COVID - 19 Why THIS response?
5 years ago
Well hello to anyone who cares. It has been over a year since I posted...mainly because the majority of furries strike me as "Liberals", and while there is absolutely nothing wrong with BEING a Liberal and I have friends who have really great ideas, the vast majority (again in my opinion) embrace Liberalism the same way born again Christians tend to embrace faith healing.
That said, this is a complex explanation, made so by the people who want to take a written sentence, and apply their interpretation of it (rather than ask for clarification)
I have 40 years experience as a paramedic and have been seeing, in my own state, the number of people affected and transported for "The Corona Virus". This includes what we call "The worried wounded."
I also have 38 years of experience as a (now retired) Intel officer for the U.S. Army with an emphasis on Defense Support for Civilian Authority (DSCA) in short..how our federal military can assist and prepare from both natural and man made disasters (you know like a PANDEMIC) and I will add, that during this 38 years...the Intel Community has been screaming that a REAL Pandemic WILL hit and no one listened to them (or me) then and I doubt I will get much credence now either.
So let me continue by saying, I HAVE ZERO PROBLEM with people who want to "Social Distance" and "Self quarantine". I think it's about time industry and government support this. All you need to be is a Paramedic / First Responder, trying to treat patients while you have a 104 degree F fever, and a boss screaming "were short HANDED! We need you you can't call off sick.." to understand.
No MY problem is with what I feel is an UNREALISTIC response and panic manufactured by the social media.
Before I start going into my analysis and support of that statement... let me first say Rule #1. PEOPLE DIE OF ILLNESS AND DISEASE AND ILLNESS EVERY DAY. And it doesn't matter the Treatment, Cure or Vaccine (can you say ANTI-VACCERS?) this will HAPPEN. I know a dear friend, Ms. Mel White, described her family's health worries, and she has every right to be worried about her loved ones. My problem is not with the information or the choice, my problem is the lack of education, which I think is manipulating the public.
I would also ask you to keep the following in mind... If I were a person fond of conspiracies... I would ask about the people FUELING this, shall we call it public attitude? Media Moguls at Google, Twitter CNN, Fox News, MSNBC. All multi millionaires with, you guessed it...Stock (as in the Stock Market)...and who's reporting (and in my eyes insistence of social distancing). Knowing this they sell their stock, the markets crash, and then, at the end buy back at a cheaper price (Last I saw, reported 1 democrat and 3 republicans, but I wonder how many went UNreported).
Now... lets take a look at an analysis, done by me.
473 deaths in the US as of 23 March divided by 35,418 total confirmed cases (not including people who had mild or no symptoms and went UNreported) equal a death rate of 1.3 %
World Wide
15,361 deaths / 351,705 cases = 4.4% (death rate)
https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid.....=QBRE&sp=1
Now lets look at the death rates for INFLUENZA
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/.....virus-flu.html
The above rate reports a death rate of between 1 an 2 % for influenza.... with an average of 1.4% in the united states. But has gone as high as 6% (Spanish flu) and as low as 1% (Swine flu)
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IT IS FOR CORONA VIRUS! So WHY don't we have this SAME response every Influenza Season!?
Next point. CORVID - 19 is a NEW virus!
Nope....it is a mutated virus, Corona has been with us for eons. the last one YOU heard about is likely SARS (and only 99% of THOSE people survived)
Vaccines- YES (if your not an anti Vaccer) but did you know, it takes almost a YEAR to produce vaccine, (at which time the virus will likely have burned ITSELF out) AND each Flu season the CDC GUESSES at the strain they will need?
I ALSO seem to remember a Nurse who returned from Africa where she was exposed to EBOLA (just a reminder death rate for Ebola is 50-90%) to be RELEASED because this was NOT fair...and WON...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wo.....rra-Leone.html
What kind of dual standard is this, and what do these people want us to do? I just saw 2 teens JAILED because they coughed on vegetables....but this nurse????
and people wonder why I don't "trust the media" on climate change.
So what exactly is it that these Social Justice Warriors want us to do?
Everyone just listens to the news and just reacts like sheep... instead of doing their own research...if you do not believe me..check out the shelves for hand sanitizer and Toilet paper for a 2 week Respiratory illness...
That said, this is a complex explanation, made so by the people who want to take a written sentence, and apply their interpretation of it (rather than ask for clarification)
I have 40 years experience as a paramedic and have been seeing, in my own state, the number of people affected and transported for "The Corona Virus". This includes what we call "The worried wounded."
