so it is safe to assume this is him simply flexing his muscles. It is a touch distressing, especially since I have family over there as well, but it is also foolish for N. Korea to go to war with S. Korea and the US because it essentially spells out the party's suicide.

Not to mention. tens of thousands of starving. poorly educated northern refugees should the Kim Family Regime collapse.

Bluffing with Nuclear weapons though, is like waving around a loaded gun in an unsafe manner, among a room full of armed but more responsible shooters.

News this morning on the radio is the Kaesong Industrial Complex is now closed off.

Scott

Since Kaesong is a major source of revenue for them, I doubt they will close it off permanently. What disturbs me more is that North Korea has reactivated the nuclear reactor in Yeongbyeon, which was supposedly rendered unusable by agreement years ago. It seems that any negotiations with them are pointless.

I've thought that for a long time. But then I am old, and have seen them in action since I was old enough to read the news. Kim Il Sung, though was a master Bluffer. Kim Jong Il was also a bit of a pro. Kim Jong Un...we don't know him, other than he likes basketball.

Scott

USA (and South Korea) needs another Curtis LeMay. Period.

Well, bombing North Korea off would certainly solve one problem.... But the aftermath won’t be pretty.

That was what I meant by "But the aftermath won’t be pretty". Such bombings might remove Kim regime, but it won’t help at all with the social problems we will face after war. It is bad enough that a huge population of dirt poor, malnourished, undereducated, and indoctrinated people who will likely cause all sorts of maladaptation problems and wreck economy will flood into south. No, we don’t need lands bombed into nothingness that has to be restored with great costs for long time on top of that. And I doubt indiscriminate bombings would be viewed in positive light by international society.

I do agree with you that reunification would be a tremendously difficult procedure. Unfortunately, many Koreans apply sentimental values based on nationalistic concept of Minzok to reunification and tend to be too optimistic about it. I am afraid that this won’t help much when we actually encounter the problem. Honestly, I wish there was some way to avoid reunification, but unfortunately, it is probably inevitable.

Even the fairly benign re-unification between East and West Germany, put the West German Economy on the skids for 10 years.
it's back now, but there is still a sense of "Ostalgie" in the east.

Scott

It is desperate attempt to hold on to power. Government will fall like many others we have seen.

It's my guess that in a week or two, the propaganda department of North Korea will declare something like that "Kim Jong-Un has stood down the aggression of South Korea and the US, he has defused the situation with his brilliant diplomacy skills," and there will be a return to the sad normalcy of the country.

I hope that further cultural exchanges between NK and others will gradually open up the country in the future.

I don't imagine anything serious happening there. I was stationed at Camp Casey about 45 minutes from the DMZ for 15 months and not once did any of the threats made during my time there result in a serious change of status. After the DPRK declared the armistice void I messaged a few of my friends still over there. The US Military is still conducting business as usual up there which is very telling. No preparations for war have been made on our end; in fact the only things out of the usual are the battle drills going on which had been scheduled well in advance.

I seriously doubt that the North will ever try to invade the South. The citizens of the DPRK may live in a fantasy world, but the generals and top party officials no doubt understand very clearly what's going on. Top military brass travels to china and many of their top political leaders have been educated in the west. They know that the rest of the world looks at their country as a minor power and I think they understand that war with the south would mean the end of their government. I think all these threats are toc cause more patriotism among their citizens and for Kim Jong Un to earn credibility with his top commanders.

A war would result in the complete destruction of the DPRK. The ROK spends almost as much on their own military as the North's entire GDP. Even if the US Military weren't in the region, I think the South could easily defend themselves. The North's hardware is all left over from the cold war, they don't have advanced anti-aircraft equipment, and there is a good chance they would run out of fuel very soon into the conflict. Unfortunately, Seoul would end up leveled. The North has a lot of long range artillery and rockets and their initial push South could very likely reach at least the outskirts of the city. For the US, the troops stationed up in Area 1 (the northern part of the country) would most likely be killed in scores. Our bases are within range of the DPRK's artillery in the DMZ so most of our forces would be either killed outright in the first hours and survivors left unable to fight. I think this is on purpose. There are around 10,000 US soldiers and civilians in Area 1. Their deaths would mean that nobody in the US would have any sympathy for our enemy. In retaliation we would resort to total war tactics immediately, inflicting indiscriminate and horrendous casualties upon the North without anyone in the US opposing it. We have a massive US Air Force and Navy presence in Japan. We would conduct Dresden style carpet bombings of the North with the most advanced munitions in the world. There's also a lot of international treaties that the US has refused to sign. We still have cluster bombs, incendiary explosives, ect. Depending on the circumstances it's entirely possible that the US would use nuclear weapons.

North Korean leaders know this. A war would mean the end of their privileged lifestyle and very likely death. They're not going to attack the South because they want to keep control in their own country.

Thanks for the comment.

After reading several commentaries and articles on the subject, I was beginning to think that it is highly questionable that this would develop into something serious.... And your comment affirmed it. It is quite fortunate for us that we have such a terrifying power as an ally. If people here ask me about the Korean situation again, I think I would be able to reply that the war is unlikely to happen with certainty.