I also have 38 years of experience as a (now retired) Intel officer for the U.S. Army with an emphasis on Defense Support for Civilian Authority (DSCA) in short..how our federal military can assist and prepare from both natural and man made disasters (you know like a PANDEMIC) and I will add, that during this 38 years...the Intel Community has been screaming that a REAL Pandemic WILL hit and no one listened to them (or me) then and I doubt I will get much credence now either.
So let me continue by saying, I HAVE ZERO PROBLEM with people who want to "Social Distance" and "Self quarantine". I think it's about time industry and government support this. All you need to be is a Paramedic / First Responder, trying to treat patients while you have a 104 degree F fever, and a boss screaming "were short HANDED! We need you you can't call off sick.." to understand.
No MY problem is with what I feel is an UNREALISTIC response and panic manufactured by the social media.
Before I start going into my analysis and support of that statement... let me first say Rule #1. PEOPLE DIE OF ILLNESS AND DISEASE AND ILLNESS EVERY DAY. And it doesn't matter the Treatment, Cure or Vaccine (can you say ANTI-VACCERS?) this will HAPPEN. I know a dear friend, Ms. Mel White, described her family's health worries, and she has every right to be worried about her loved ones. My problem is not with the information or the choice, my problem is the lack of education, which I think is manipulating the public.
I would also ask you to keep the following in mind... If I were a person fond of conspiracies... I would ask about the people FUELING this, shall we call it public attitude? Media Moguls at Google, Twitter CNN, Fox News, MSNBC. All multi millionaires with, you guessed it...Stock (as in the Stock Market)...and who's reporting (and in my eyes insistence of social distancing). Knowing this they sell their stock, the markets crash, and then, at the end buy back at a cheaper price (Last I saw, reported 1 democrat and 3 republicans, but I wonder how many went UNreported).
Now... lets take a look at an analysis, done by me.
473 deaths in the US as of 23 March divided by 35,418 total confirmed cases (not including people who had mild or no symptoms and went UNreported) equal a death rate of 1.3 %
World Wide
15,361 deaths / 351,705 cases = 4.4% (death rate)
https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid.....=QBRE&sp=1
Now lets look at the death rates for INFLUENZA
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/.....virus-flu.html
The above rate reports a death rate of between 1 an 2 % for influenza.... with an average of 1.4% in the united states. But has gone as high as 6% (Spanish flu) and as low as 1% (Swine flu)
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IT IS FOR CORONA VIRUS! So WHY don't we have this SAME response every Influenza Season!?
Next point. CORVID - 19 is a NEW virus!
Nope....it is a mutated virus, Corona has been with us for eons. the last one YOU heard about is likely SARS (and only 99% of THOSE people survived)
Vaccines- YES (if your not an anti Vaccer) but did you know, it takes almost a YEAR to produce vaccine, (at which time the virus will likely have burned ITSELF out) AND each Flu season the CDC GUESSES at the strain they will need?
I ALSO seem to remember a Nurse who returned from Africa where she was exposed to EBOLA (just a reminder death rate for Ebola is 50-90%) to be RELEASED because this was NOT fair...and WON...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wo.....rra-Leone.html
What kind of dual standard is this, and what do these people want us to do? I just saw 2 teens JAILED because they coughed on vegetables....but this nurse????
and people wonder why I don't "trust the media" on climate change.
So what exactly is it that these Social Justice Warriors want us to do?
Everyone just listens to the news and just reacts like sheep... instead of doing their own research...if you do not believe me..check out the shelves for hand sanitizer and Toilet paper for a 2 week Respiratory illness...
Everything kinda sucks right now
https://youtu.be/n4no04822NQ
When you consider that the Outbreak was in China... which has, arguably, the worst healthcare on the planet next to North Korea, a largely Rural (and aging) population. and a slow response. I don't believe looking at a single source justifies this level of response, or reflects an "informed public" Case and point...your video shows COVID-19 over taking the Cholera outbreak in Haiti. How can you compare the death rate for a Pandemic" (COVID-19) to an EPIDEMIC (local region) of Haiti (many less people). Yes I see it counts as "more deaths" then other pandemics...my only point is, the way the information is presented makes me suspicious...are we comparing apples to apples? Also please remember I do not dispute YOUR right to be concerned, with that right interfering with MY choice to say....it doesn't bother me. And weather or not this is a reasonable or expected response EVERY INFLUENZA SEASON.
A statistic that is conveniently missing..who ARE these victims? How old? what health problems? what access to health CARE?
I am curious do you dispute the raw numbers I stated above? or my Math?
I have gotten so many Shysters (especially in Congress both Republican AND Democrat) I don't believe anything they say.
All I can say is, I was a medic thru SWINE flu.... I was IN HAITI for the Cholera outbreak...and COVID - 19 is NOTHING like those...and that was my own firsthand experience.
How many people have died of this disease? In reality: we do not know. How many people have been confirmed to have this disease and then died? We know that number.
How many people get infected by those who have the virus but not the worst of the symptoms. The science shows it spreads quite like a virus.
We know certain equipment and behaviors stop the spread of a disease, and isolation of the sick is crucial; I'm sure you agree. However, not everyone who has been exposed has been identified. Thanks to many failures at high levels of government, this disease has slipped through the cracks. To stop it, requires these harsh measures thanks to some very stupid people.
So, get your head out of your ass, look at the data, follow the numbers and the science of epidemiologists. And treat this disease like the health crisis it is.
I never thought I would say this, but for real, pull your head out of your own hyperdominant, slavery-fetishizing, torture-porn-fapping ass you creepy, creepy fucking incel. Fuck whichever White Nationalist talking head you get your data from, Crowder or Molineux or Southern or Sargon, and for good measure, slap yourself into some sense.
As a person, I'd say you're... better than RooshV. As a creator, you're just another miserable incel. Just one in the line of caribou and racist zebra nobodies promoting garbage.
I like the WHO (world health organization):
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so.....rsn=96b04adf_2
This article breaks down the differences between the seasonal flu and the beer virus. I'm really not sure where the NYT got those mortality numbers but they are definitely balls weird. The flu has an average mortality rate between 0.1% and 0.05%, I've read papers for covid-19 ranging from 0.7% to 3.4%.
So we're looking at at least 7 times deadlier.
We also know that the makeup of mild and severe symptomatic people is better (fewer severe cases) for the flu than this pandemic.
Now number crunching:
USA Population: 327 million
80% infected (theoretical): 261.6 million
15% requiring oxygen: 39.2 million
5% requiring ventilation: 13 million
0.7% mortality: 1,831,200 deaths
What these numbers mean: We don't have enough ventilators. So unless we slow the spread so that fewer people are using the ventilators at the same time, people with severe symptoms will not get needed treatment and our death rate will be higher than minimum.
We don't have numbers on permanent disability caused by this disease. We know that COVID-19 leaves scar tissue in the lungs, but I personally don't know much more than that at this time.
What social isolation and quarantine does: It slows the rate of infection, meaning that we tax our healthcare system less at any given time.
Putting the death rate in context: In 2017 the USA had 2,813,503 deaths. Assuming non-covid deaths remains the same, we add covid to that and get around 4.644 million deaths. That's a 61% increase in death rate. I'd call a half-again-as-much death rate something to pay attention to.
death rate, 2010-2011: 0.18%
death rate, 2011-2012: 0.13%
death rate, 2012-2013: 0.13%
death rate, 2013-2014: 0.13%
death rate, 2014-2015: 0.17%
death rate, 2015-2016: 0.096%
death rate, 2016-2017: 0.13%
death rate, 2017-2018: 0.14%
death rate, 2018-2019: 0.096%
Granted, Spanish Flu did have a much higher fatality rate, but that was a global pandemic that ended up killing tens of millions of people (by some estimates up to 100 million) and infected around a quarter of the entire world. As indicated by this chart by the New York Times themselves, the said Spanish Flu was comparably infectious *and* fatal to the current Coronavirus: https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphi.....erplot-900.png
In regards to it not being a new virus, but a mutation: the Spanish Flu was also just a new version of the existing influenza virus, but that didn't stop it from again killing possibly as much as 5% of the entire world population.
Fatality rate is not necessarily directly proportional to how infectious or disease-causing a virus is either: Ebola's death rate was indeed extremely high, but as a result makes for an exceptionally horrible virus: due to the high fatality rate after c. 1-2 weeks after onset of symptoms (as well as the debilitating characteristics of said symptoms), Ebola made itself difficult to spread massively between populations, with mostly anyone essentially bedridden from that point forth. The only reason it managed to infect as many as it did was due to the long period of symptom onset (up to 3 weeks). The decision to release the nurse wasn't made on the fact that they didn't consider ebola virus a threat, but because she had already been tested for it quite thoroughly, and turned up negative for it. If no such test had been taken, she wouldn't have had any case at all to not be quarantined for 3 weeks.