My university is located in Seoul, so it is pretty close to the border....
My family lives in Pohang, which is located much further away from border to south east, but my father has been transferred to Seoul office recently.

I'd be more worried about the US making the first move.

We've put our foot in things we shouldn't have far too many times in the last 50 years. I really hope we don't make a bad situation worse by taking completely unnecessary action yet again because if we do, we run the risk of dragging the rest of Asia in.

Kim Jong Un is an egomaniac like his father, but he's not stupid (at least I don't think he is). I totally agree that if he's a threat at all, he's a "controlled threat" and I'm sure he isn't going to alienate China.

That's kinda a ridiculous fear. There's literally nothing for the US to gain from a war with the DPRK. There aren't any resources in the region worth a fight and it would cost billions upon billions to develop a country that's stuck in 1950 before we even destroy any infrastructure with war.

That said, it wouldn't even be practical for us. Having been up there I can tell you flat out, we're not ready for war in the Korean peninsula. Units there are trying to figure out regular training amid our government's massive spending cuts. We do these war games often, but between those we wouldn't be any more prepared to fight off the North Koreans than a military base is anywhere in the mainland US. Thousands of US soldiers and their family members would be killed within the span of a few hours. Seoul would be crushed. The economics of the region would completely destabilized. Don't get me wrong, we would win the war in a week, but not without a horrific human cost. If things go bad there it won't be a result of shady politics by the US.

Well, imagine this scenario: Obama wants to go down as the president who settled all the scores, and he's willing to take huge risks to do it. The raid on the Bin Laden compound was a perfect example. So what's the oldest score we've got to settle? The score with the DPRK. If he wants to go down in history as the president who made a daring strike to finally end a war on the 60th anniversary of the truce, he's got his chance now.

His foreign policy is proving fairly reckless and cavalier (and I know our last few presidents have done the same, but we should expect better from anyone). I'm not sure this would be beyond him at this point because it's a chance for the history books.

That's nuts. I get it, our government does shitty stuff sometimes, but the thing that people on the far left have to come to terms with is that the invasion of Iraq was an anomaly, not the standard. Obama hasn't painted his walls as the conservative war president, but exactly the opposite of that. We're kinda a crappy country, but we're not going to war with a nuclear nation over a publicity stunt- especially when the last such attempt turned disastrous. You have bias, but the case you're pressing for requires fact. Do you have any evidence to suggest the outlandish situation you're suggesting? Didn't think so. We suck, but we're not that bad.

I don't have any evidence except circumstances. I've been right before and I've been wrong before. I hope I'm wrong.

I know the feeling. I feared the worst in Iraq and it turned out I was right. The facts aren't here though for North Korea, and in fact they make it absurd to think that a war here would be a result of US provocation. This isn't the old administration; we aren't causing conflict in the Korean peninsula.

Obama's continuing the same shadow wars and GWOT policies as the Bush administration.

He just does it with a more charismatic "Progressive" style.

Shadow war implies that there's something secretive going on. The conflicts of this administration and many of those before W have all been fairly transparent for purely practical reasons. The war in Iraq was a PR stunt gone horribly wrong, lead by a party out of touch with reality. The military action of the Obama administration, while sometimes morally reprehensible, have been for pretty clear cut objectives. Regardless, there isn't any evidence at all that the US would have an interest in war in Korea.

What you said was backed up by most the Army guys I work with who were stationed at the DMZ. When I asked "So what exactly is the strategy if North Korea were to invade?" the response I got was usually:

"Blow up the bridges, destroy the roads, and make a fighting retreat until the 3rd Marine Division arrives.

Pretty much, and that's all on the ROK. They're the ones who have the bridges rigged to blow and have tank barriers in place on highways. The US forces in 2ID are all busy fucking their juicy girls and getting drunk in the ville. The guys in area 2 are all admin, area 3 and 4 are logistics. In event of war we'd be overrun in the first few days until the USAF stationed in Japan went all scorched earth. After Seoul got leveled it would be reinforcements from the Army in Hawaii and Marines from Japan pushing up with the ROK troops though the desolated north.

Considering what happened before, North Korea attacked a South Korean island with little consecuences for them and the attack was due "a military excercise provocation" and that's exactly what North Korean government is claiming right know with all those excercises.
I think North Korea's government doesn't act with logic, they can't even provide food for their civlians, that's crazy. I don't know.

North Korea has always carried out these ideas with control in mind. In the past they weathered sanctions and later got foreign aid to tone down their rhetoric. I think Kim Jong Un understands this game and recognizes the stakes more than ever. This is pioneering brinksmanship. He wants to be enough of a pain in the ass for us to buy off with food-aid, but not bad enough to warrant military action. The Kim dynasty is brilliant at this and the bottom line is control of their people, nothing more.

(In Reply to your comment on my page) No problem. One of the few non-pornographic pictures I have faved, the reasoning being that I loved the backstory you give each picture.