Early on in COVID-19's spread, skeptics claimed (correctly) that the flu continued to kill more on a daily basis in the US alone. As a preliminary estimate by the CDC (see above reference) the Flu killed roughly 34,000 people from late 2018 to early 2019, corresponding to an average of 186 deaths per day over the ~6-month timespan. For comparison, two days ago, 67 people died from COVID-19 in the US, and yesterday 109 more people died. Assuming fatalities up to present were infected even just 3 days before death (much shorter than the 2 week sickness period currently estimated, but much shorter is to be expected for those dying from it) that corresponds to an estimated fatality rate of 3.3% (401 deaths for 12,018 infected as of march 19). The only way this fatality rate could be lower is if somehow COVID-19 is killing the average person in less than 48 hours after onset of symptoms, which disagrees with established statistics. In all other situations, the fatality rate in the US is 3.3% or higher. With that in mind, of the 8,808 people diagnosed on the 22nd, statistically, >290 will likely die of it, a value much higher than daily deaths from the seasonal flu. Considering according to the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm) about 7,700 in the US people die from any cause whatsoever each day, adding another 290 to that is no bueno for sure.
Believe me, I really, really don't want to be right about this, and hope that you're right that it's a lot of people getting very worked up over nothing in particular, but everything so far seems to indicate that it is going to be the worst pandemic the world has seen since Asian flu in the 50s, and possibly even Spanish Flu in the 1910s. But still, I very, very much hope I'm wrong about that.
What I do know is a REAL pandemic IS coming, and this is a great rehearsal... but I am just NOT seeing THIS one being it... If they want to change my mind accurately report on who the victims ARE... Ebola Ziare killed 50-90% o people across ALL metrics... CORVID-19....over 80 AND preexisting conditions...
Going on your sight, if we look at HOSPITALIZATIONS (because the actual number is easier to confirm as accurate) compared to DEATHS first line....37,000 Dead / 290,000 Hospitalized = 12.75 %
Next line 12000/140,000 = 8.5 %
etc.
a prime concern of MINE is..it has been reported that with COVID - 19, there are people who are NOT reporting illness, or symptoms... if that is true the denominator could be MUCH larger then currently being reported (or estimated) Making the actual death rte MUCH lower.
As for underreporting illness, many countries have been testing prolifically for anyone who has been in relation with anyone diagnosed with coronavirus. Not all, granted (especially not the US!) but a very good example is South Korea, which has administered 350,000 tests on their population, only 2% of which turned up positive. Assuming the 120 reported deaths from coronavirus are 100% represented, there would need to be over 100,000 undiagnosed (and recovered) people with coronavirus in the country for the mortality rate to be similar to that of the seasonal flu. Considering the average 2 week period between onset of symptoms and recovery, this means that 2 weeks ago, on the 9th, somehow despite prolifically administering tests to every single person exposed to anyone exposed to coronavirus, south korea managed to only achieve a 7% rate of diagnosis, and even now only a 9% (or lower). So either coronavirus is 10-15 times more infectious than we think it is (putting it in several-times-worse-than-even-measles category) or the death rate is still significantly worse than that of the flu.
I understand your point... and reporting illnesses is the double edged sword you, yourself identified. if people are not reporting, the numbers coudl me much HIGHER or much LOWER... which may greatly affect the actual rates involved.
There is no reason MY way should be more right then YOUR way... however If I choose to expose myself...I want that to be my choice... If you wish to avoid areas where *I* am..that should be YOUR right :)
It's like declaring a "Gun Free Zone" because we ALL know no violent person would EVER go against THAT rule.... :)
Without education you will never really comprehend anything. Take an hour and watch the Extra History series about the Spanish Flu ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ9.....k-PJqIejFf4Rh2 ). While the Spanish Flu was much deadlier, note how it was handled and don't be too shocked if you find many similarities in how it was handled.
My "other hat" in the Military was Counter Insurgency. It is a well known Tenant, that you are very UNLIKELY to change the mind of an adult...they have formed opinions....and beliefs...
You destroy ( or create) an insurgency by controlling the children ages 8 to 12, because n 10 years (the average time an insurgency lasts) those 8-12 will be 18-22 and will be RUNNING the country...and if you have indoctrinated them to YOUR way of thinking...they make a movement for YOUR goal...
This is how Both Hitler and Stalin came to power...getting into a position of SMALL power to put in THEIR people in KEY positions....then in a few years,the Key positions vote you in.....
My major problem with these adults is that they never consider the future of their kids (I don't have to, I probably never will have any). Any bad decision they make will be paid for by their kids or their grandchildren.
Something I haven't been taught, but only really noticed recently. Things are always changing, always on the move. We've been taught that there is some kind of status quo, which isn't there.
I'm glad one thing is already being discussed. A basic income guarantee for everyone. No, I don't know how it can be done, but I know it will be necessary. If it isn't already the case, soon there won't be enough jobs for everyone, but we have the resources to guarantee a basic income for everyone. We will reach a state where we can provide 200% of every human's needs with 50% of the workforce or less. And no one has an answer what to do when we reach that.
No one DISPUTES it's a GREAT goal...no one KNOWS how to achieve it....
So long as people can get everything they want, while NOT contributing one thing.... Universal basic income will never work....
Ain't no way in HELL I am going to work MY tail off..so some lazy fat slob can sit back and berate me for not working harder so he can have MORE "stuff"
There is one thing I know what we need to make it work. Say goodbye to the concept of money as we use it and create something that acts in-between so we don't have to go back to the old barter system.
Which essentially kills all banks and stock markets as well as interest rates and everything.
We also will have to crank up automation to the max to kill as many jobs as possible so we need as few people to work as possible. Everyone gets the basics they need to live. Everyone that wants something extra can go working and gets a bonus depending on the skills needed and for which we don't have enough to keep everything going. That includes artists and entertainers as we can measure how many people listened to music for example and the listeners can vote on how good it was.
Most of the restrictions necessary will be that there won't be new versions of something constantly. Like cell phones. There won't be a new one every one or two years. We'll probably will have an updated cell phone every 5-10 years and we won't need several different ones either. One for all will do .
The great pro is that people for the most part can do what they like doing.
And no need to point out that this is only a basic framework and that there will be so many people resisting that working out the problems to make it work will be easy in comparison.
On the other side the next stage of automation will kill so many jobs in the next decades doing nothing could be seen as a violation of basic human rights. Self-driving cars? Say goodbye to taxi drivers, truck drivers and most of the public transportation. RFDI, drones and self-driving forklifts will kill even the jobs in warehouses and so on. As for manufacturing? I can see factories with a line of 3D printers that can manufacture an entire line of different items. I can see a bike is followed by a stroller which is followed by a hand truck all made on the samee manufacturing line.
So much will be possible soon.
Sorry for rambling on.
The biggest problem is people panic buying. Ohio went on lockdown today, they announced it yesterday and I had to rush to the store just to get a few essentials because I knew they would be snapped up by people like the woman in front of me who had $600 of shit in her cart and was buying the max of everything that had a limit on it. Toilet paper hasn't been on shelves in 2 weeks. I have enough for now, but in a few weeks I'll be forced to go out and search. They need to start setting some limits to get the hoarders under control.
But in addition WHY are we restricting Health people ages 18 to 49 who's death rate is VIRTUALLY ZERO (and are the majority of the work force)
Would it NOT be better to identify HIGH RISK and recommend protections for THEM? Hence my Question, can we expect these measure EVERY Influenza season now that we have identified that 1% of people or more DIE????
How are you still peddling a line that even Fox News gave up on two weeks ago? This isn't the same as the flu, this isn't some harmless new bug that we're getting our PC panties in a knot about. It's overflowing hospitals and stacking up bodies all around the world and the people who know what they're talking about tell us we'd lose a couple million citizens to it if we did nothing. I'm disappointed.
I can not tell you the level of disappointment and disgust your reply has instilled into me, and knowing you personally as I do, I would never have thought you would stoop to something this reprehensible.
My question was NEVER, should we all just go to work, rather the question was (and still IS) "ARE WE GOING TO TAKE THESE MEASURES FOR EVERY SINGLE INFLUENZA, SNIFFLE AND RUNNY NOSE FROM NOW UNTIL ETERNITY!"
You know, I have 40 years in the medical field. I guess that accounts for ZERO because it doesn't fit the narrative that you have already accepted as fact. The Questions I have are irrelevant, as in the Stalinist soviet union, it doesn't fit what "the people" have accepted. Os as in China when the Doctor was arrested (executed?) Because HE did not fit the state narrative.
Right now, in Michigan, in West Bloomfield and In Detroit, I have reports of police officers following people and asking them "where are you going?" and issuing TICKETS if THEY think you don't have a good enough reason (Best German Accent "identity papers please..where are you going mien herr?') But a police officer cannot stop you and ask you if you are in the country ILLEGALLY???????????
Every person here REFUSES to just ANSWER the questions I am asking
Example... N95 Masks (remember I have USED these for 40 YEARS...I know I am not a doctor so that makes my questions irrelevant but indulge me). HOW EFFECTIVE IS THE MASK!? Show me ONE study.........just one..please?
Now I know when *I* used them the MANUFACTURE states it is NOT effective against contracting Disease UNLESS YOU HAVE A COMPLETE SEAL... and that it is used to help prevent you from PROJECTING the virus onto others...
I know When *I* use the mask..I can FEEL my breath escaping AROUND the mask (next to my nose...my eyes) not THRU the mask....
Further... the Virus can live ON the mask for up to 7 days (this from the CDC) yet I see people REUSING the mask..TOUCHING the mask and then rubbing their eyes...
I am NOT AGAINST taking protective measures...but can we PLEASE take measures that are EFFECTIVE and EDUCATE people instead of going on every social media and saying "QUICK WASH YOUR MOUTH UT WITH WARM WATER THAT WILL DO IT!
But no..we get Sheeple who hear the FIRST thing put out there and rush to say "this is IT!" and then laugh at people in China who say "Bull bile cures Corona"
Expy, this is just the tip of the iceberg that I have questions about....I don't feel I have the right to tell ANYONE concerned with their own health..you should or should not do ANYTHING....but I have a BIG problem with people coming up to ME and saying "You can't go to work today because someone may make YOU sick...." Will they next come up and force me to drink bull bile because "it's good for me?"
So you just go ahead with the others and rationalize that I said "oh lets pretend nothing is wrong"
This is nothing short of mindless panic
We aren't supposed to be going anywhere we don't need to, and I've heard of people needing to carry a "hall pass" from their boss if they're an essential worker, so it stands to reason there are cops out there pulling the old stop-and-frisk on people they think are out when they don't need to be. What can they even do beyond telling people they should go home?
-I know When *I* use the mask..I can FEEL my breath escaping AROUND the mask (next to my nose...my eyes) not THRU the mask....
You need a complete seal or it won't work. That's obvious, and also why the general public would never use them right, because they're not comfortable for long if they're on right.
-Further... the Virus can live ON the mask for up to 7 days (this from the CDC) yet I see people REUSING the mask..TOUCHING the mask and then rubbing their eyes...
They can be reused if they're sterilized between uses. Also, don't touch your presumably germ-riddled mask and then touch your eyes. Also, most importantly, if you're the general public, leave them on the shelf for people who genuinely need them.
- instead of going on every social media and saying "QUICK WASH YOUR MOUTH UT WITH WARM WATER THAT WILL DO IT!
Social media has been full of shit and I've spent the last month first debunking the right's reflexive 'Chicken Little' response to the pandemic, then bad medical advice like, "you can gargle the virus right out of you," and "This Doctor in New York has a cure made with Chloroquine and the GUBBAMINT is hiding it from you!"
-I have a BIG problem with people coming up to ME and saying "You can't go to work today because someone may make YOU sick...."
OK, then. What's *your* solution to this? If telling people they have to do anything they don't want to is a bridge too far, how do we stop the spread?
THAT sir is an EXCELLENT question. I am NOT an expert, and i cannot say that MY solution is the RIGHT solution or even the ONLY solution....
#1 is education: Lets get REAL numbers and compare THIS "pandemic" to OTHER pandemics, like RSV, Influenza and SARS. And lets make sure we are comparing APPLES to APPLES....
Example the CDC currently stated for the 2018-2019 Influenza season 80,000 died DIRECTLY as a result of Influenza, this out of 900,000 ACTUALLY HOSPITALIZED for it..that is a death rate of 1.7% Currently in The US Corona has a death rate (using the same reported numbers of Hospitalized to death attributed to the Corona id 1.2%
Also, Education on what kind of PPE *IS* effective and how to use it.... paper maskes (not HEPA) are NOT effective.
They keep saying the ER=s are "overwhelmed" well Mr.Spock,answer me this...how many of them patients are for Corona? and how many are people who are just SCARED and are showing up?????
#2. Once you INFORM me..allow *ME* to make the decision... Absolutely support and require companies to allow employees who feel they are at risk.... To have time off. This has always been a problem in this country...bit do NOT FORCE ME...to take measures to protect myself.... Tell me not to get close than 6 feet from you...Valid and reasonable...fine ME because me and my friends want to have a rocking pool party..FUCK YOU....
#3. Come out with REAL solutions...not just window dressing that politicians do to get votes because the public is scare and want us to do SOMETHING....
Have masks that form a TIGHT SEAL... no you can NOT "sterilize and re-use" an N95 respirator....
I will say it again, if you (as an example) believe that rinsing your mouth out with warm water and keeping 6 feet away from everyone works..YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO IT...but do NOT tell me I can't go with 50 friends for a pool party...that decision is between me and my friend.... after all if YOU are social distancing..why should MY part affect you?.
And lastly...lets come up with actual indicators...what triggers all this precaution..is it a death rate of 1% or more? is it a infection rate of ...whatever? My problem is I don't understand WHY we took THESE precautions...for THIS virus..when I am finding OTHER Viruses just as bad...and we don't do a thing....
This feels more like a manipulation of people than a response to a virus, and if this were something like Ebola, 50-90% death rate...we'd be in DEEP doo doo
#2 - If we made this voluntary, everything would stay open. Literally everything. Any company that closed its doors while its competitors stayed open would go under, so nobody would close and no employees would be allowed to go home. And fuck you and your rocking pool party. Suppressing the spread only works if everybody does it. If you and your friends all go out together somewhere and give it to each other and you all go home and give it to your families and other friends, then it's all for naught, because you guys will be clogging up the ER while the rest of us are trying to not do that. Y'all don't live in a vacuum. Your decisions to go out and party will make things worse for others.
-And lastly...lets come up with actual indicators...what triggers all this precaution..is it a death rate of 1% or more? is it a infection rate of ...whatever? My problem is I don't understand WHY we took THESE precautions...for THIS virus..when I am finding OTHER Viruses just as bad...and we don't do a thing....
You're not finding other viruses are just as bad. You're being presented with charts that look at a few characteristics of a bunch of diseases as if that's a thorough analysis, but it's not. It's like my dad used to say, figures don't lie but liars figure. Stop thinking some dude on Facebook or The Dark Web™ knows more than all the world's public health experts.
If ebola worked like this thing does, we'd be completely boned. Lucky for us, it doesn't.
I dispute your conclusions such as "it only works if we ALL do it" #1. the restrictions right now ARE voluntary..#2. if you determined that "six feet" is the safe distance...then your family can A. Ask you to keep 6 feet away...or B. Say we don't care... in any case it is wrong of you are ANYONE to tell me I cannot gather with a group of consenting adults...for any reason
Yes Our people get all their wisdom from others on TV :)
"It's the one thing that everyone needs", he said.
I missed that, as others have pointed out better,
1. Coronavirus has a HIGHER death rate than the flu and
2. We have ZERO herd immunity (natural OR vaccinated) for a virus that just appeared, so without measures it's gonna flash fire through us as fast as Captain Trips.
The purpose of the measures being taken right now is so that hospitals are not (as) overwhelmed by severe cases and more people can be saved. There's no stopping coronavirus - but after this year we will have herd immunity and it will hopefully just be a normal member of the flu rogues' gallery. It's just a matter of getting thru this year.
For example... The data I have says there are virtually ZERO victims under the age of 60, provided they have no "pre existing" medical condition...
I have done the "death rates" on the influenza illustrated in previous posts...right now Corona does NOT have a higher death rate than the flu (unless the data I am using is flawed...or I am using a different set of data... again example..if I use "hospitalized vs Death" the death rate is MUCH higher, as opposed to Estimated REPORTED compared to actual deaths).
But what interests me MOST is NO one (zero) has answered my ORIGINAL question.... WILL or SHOULD we take these SAME precautions every Influenza Season....Enforced "Social distancing" Mandatory closing of businesses... and what IS the criteria...are they closed for 2 weeks? 3 Months? what's the "Trigger"? A death rate of 1%? 2? how do we prepare for this economically and SOCIALLY? And how much do you (not you personally) dictate to me what *I* can and can not do?
Sure... recommend all you want but at what point am I arrested for going to work or out for a drink? Some would not call that "Social Distancing" they would call it "Martial Law" and Curfew
Coronavirus seems to have no natural impediments and no way to stagger it except for social distancing. So even if it's as mild as you say, imagine everyone having the mild flu at the same time. Hospitals would be atomized. For me, it's really not how "severe" the disease is, unless it's so mild that almost nobody needs hospitalization. It's about timing.
The point of these measures is NOT to stop people from getting coronavirus. It's to stop everyone from getting coronavirus AT THE SAME TIME.
The ONE thing I agree with, is that viruses MUTATE (something I always feared with HIV).
We were able to wipe Smallpox off the face of the earth, because of Herd Immunity....
Unfortunately for both Corona AND Influenza, if it mutates, the immunization may become useless (unless and until a new vaccine is synthesized, or enough people survive).
So you have my FULL attention...but it DOES take over a year to develop and PRODUCE vaccines. I am not sure these current measures will result in the outcome you seek...and I would still like to see decision points developed to say yes..NOW we need this.
I woudl also like to compliment you, that's the best thought out reply I have seen so far :) Something I can agree with.
Totally agree with you on so much of this. However i will stick with that the attack on the respiratory system is a bit more scary than the normal flu, swine, and bird. And having been exposed to all three, and believe me, bird flu was not fun, i never needed to be hospitalized because I was careful about how i handled it. I took immunity boosters, flu suppressants, stayed hydrated, kept clean and hygienic, and was careful about interactions with others. If I got the flu, it was normally the 24hr flu. swine flue was a 48 hour flu. Bird flu had me cooking for 3 weeks, i still worked every day though.
Currently I'm a truck driver. I'm pretty isolated in nearly everything I do in my daily life. My interactions with others is already distant and limited. The worse i have to look forward to is seasonal allergies.
I'm sick of the fear mongering. im sick of the science deniers and people completely discrediting an actual treatment for covid-19 just because of their Trump Derangement Syndrome is so sever, that "orange man bad and anything orange man likes or says is bad" is all they ever preach. The President could come out tomorrow with a vaccine and cure and there will be protesters demanding the right to die and be infected by a serious flu.
You could argue ANY illness is "Scary" and while most people equate influenza to Nausea and Vomiting (which is actually Gastroenteritis). it is actually a respiratory disease.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm
As I asked above...My question gravitates back to.... what IS a reasonable response...
In the military we have a habit of starting out by defining both Decision points AND...how do we measure Success?
If we move PAST COVID-19... to the NEXT "Pandemic" What should we, the General public, look for to indicate we need to take these measures AGAIN?
Right now someone with COVID can be contagious and spreading it for 14 days.... (and many show no Signs or symptoms or only MILD symptoms..walking around spreading the disease).
Those that DO get sick..go to the Doctor or Hospital.... who are unaware of this AIRBORNE Virus..and infecting the very Healthcare workers we rely on to find a CURE.
These Healthcare workers do not immediately alert the CDC or WHO..until we get a (Dramatic pause) DEATH rate. (Meanwhile people are STILL walking around for 14 days spreading the disease).
The CDC and WHO "Swing into action" well BEST case scenario, 72 hrs to culture a pathogen (provided you isolated it in the first place) Meanwhile...still spreading.....
OK we GOT t..it is CoVID-20! (fictional) well if we can even DEVELOP a Vaccine...that will be minimum 1 year...
So I REALLY want to know.....WHAT is my KEY indicator..as opposed to some Bozo on Fox or CNN going "PANDEMIC PANDEMIC!"
Next...how do we measure effectiveness? We been spreading this virus for what..3 months? and Jesus... now that we are LOOKING for it...THE INFECTION RATE IS UP! (Go figure).
Do we go forward developing social rules where everyone remains isolated, never able to touch or be in the room with another human being?
We could eliminate the common cold that way (not really because it is airborne.)
Or MAYBE..we coudl EDUCATE ourselves... we could SAY... Hey, I am 57 years old..healthy...I m going to get a Headache...some aches and pains, a cough..and in a week go back to work. We COULD say..My mom is 87, has Asthma and COPD... If you want her to stay safe...I would NOT take her out in public until this passes...
Or we COULD just rely on Social media...scream and panic every time they say "Pandemic" control other people by ordering Isolation, cancelling flights etc... and I can play the stock market WITH them...Sell off high, watch it crash by back in when the "all clear" is given :)